Fumbling the Future or Forging Ahead: Eyes (and Minds) Wide Open

The major labels wanted to kill the single. Instead they killed the album. The association wanted to kill Napster. Instead it killed the compact disc. And today it's not just record stores that are in trouble, but the labels themselves, now belatedly embracing the Internet revolution without having quite figured out how to make it pay.

At this point, it may be too late to win back disgruntled music lovers no matter what they do. As one music industry lawyer, Ken Hertz, said recently, "The consumer's conscience, which is all we had left, that's gone, too."

It's tempting for us to gloat. By worrying more about quarterly profits than the bigger picture, by protecting their short-term interests without thinking about how to survive and prosper in the long run, record-industry bigwigs have got what was coming to them. It's a disaster they brought upon themselves. Spinning into Oblivion - New York Times April 5, 2007 Subscription Required

The authors of this article speak from experience - they owned a small record store that ultimately went bust, and now operate an on-line music service. The story of how the advance of the Internet is bringing on the decline of the recording industry is instructive beyond the impact it is having on how we buy and listen to music. This is not an isolated incident.

Reading this article, I was reminded of one of my favorite books from business school 15 years ago. Fumbling the Future describes how Xerox invented the PC, the graphic user interface, the keyboard and mouse - all these things we take for granted now were novel in the 1970s. In 1973, Xerox had billions of dollars from the copier monopoly, and had brought together scientists at their Palo Alto Research Center (PARC) to do great things. What they didn't have was a culture to adopt and take advantage of some of the fascinating breakthroughs they were making in computer science and high tech. One of the hardest things to do is to have the perspective to realize when you are in the midst of something revolutionary.

But Steve Jobs had that perspective, and after visiting PARC in 1979, he went on to drive the creation of the Macintosh computer and the rest is, as they say, history.

The visitors from Apple saw a computer that was designed to be easy to use, a machine that anybody could operate and find friendly...even the French.

Bill Atkinson
Designer, Macintosh Development Team
I think mostly what...what we got in that hour and a half was inspiration and just sort of basically a bolstering of our convictions that a more graphical way to do things would make this business computer more accessible.

Larry Tesler
After an hour looking at demos they understood our technology, and what it meant more than any Xerox executive understood after years of showing it to them.

Steve Jobs
Basically they were copier heads that just had no clue about a computer or what it could do. And so they just grabbed eh grabbed defeat from the greatest victory in the computer industry. Xerox could have owned the entire computer industry today. Could have been you know a company ten times its size. Could have been IBM - could have been the IBM of the nineties. Could have been the Microsoft of the nineties.

For Steve Jobs the road to Damascus passed through Palo Alto. He persuaded the Apple board to invest in technology copying what he'd seen at Xerox Parc - his instrument of change. They hired a hundred engineers and started developing a new PC codenamed Lisa. But there were problems. They couldn't get it to work properly and the pricetag was heading toward $10,000 - way too much for the average PC buyer. Jobs' domineering style drove everyone nutstoo so the board ousted him from his own pet project.

Steve Jobs
You know I brooded for a few months, but it was not very long after that that it really occurred to me that if we didn't do something here the Apple 2 was running out of gas and we needed to do something with this technology fast or else Apple might cease to exist as the company that it was.

Jobs found his answer from Jeff Raskin, Apple employee number 31. Raskin's idea was a $600 computer - as easy to use as a toaster - code-named Macintosh, after America's favourite apple. Jobs liked the price but not Raskin's design ideas. So Steve took over the Macintosh project, determined to make it a cheaper Lisa. Triumph of the Nerds, Part III

Oh, by the way, Steve Jobs also invested $10 million in a company that he turned into Pixar, which he later sold to Disney for $7.4 billion. And, under his direction, Apple brought us the iPod. Sure, he's one in 10 Billion, but the key here is his attitude and willingness to keep an open mind, connect the dots, stick to his principles, and forge ahead. Just this week, Apple brought the EMI catalogue on-line without digital rights management (DRM), which by the way is a technology designed to preserve the status quo and resist the impact of change.

To drive home this lesson of keeping an open mind, they taught us the lesson of Xerox in my Organizational Change class. The impact of conventional group thinking on our paradigms and assumptions is stronger than we realize. Just how significant is the maturing Internet and this growing trend of Metropolitan Broadband? I believe it is more dramatic than we can acknowledge right now, because like the executives at Xerox, we lack the imagination to conceptualize such a dramatic change.

Two years ago, I tried to start knitting together the different threads into a more holistic interpretation of what we are going through. The argument in the NY Times article conforms to my white paper from May 2005, On Structural Change.

In that paper, I pointed out that the continuing advances of the maturing Internet imply that all network-based enterprises, indeed all companies that distribute digital content in its many forms, are bound to come under increasing pressure from the Internet. It is inevitable. We've already seen venerable institutions like Encyclopedia Brittanica and AT&T succumb with surprising speed. We're watching other businesses come under increasing pressure, like the lead article describes. The challenge for all of us is to envision the dramatic new future these trends point to and start making changes now.

The new metropolitan broadband industry is driven by such foundational change, both for its beneficial impact on government efficiency, and for other economic and societal benefits. The new businesses that will follow the installation of these networks will increasingly challenge traditional business models. Those cities that get on board this train are betting on this future and will capture more benefit from change than those who opt out or delay. They're playing out the drama of Joseph's Schumpeter's Creative Destruction, which says that a fundamental aspect of capitalism is the churn of old business ideas and the new ideas that arise to challenge them.

But in capitalist reality as distinguished from its textbook picture, it is not that kind of competition which counts [price competition] but the competition from the new commodity, the new technology, the new source of supply, the new type of organization (the largest-scale unit of control for instance)-competition which commands a decisive cost or quality advantage and which strikes not at the margins of the profits and the outputs of the existing firms but at their foundations and their very lives. Joseph Schumpeter

The upcoming changes and disruptions to local economies brought about by Metropolitan Broadband are the kernel of the new Economic Development opportunity that these cities will enjoy.

The big question facing cities is not IF this change will occur, but HOW FAST it will occur and HOW it will happen, and the potential for local impact, good or bad, and as always, the Devil is in the Details. City leaders will increasingly face a choice: a) Deny Change and Fumble the Future; or b) Accept Change and Move Forward Deliberately. City leaders who guess correctly and position their cities in the face of upcoming trends, like San Marcos and other cities adopting metropolitan broadband, are taking a calculated gamble.

The question for all city leaders these days is whether to delay in order to gather more information or to take prudent action now, while they continue to learn more.

My question is "Why aren't more cities taking the requisite first steps: a) becoming more aware of the potential and the alternatives they face; and b) mobilizing their populations to prepare for change?" Because I believe the coming changes will be dramatic, and will happen faster than we can imagine. In my opinion, there is less risk in starting now and moving with deliberation and prudence, than in waiting any longer.

Posted on April 05, 2007 at 09:19 PM | Comments (0)

Learning to Live within Boundaries

In the previous blog, I talked about the issue of complexity. Another hard pill to swallow is the fact that, when it comes to municipal wireless projects, we're bounded by some basic constraints that govern any procurement or project.

I'm referring to a buisness maxim that I call the "Business Golden Triangle." You may recognize it by another name, but you've either already heard of this approach in some shape or form, or you'll recognize its truths as common sense.

The rule says that in procurements and projects, you cannot have your cake and eat it too. Surprise, surprise. Disappointing, but that's the reality of adult life. The three aspects of the golden triangle that you control and that impact your prospects are Time (fast v. slow, sooner v. later), Quality (high qualtiy v. low quality), and Money (less expensive v. more expensive).

The Business Golden Triangle Maxim says, "Only two of these three are available to any consumer." To recognize its truth, just try to imagine getting just what you want that is very high quality, immediately, for very little money - that's a fantasy world. Or the polar oppostite, getting something of very low quality over a long period, with project delays, while spending a lot - that's getting taken to the cleaners. So, the rational choices in a procurement or business decision are to pick two factors that are most important and relax the third constraint:

1) Fast and less expensive, but lower quality. Strategy: 1) Lower your standards (accept less quality or fewer options, usually acheived through extensive planning and negotiation between stakeholders to determine the must-have items and the nice-to-have items and then setting priorities).

2) High quality and less expensive, but takes more time. Strategy: Start the project earlier (to be a responsible steward of time as a resource, a city would start a low-grade project immediately to get a jump on things and move at their own pace, to allow adequate time to find savings and devleop creative approaches that leverage existing assets or competitive advantages).

3) Fast and high quality, but costs more. Strategy: Pay more (budget more to accommodate a higher expense, create a strong business case to justify a financial strategy, identify alternate grant or funding sources, etc.).

Of course, there is nothing to prevent the wise consumer from doing all three of these strategies, in order to keep his options open - doing that would provide optimal flexibility to let the city then choose the constraint to relax when it came time for a procurement or decision.

The bottom line? If you are interested in municipal wireless as an option for your community, you are best served to bring in professional help to find the right fit, devise a strategy, and develop a business case, all of which will position you and allow you and your city:

1) to get serious about things sooner than later;
2) to retain the most options for when you do have to decide;
3) to leverage time as a resource;
4) to get the best prices; and
5) to keep quality high.

There's no substitute for taking the bull by the horns and taking responsibility for your own destiny. There's no substitute for approaching a project with as many factors in your favor as possible. And there's no substitute for spending a little up front to save a lot on the back end.

Posted on November 22, 2006 at 02:41 PM | Comments (0)

Grinding the Axes: Three Variables Drive Complexity in Muni Wireless Networks

For the past 18 months, I've been studying the municipal wireless industry and trying on different business development models that might kick start this industry by solving some of the thorny issues that bedevil both the vendors and the cities. While I'm not ready to raise the white flag in surrender, I have to acknowledge that we are unlikely to simplify things to a great degree anytime soon. I will hasten to add that there are still some things we can all do to speed up the deal flow and the learning, but we are quite simply, bounded by unavoidable constraints.

So looking at the state of complexity and risk with regard to municipal networks, I've got good news and bad news. I think the preferred method is to give the good news first, so here goes.

The good news: Collectively, we're getting better and better at this.

As an industry, we know more than we ever have about how to do municipal wireless networks. Industry experience over the past two years - multiple business models, a growing bookshelf of case studies with new lessons learned, aggressive entry by technology vendors, a maturing field of system integrators and service providers, declining technology cost curves, and a few of us ever-more-experienced consultants who continue to learn by doing - all that translates into dramatic improvement in the odds for success and lower risk for those cities who are interested in launching a municipal wireless network (and willing to listen to and act on good advice).

The bad news: No matter what we do, acquiring and running a municpal wireless network will remain a complex process.

This is an industry based on a complex system of variables inside a three dimensional matrix, comprised of three axes: technology, business, and politics. Each of these axes provides a limited amount of wiggle room that will allow cities to drive out complexity and cost and lower risk. That's where MetroNetIQ and a select number of consultants in this new space come in. The good ones will show you how to work the margins to improve your situation regarding technology, business, and political factors that are still within your "Circle of Control."

Technology: Even as the options get better, they also multiply over time, adding complexity to the choices you face. Because its a dynamic scenario, the situation becomes more complex over time. And the fact that we are dealing with radio waves and spectrum means that the laws of physics and government regulation combine to create an incredibly complex scenario loaded up with variables, and to make certain constraints, like network design and environmental management, unavoidable.

Business: Which business model is best? Two years ago, it looked like the Municipally Owned and Operated model. Last year the Public Private Partnership model gained ascendancy, and now I'm hearing that the Municipally Owned, but Privately Operated model has legs. What is the temperature for participation and risk inside your city? How much money do you have access to? This boils down to a political decision after all the business variables are laid out, which leads us to the third axis.

Politics: This topic is a true wild card. Wherever there are human beings and competing interests, politics will be present to complicate matters. In local government, there are politics to deal with in between departments, on the City Council, among the stakeholders in the community, etc., etc., etc. Do you have a strong leader pushing your city into this industry? Or do you have a set of competing barons and political fiefs that add to the complex environment? Whatever your local situation, political issues and risks are best dealt with through anticipation, scenario planning, and political strategy.

All three of these axes must be managed in a Municipal Wireless Project, or the risks mount considerably. For instance, I believe the conflict in San Francisco that I covered in a blog yesterday is the result of an ineffective strategy to manage the political issues and risks. Either that, or it could be that this conflict is just the nature of the beast and there's just no planning around political competitors who would undermine your plans, no matter what you do.

That said, the prudent city will acknowledge the complexity in municipal wireless project, spend ample time contemplating these three axes of project planning and management, devise strategies, and at some point, seek outside help, whether from another city, a vendor, a system integrator, a consultant, or a service provider. In this situation, there is safety in numbers and One truly is the Lonliest Number. The worst thing a city can do, in my opinion, is to jump on the first option presented and move forward; better to go slowly, but surely, step by step, and get input and guidance from experienced hands before taking action.

Posted on November 22, 2006 at 11:18 AM | Comments (0)

Stick to Your Knitting, Work Within Your Circle of Control

A final word on Ensign-McCain, S. 1504, the Broadband Investment and Consumer Choice Act of 2005, the latest in a series of bills in Congress to look at rewriting the Federal Telecom Act of 1996 (FTA 96). As if to demonstrate my Tempest in a Teapot message in my blog from Wednesday on this topic, Rumblings in Washington, we have seen a flurry of Internet postings on this piece of legislation in the last 48 hours, with special attention paid to the final section of the bill, which I can only describe as a silly attempt to hog-tie municipally-owned networks.

While most of the blogs and articles lambast this language in particular, and make their case against this bill, I chose to recommend that you check it out, and then get on with your task, which is to build a network and provide for your local broadband connectivity needs. The simple fact is that if you were to just keep your nose to the grindstone and focus on what is in front of you, acting early to get a network in place, it will not matter for you that Congress bans such a network - they will not undo what you have done, as evidenced by the grandfather provisions included in such legislation.

These messages - Stick to Your Knitting and Work Within Your Circle of Control, are, I believe, more compelling than expending any more energy or effort to debunk a bill that has little chance at becoming the law of the land as it is currently written. Bills metamorphosize during the legislative process, and whatever we will get to replace FTA 96 will be a while in coming. So how can you be effective at this juncture? For one, spend as little time on such water cooler talk as possible and focus on the task at hand.

My recommendations in this regard stem from my adherence to the Seven Habits of Highly Effective People by Stephen Covey, which most of you are probably familiar with. I posted two new books on the Recommended Reading list this morning, recognizing the importance of staying focused and not being distracted by all the commotion in Washington, or in your particular state capital, for that matter, should this virus of Legislative-Municipal-Network-Bans-to-Protect-Incumbents spread in your direction.

In my opinion, the best innoculation against such a virus is to maintain a focus on local issues and getting the job done. We can become paralyzed with fear and frustration as we watch the powers that be take steps that would directly and negatively impact our ability to manage our local affairs. Better to let it blow by you as you go about your business, as the people of Lafayette did in passing their fiber plan bond package, or those in Philadelphia, or Minneapolis with their municipal wireless RFPs. Get busy and it will not matter what they do in Washington, because it will be too late to stop you.

You can see that if you were to apply these habits to your network project, you could start to see some results.

A. Personal Independence
1. Be Proactive. (initiative) - Get educated here on this site and elsewhere. Kick off a local campaign by asking your city leaders why you don't have such a project on the books and asking your community leaders what they would do with such a tool.
2. Begin with the End in Mind. (leadership) Take the lead and sketch out a compelling vision for your community. Publicize it.
3. First Things First (Management) Begin a diligent planning process by identifying the steps you need to take to make things happen.

B. Social Interdependence
4. Seek First to Understand, and Then to be Understood (listening) Take surveys and poll the communities that make up your city. Ask what they need and how a broadband communications infrastructure could help them to meet their needs.
5. Go For Win Win Solutions (cooperation) Find a way to incorporate private sector solutions and needs in with your public sector needs and approach.
6. Synergize (creativity) Take the time to design a network that works for all parties, meets all the purposes defined, and can be built for the least amount of money.

C. Regeneration
7. Sharpen the Saw (health and balance) Keep things in perspective and realize that community integration is more important than speed. Better to move as one than to race ahead with a plan that lacks widespread buy-in. Transform your temporary project approach into a permanent means for binding the community and planning for your future.

It all starts with Step One. Do Something.

Oh, the other book I recommended is the classic Dale Carnegie's How to Win Friends and Influence People. Given our current political climate, I think we all would benefit from revisting this book written in 1937.

Posted on July 29, 2005 at 07:35 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

First Ever Muniwireless Conference

Muniwireless 2005 in San Francisco, Sept 26-27 After two years in the trenches, wireless pioneer Esme Vos is going to host her first conference. And it looks great! Here's a short list of topics:

Successfully deploying a wireless network
Calculating ROI
Writing a Great RFP
How to Get Political and Public Support for your Wireless Network
Applications and Muni Wireless
How to Fund your Network
Battling Anti-Municipal Broadband Bills

Check out Muniwireless today and make plans - San Francisco is nice in September.

Posted on June 17, 2005 at 07:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Wireless Planning Explained

The Wednesday IT special section of the Financial Times had a very readable article on wireless planning,
Integrated Plan Keeps Costs Down. The article gives a great overview of planning issues for the enterprise, including the city government planner. As the author states, mobility strategies require specific management software and IT skills. This is a helpful planning document.

Posted on June 15, 2005 at 09:17 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Global WISP Directory

Global Listing of Wireless ISPs & Related Organizations - WISP Directory provides browsers with a valuable tool to identify a local Wireless ISP company. This directory tracks WISPs who register themselves on the site in what amounts to a Yellow Pages directory of WISPs. There is no indication on this Web site on whether the local WISP has experience with metropolitan mesh networking, but this is clearly a place to start in evaluation and local planning.

Posted on June 13, 2005 at 04:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Planning Resources

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These resources will give you a good start in the planning process. I recommend you download these and go through them one by one, making note of what is especially relevant for your proposed project. You will need to register on UnwireMyCity.com first before downloading these documents! It just takes a minute.

Five Keys to Successful Metro-Scale Wi-Fi Deployment This Tropos document is succinct and derives its wisdom from the nearly 200 deployments of Tropos gear already out in the field.

MIT White Paper on Muni Broadband Networks This Dec 2003 MIT study on local government involvement is prescient in its focus on Municipally Owned Utitlities (MOUs) and the potential for leverage.

A Business Case Whitepaper - Maximizing Profitability: Tropos Networks and the Wireless ISP City officials should benefit from this document that describes the business case issues for the private sector WISP that deploys a metropolitan wireless network.

Structural Change Chart I captured my thoughts on structural change in this March 2005 document, only to see the reasoning mirrored in Tom Friedman's new book The World is Flat in May. The bottom line is that change is all around, and it's moving faster and faster. The message is get prepared and understand what the change means.

UnwireMyCity Principles for Planning This document has my long-held prinicples for planning and for business management captured. Print this and pin it on the wall to keep what is important in front of you.

Posted on May 19, 2005 at 11:17 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack

Mesh Network Planning Tool

Check out this planning tool for mesh networks. Austin start-up Wireless Valley, has released the Wireless Valley Wireless LAN MeshPlanner. With a background in planning tools for cellular deployments inside office buildings, Wireless Valley is coming outside.

Posted on May 18, 2005 at 08:19 PM