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FEATURED TOPICDigital Transition -The term "Digital Transition" describes the process all organizations must go through in the 21st Century, as they leverage new technologies that provide new options for Applications, Equipment, Processes, and Networks that make them more effective. In contrast, the term "Municipal Wireless" is limiting. It puts the network technology ahead of the application and process changes that drive the business case. ORIENTATION |
The 25 Word Challenge, 2 for the Road"Be the change you seek," said Gandhi; The Internet has community on the rise - Will you accept my invitation to put 25 words of advice or wisdom into a blog post? Here's how you might go about it. 1. Look for something you see too much or too little of. It will be my challenge to a creative way to connect all of the ideas together. In a giant "25 words of wisdom" blog post, featuring what you wrote. Are you in? Surely you have 25 words to spare for this one. Posted on July 19, 2008 at 09:26 PM | Comments (0) Look How Far We've Come, Baby!From back in the archives of the very early days of Wireless ... we bring you (drum-roll) ... MR. MICROPHONE!!! Sometimes - especially in these dark times as ISPs crumble around us and withdraw from the market - we forget how far we've really come ... so much seriousness just begs for a little perspective .... Thirty years ago, pitchman Ron Popeil took some basic radio technology and produced the Mr. Microphone, only $14.88, just in time for Christmas! Mr. Pop History - Sometime around late 1978, but the TV airwaves came alive with Ronco's Mr. Microphone in 1979. Who could forget that 70's guy exclaiming "Hey good looking, we'll be back to pick you up later." Mr. Microphone was actually a low-power FM modulator, but through the magic of Ronco advertising, the device was turned into a hip tool to pick-up girls. The only problem with this commercial: you had to know what station the receiving FM radio was tuned to, so you could infiltrate their radio. Getting the frequency just right would have taken much insight and tuning time. Oh well, it's only TV. It's one of the classic commercials of the 1970's. Ask Mr. Pop History Posted on May 17, 2008 at 09:10 PM | Comments (0) Happy Birthday, MetroNetIQ! Three Years Young!
How's this for some food for thought - Birthday Cake! MetroNetIQ as a blog is 3 years old today. I published my first blogs on the website UnwireMyCity.com. on May 16, 2005. 8 months later, I redesigned the site, renamed it MetroNetIQ, and since then, collectively I've published close to 700 articles...of course, my writings tend to run a little longer than most blog posts... This is a project that has always been somewhat selfish: it's a way for me to gather my thoughts as I consult with clients and converse with friends in this very small industry, not much more than that. It's a little strange to blog, pulling thoughts from my head and sending them out onto the Internet for all to read, but I've grown quite used to it, come to enjoy it. You are my (mostly) anonymous readers and I appreciate your reading and paying attention to the blog. I get a moderate, growing amount of traffic on this site - nothing to blow the trumpets about, but I'm gratified to see the upward slope of the curve when I graph the results. MetroNetIQ is at about 4,000 unique visitors / 35,000 page views a month. By major Internet traffic'd sites, that's not much, but it represents a community of sorts, and to that extent, I'm gratified, because community development is a core driver and passion for me. Still, it never ceases to amaze me how the readership has steadily grown since my launch, with absolutely no promotion, just word of mouth. That indicates to me that interest in this topic is growing, and that readers like my writing enough to come back. I've never felt compelled to drive traffic to my site, I guess I've always been too busy to bother. I'm more interested to spend my time writing and speaking out. After all, I make my money by consulting, I only gather my thoughts here. I count on you all to spread the word, link to my site, and tell others if you read something you think is worth sharing. For a look back at where this journey began, check out these original blogs posted in the May 2005 archive. I feel like we've come a long way on this site in three short years. Back then, I began by clearing out my laptop of files I had saved when I posted those first posts...but I soon warmed to the whole idea of blogging and taking public stands on issues. It's been a fun ride for me so far, hope it has been the same for you, and that you'll keep coming back and spreading the word on the benefits of getting our society connected and mobilized. Posted on May 16, 2008 at 06:43 AM | Comments (0) Home has a Hold on MeMy last post talked about Small Towns, and the post before it about the impact of Rural Broadband. I'm getting all sappy here: as I concluded that post on small towns with an image of the Texas Hill Country, where I have a small ranch - call it a ranchette, only 20 acres but I know every inch...the images I looked at made me realize how pretty the central Texas Hill Country is, and how much I like it. Somehow, I was reminded of Gary P. Nunn, the Texas songwriter, and his song, You Ask Me What I like About Texas. Years ago, in my wild, misspent youth, I was a bartender at the Last Waterhole Saloon in Amsterdam's Red Light District It was fall of 1982, I was 25 and single, and that period only lasted from sometime in September until just after Christmas - only about 13 weeks, when you think about it... During my day shift, I bartended and checked people in to the youth hostel upstairs (the saloon was on the Warmoesstraat, just 2 blocks from the train station, just off the Damrak, the main street in downtown Amsterdam). The Last Waterhole was one of those cafes you hear about in Amsterdam, where you can get stuff to smoke...it was, quite frankly, one of the wildest places I've ever been to on the planet... Picture of a pub on the Warmoesstraat...
The Last Waterhole looked something like this, only darker, and much more sinister, more skanky, well, just considerably more scummy, if you will. Three pool tables and a stage and heroin junkies I had to kick out during the day...Needless to say, many stories ensued....it seems like another lifetime ago, indeed, it was. If my kids only knew! I used to describe the bar scene as something similar to a bar scene in the Star Wars.
Imagine the thick smoke, young people from all over the world, partying like they were, well, on vacation ... loud rock and roll ...green Grolsch bottles and draft Heinekens in little pils glasses... One story connects Amsterdam to Texas: Gary P. Nunn was coming for a European Tour in 1983, and the Pride of Texas band had gotten back together in order to back him up on his tour. They practiced during the day, during my shifts, so I listened to the same songs, over. and over. and over. again. and again. Some nights I drove with the band to Belgium, or northern Holland, and acted as a roadie and assistant for their shows. Other days I drove with the promoter and saloon owner out to Paris, or Stockholm, to line up gigs for Gary and his tour with my friends from the Pride of Texas... It was a gas to be a cowboy in Europe. But I did miss Texas. I bring all this up to underscore the importance of home for all of us, the pull it has on our heartstrings, and the association of geography and location. I think you have to be an immigrant or an ex patriot at least once in your life to really understand what it's like to miss home - deeply. And I was only a temporary immigrant back then, hardly with an experience to match those of millions of immigrants ... but I did miss home that year I spent bumming around Europe. I think it's especially poignant when you reach a certain age and can appreciate the value of home, family, and community. And I think it's very heartfelt, this attachment to home, especially for those who live in small towns, because the "home" experience is so much more immediate in small towns. Posted on April 23, 2008 at 07:39 PM | Comments (0) Sh Boom, Sha BoomLife would be a dream ... if more people learned about metropolitan broadband by reading MetroNetIQ.com ... if you like what you read, please tell your friends! Posted on April 18, 2008 at 11:07 PM | Comments (0) Race has Nothing to do with Metropolitan BroadbandIt's a little early for Thanksgiving, but we did just observe the Easter Holiday. So one thing I'm thankful for today is that Race has absolutely nothing to do with wireless broadband. But it has everything to do with Idiocy and Stupidity. The thing is, this debate that's underway in our country, at least in some corners of informed dialogue, does produce some pretty bizarre links out on the web, and some pretty funny ones. It's been a while since I had a good belly laugh to a Richard Pryor video, or for that matter, to an Eddie Murphy video... so, just to share, here you go - these clips are courtesy of that wonderful, irreverent TV show, Saturday Night Live... I'm guessing this one is from the 1970s ... ah, I remember them well... So of course, now we'll talk about race on my blog, which has everything to do with wireless broadband, but also has a lot to do with society and how we live together and get our work done - sometimes, one needs to step up and say what needs to be said. And I think what needs to be said right now after watching that Saturday Night Live video and laughing my ass off is that Racism is Idiotic, Inane, and Stupid. To underscore the inanities of racism, we have this video, also from SNL, from the 1980s, my guess - based on Eddie Murphy's youth?? Here's a different perspective... Then, there's Chris Rock ... what would a tour through racial humor be without Chris Rock ... it's harsh, and funny, but who can argue that this subject isn't complex? ...hold on to your hat... How about Dave Chappelle? As a blind KKK white power monger? How stupid can racists be? Or something from across the pond? And for me, the classic, from Mel Brooks ..."the sheriff is a ...." and "excuse me while I whip this out." and "the next man makes a move, the n**** gets it." On a more thoughtful note, I remember these scenes from Star Trek when I was about 10, but often, I watched the show in .... black and white ...hmmmmmmm. OK, after all that, I feel a need to clean it up a bit ... so, here's the cleaner side of Chris Rock ...introducing Barack Obama... Now, here we are, in the 2000s ...all kidding aside, let's hope that some day soon we no longer need to look to Saturday Night Live, or Richard Pryor or Eddie Murphy or Chris Rock or Dave Chappelle or Mel Brooks and Cleavon Little or any other comedic geniuses to tell us what we all know - racism may be hilarious and really really funny when lampooned, but at its heart, racism is stupid, and racists are morons and deserve our undying disrespect. Racism should die out, racists deserve our scorn wherever we encounter them, and the sooner racism is gone, the better...for my kids, and yours. It's a cancer in our society. We've had to look to comedians to laugh instead of crying, because our society is sick. This is sad, it's messed up ... For truth about Race in America, we need to start talking about it and forge a consensus that it is simply intolerable..I think that this speech will weather the winds of time and be seen as an historic event. Enjoy. I loved my grandfather, but he was a racist, born in Georgia in 1902 and raised in deep East Texas, dying in the 1980s. I loved my uncle, but he was a racist too. They're both long gone, but their memories linger. It was painful to watch them and hear their hateful comments growing up, and I never felt comfortable watching them express their scorn for black people. They looked ignorant as they spoke, and they were, yet I loved them. It was confusing to a young boy growing up. Racism is complex, but it is wrong. Though racism is a complex issue, that's all the more reason to address it and find our common bonds and come together as a community to celebrate our humanity together and repair our wounds. We should continue to laugh at the stupidness of racism, but we should also work together to make racism a thing of the past. Posted on March 24, 2008 at 08:53 PM | Comments (0) Is this a Great Country, Or What?2,180,731 views in three months - you'll want to watch this one twice ... More proof that a) You Tube is eating the Internet and b) We've Fallen Through the Looking Glass... OK, maybe it just seems that way when you see videos like this ... Posted on March 13, 2008 at 05:04 AM | Comments (0) The Blob Returns - YouTube is Eating the InternetThe end is in sight! By October 1, 2012, we should see ALL Internet traffic coming from YouTube videos! REPENT, ALL YOU BANDWIDTH HOGS, THE END IS NIGH!! Don't believe me? Just get out your graph paper and plot these three data points below and then extend the line to where it crosses the 100% mark... OK, so maybe my grasp of statistics and use of straight line trend extensions doesn't exactly hold water ... still, consider that ... 2% JANUARY 29, 2007 Surveys: Internet Traffic Touched by YouTube 10% JUNE 19, 2007 YouTube Comprises 10% Of All Internet Traffic | WebProNews 20% FEBRUARY 1, 2008 Alexa.com YouTube traffic statistics OK, so, I've already admitted that I'm no expert on statistics, but I do believe that this is a statistically significant growth curve, and I agree that it supports the concerns about the ultimate capacity of our dearly beloved Internet, fast becoming as critical an infrastructure as our electric grid. (See this article on the coming ExaFlood!!) Personally on my own little website, with our minuscule level of traffic, we've nevertheless seen a tremendous growth in bandwidth - from 392.67 MB in January 2007 to 1.31 GB in February 2008. Sure, we should adjust for a doubling of traffic in the last year (don't get too excited, the numbers are still fairly trivial). Nevertheless, it's easy to see that the big leap was in October last year, when I started adding YouTube videos to the site - we went from 653.8 MB to 928.1 MB in one month, from Sept to Oct. When I adjust the data for growth in visitors to my site, we see a 37% increase in bandwidth used by this site each month... Let's check back again about the time that college football season starts (September 1) - YouTube traffic should be at 30%, given the political season and the current growth trends?? Care to make any bets?? Besides being fun to track, why should this matter? Well, it does ... As more and more Internet traffic is video traffic, and as more and more subscribers start using broadband to gain access to the Internet, we will face some mixture of these consequences, to an ever growing degree. 1. Network performance degradation, most likely in the form of slower uploading and downloading Clearly, when it comes to broadband, I don't understand why we would spend so much energy and effort at trying to fit all of our traffic into an ever tighter tight box (i.e., current network capacity) and so little energy at trying to figure out a way to get a robust sustainable infrastructure built out. Folks, we're going to have to spend the capital on broadband, so let's get busy talking about the best ways to get this infrastructure built! There will be plenty of time to keep arguing about how we use it, but let's all agree that we need more broadband infrastructure NOW, not later. The time has come to get busy and start building!! Posted on March 05, 2008 at 05:00 PM | Comments (0) Can't we all just .... relax?I don't know about you all, but primary politics are exhausting me...now we have the Potomac Primaries....sheesh. Having written a pretty serious post this afternoon - on Retroactive Immunity here - I guess I feel a need to goof off a little and relax. Politics may be wacky, but let's face it, political humor is an age-old American tradition. So, here you go, some 21st Century Political Humor....these political satire videos are guaranteed to offend everyone .... let's hope! Enjoy these while you check out the real returns from the primaries this evening... Here's a classic video covering our current President's speaking style... This one is called "Obama and Your Mama" - making fun of mothers! Wheeee! And then there's "Obama on the Run" Mike Huckabee is "Taking the High Road' with some pretty low suggestions re his opponents Don Rumsfeld showing off his talents - ah, I remember those days ... those press conferences ... George Bush on "those Global Warmings that are happening" The Hillary Show (w/Howard Dean and special guest John Kerry) Attack on McCain And the last word on politics and government goes to the Masters of Satire, Monty Python Posted on February 12, 2008 at 06:51 PM | Comments (0) Super(b)!
WOW! Superb effort for both teams in this year's Super Bowl. I'm sorry they both couldn't win. That was AWESOME! For once, the Super Bowl lives up to its name! Posted on February 03, 2008 at 09:35 PM | Comments (0) Saturday Night at the MoviesHere's a couple of good DVDs in case you're short of ideas. We get them free from the local library.... helps to lower expectations. Warning - nothing artsy-fartsy here - strict commercialism. Clue from all the way back in 1985, stays true to the board game of the same name, and it's as slapstick as they come. Lots of belly laughs and silly - man, this is silly! Tim Curry, Madeline Kahn, Christopher Lloyd, Michael McKean, and Martin Mull, all locked into a mansion and one of them may be a murderer?? I mean, c'mon, that's what I call Casting with a capital C for Comedy! For everyone who ever had a bad job and dreamed of an escape, this movie is for you. While it's admittedly light fare, I think that Joe Versus the Volcano is the kind of quirky romantic comedy that makes for easy viewing. Made in 1990 and starring Tom Hanks and Meg Ryan, this movie predated 1993's Sleepless in Seattle and You've Got Mail in 1998. This is like eating marshmallows for dinner, but what the hell. I guess, if the chemistry works, you keep going back to the lab for another experiment. Hanks is so young, well, they both are I guess, and they're both cute as buttons - so cute you could just pinch their cheeks! The director, John Patrick Shanley, had just directed that classic Moonstruck in 1987, BTW. Abe Vigoda, "Fish" in Barney Miller, is the coup de grace as the native chief - reminds me of the Hollywood casting of old, where white guys always played Indians. Check it out. Posted on February 02, 2008 at 10:47 PM | Comments (0) Really Achieving Your Childhood DreamsHere is the Last Lecture of Dr. Randy Pausch, a Virtual Reality professor at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh - to really dig in after watching this video, check out this website ...and here's Randy's personal website, with a link also to update the status of his cancer. Carnegie Mellon Professor Randy Pausch, who is dying from pancreatic cancer, gave his last lecture at the university Sept. 18, 2007, before a packed McConomy Auditorium. In his moving talk, "Really Achieving Your Childhood Dreams," Pausch talked about his lessons learned and gave advice to students on how to achieve their own career and personal goals. What better time to sit down and think deep significant thoughts than on one of the first weekends of the new year? This morning, I came across this YouTube video sensation - over 6 million on-line viewings so far - and I have to tell you, this is one of the best 76 minutes and 26 seconds you can spend...unquestionably one of the most motivating, enriching, and enlivening lectures you'll ever hear/watch/attend...after reading this blog, I recommend you take the time to get comfortable and watch this video, with a cup of coffee, tea, glass of wine, beer, whatever refreshes you...you won't regret it. After you see it, I'm betting you'll want to share it. This has really cool information about virtual reality, but far more valuable life lessons - I'll be sharing this with my kids... In the end, listening to a brilliant man who knows he is soon dying is a gift that should not be passed up. Here are some of the most memorable quotes and key lessons he shares. And a running theme throughout the lecture is this:
A Short List of Memorable Quotes and Life Lessons Achieving Your Own Dreams On dreaming: "It's important to have specific dreams." On disappointment: "Experience is what you get when you didn't get what you wanted." On learning: "A head fake is when we learn more important things while ostensibly learning less important things." On persistence: "The brick walls are they to stop the other people, the ones who don't want it bad enough to keep going." On personal relationships and difficult people: "Wait long enough and people will surprise and impress you." Helping Others Realize Their Dreams On conflict: It's very important to know when you're in a pissing match, and it's very important to get out of it as soon as possible." On diplomacy: "How you say things is often as important, or more important, than what you say." On his Vision: "The best way to teach someone something is to have them think they're learning something else....Millions of kids having fun while learning something hard. That's pretty cool. I can deal with that as a legacy." Lessons Learned On the role of parents, mentors, and students: "Mothers are people who love you even when you pull their hair." and "If your kids want to paint their bedroom, let them." and "You're such a good salesman ... be a professor ... you might as well be selling something worthwhile, like education." and "If you present (the task) as a story telling activity, they (girls) are perfectly happy learning to program." On having fun: "I don't know how to not have fun. I'm dying and I'm having fun. And I'm going to keep having fun every day I have left. Because there's no other way to play it. You have to decide whether you are a Tigger or an Eeyore." On loyalty: "Loyalty is a two-way street." Best Piece of Advice for young ladies: "When it comes to men, just ignore everything they say and only pay attention to what they do. It's that simple." On persistence: "Never give up." On listening: "Get a feedback loop and listen to it ... when you do the right thing, good stuff has a way of happening. The hard part is the listening to it. Anybody can get chewed out. When people give you feedback, cherish it and use it." On suffering: "Don't complain, just work harder." And three final pearls: "Be good at something, it makes you valuable." and "Find the best in everybody. No-one is all evil." and "Be prepared, luck is truly where preparation meets opportunity." The bottom line: "This talk's not about dreams, it's about how to live your life."
Finally (this conclusion from me). The Hook, the connection to metropolitan broadband, is this: "City leaders have an opportunity to provide for dreams to be achieved for those in their cities whom they lead. Broadband infrastructure holds the key for some kids somewhere to become leaders as adults, to fulfill their own dreams. We should all work to give them that chance, to help make their futures. It's not easy, but it's worth it in the long run. This is what motivates me." Happy New Year! Posted on January 12, 2008 at 05:29 PM | Comments (0) Wii Little ExperimentAs the Consumer Electronics Show gets underway out in Las Vegas, it's good to keep in mind that all this cool new stuff ultimately gets torn apart and put to new uses by smart people goofing around... For instance, though my son has had a Nintendo Wii for nearly a year, I never knew about this... See also Unstrung's take on CES, from a Wireless perspective... And, these Wii commercials... Posted on January 09, 2008 at 05:00 AM | Comments (0) What's Next? ..." City to provide FREE 8-Track Players?"When asked, one official explained that they got the players for "a very low price," adding that 8-tracks for the free players were readily available at garage sales locally. "We all need to listen to music, and there's some good classic rock on 8-track ...you know, not everyone can afford one of those Sony Walkmans," said the anonymous city leader, who declined to give his name. In related news, Westland: City to provide free dial-up Internet service. I'm glad I don't live in Michigan... ...Meanwhile, over in Belgium, they're moving in the other direction .... Belgacom shuts down dial-up service. Such is the smell of decline. Posted on January 07, 2008 at 10:40 PM | Comments (0) I would have voted for Wide StanceRan across this one while blogging this afternoon, watching the Longhorns play St. Mary's - sadly basketball, learning to let football go... Check it out - American Dialectic Society's Word of the Year is (drum roll please .. dududududdududududu...."subprime.") The number after each nomination is the number of votes it received. Numbers separated by slash marks indicate a run-off. Voting totals are for each category might not be identical because the number of voters might have changed for each category. WORD OF THE YEAR WINNER: "subprime," an adjective used to describe a risky or less than ideal loan, mortgage, or investment. 79 There are many more good words in other categories, such as "bacn," "global weirding," and "earmarxist" ... never heard of any of 'em .... worth a look.... Posted on January 05, 2008 at 05:50 PM | Comments (0) Top 10 Wireless PredictionsGovernment Technology on-line magazine has a good article - very appropriate for this time of year - Top 10 Wireless Predictions for 2008. I'd direct your attention especially to Prediction # 2, 3, 6, and 8. While this particular wireless analysis focuses on the 3G/4G cellular wireless world, there are overlap and implications for the metropolitan broadband wireless world that is the focus in this space. MNIQ and analysis and comments follow this summary below. inCode, a VeriSign Company, has again issued its Top 10 predictions for the game-changing events that will shape the wireless industry in 2008. The predictions cover major trends ranging from who will win the communication standard wars, what role Google will play in the wireless world after January's spectrum auction and whether or not consumers will finally open up to digital content and mobile advertising. The predictions, first created in 2003 by inCode, a global business and technology consultancy acquired by VeriSign in November 2006, are designed to help wireless industry players, partners and consumers better plan for the coming year. "The coming year is going to be incredibly important for the wireless industry as new business models begin to take shape," said Jorge Fuenzalida, vice president of communications consulting for inCode, a VeriSign company. "Beginning with the spectrum auction in January, to the continuing battle between fourth-generation (4G) technologies LTE and WiMAX, to what it's going to take to make converged wireless a reality, wireless will look significantly different in several critical ways one year from today." 2008 predictions highlights (complete predictions follow highlights): -- The WiMAX/LTE wars will end with a whimper. The long-awaited "take-off-the-gloves" battle between next-generation wireless technologies LTE, HSPA and WiMAX will not occur since they are in different stages of maturity, with HSPA already enjoying widespread adoption and a flourishing device market. -- A new wholesale carrier will emerge. The 700MHz spectrum auction presents a large opportunity for the emergence of a new wholesale carrier (i.e., no retail operations or direct customer) that focuses on being the most cost-effective player in the market and avoids the retail game. The wholesale carrier model will be driven by companies such as Google - but the question remains: How much control will Google be able to garner? -- Peer-to-peer (P2P) technology goes mainstream. Long used for pirating files, US distributors follow the UK's lead and begin to utilize next-generation, secure and DRM-protected P2P for mobile content distribution. -- For the eighth year in a row, mobile service quality will continue to deteriorate. The combination of new technology (3G), multi-band, multi-access technology, advanced and complex handsets, least-cost routing and under-investments in network coverage have made mobile services less reliable than they were before the introduction of 3G. 2008 Top 10 Predictions for the Global Wireless Market 1. RF Technology Convergence Will Finally Start to Materialize MetroNetIQ Comments after the jump. MNIQ:The opening of wholesale wireless markets will be supported by Wi Fi networks, where available... 2. A New Wholesale Carrier Will be Born MNIQ: Already, T-Mobile is advertising dual use cellular phones with Wi Fi capability. Look for more device and handset vendors to add Wi Fi as an amenity to differentiate their products. And where these devices can run on Wi Fi metropolitan networks, they will be able to carry more data-rich advertising. 3. Device Proliferation: Open Access as an Emerging Business Model MNIQ: Metropolitan broadband networks will also reflect this new media-driven trend, where P2P business models target specific audiences for custom content delivery. 6. P2P -- From Theft Model to Business Model MNIQ: In cities that have metropolitan networks, mobile carriers will become additional anchor tenants, using the citywide networks to augment their other backhaul options. Posted on January 03, 2008 at 01:10 PM | Comments (0) Top Ten Posts for 2007
So here I am, on the first day of the year, trying to watch football, cook steak, drink a 10-year old Merlot, and write this blog. Something tells me this blog post may go into tomorrow... Little did I think the Christmas letter I started a week ago would need to go out in 8 parts, but as I reviewed all the ground we covered in my business, and all the topics we posted on, there was no way to do the year justice without spending some time on review. It was an interesting ride to go through all the documents and business activity, and to go through all the blog posts for the year. I hope you readers found it so as well. Having processed all that material this far, it's just one more step to compile a Best of the Year series, so here are my favorite posts for the year, rolled into one post. I'll go ahead and try the Top Ten format, as that is so popular, and it has value because it makes me focus, something I struggle with... 1. Cities as Complex Ecosystems: Mother Nature Knows Best Frenay thinks so and makes a credible argument. I would urge anyone in the city management business to take a look at this perspective. If anything, I believe that cities are complex ecosystems and they're best managed holistically, by thinking with a nature paradigm about how all the parts work together in harmony. Change is more easily accomplished at the local level, which gives relevance to this train of thought. Thinking about the future of your city holistically, you are bound to consider a network project at some point, because any complex ecosystem needs a communication medium, and metropolitan broadband offers that medium. 2. What's Municipal Wireless Good For? The Whole Enchilada I think that telecom is an inherently complex operation, and that cities, especially smaller ones, benefit when they assume a partnership role with private players. Cities are best served leaving the risky and complex jobs to the private sector where possible, focusing on what they do well: providing for the general welfare of the citizenry, principally with better public safety, better infrastructure, better prospects for the future (eco dev), and increasingly, better protection of the natural environment. Not to say that cities can't and shouldn't still be great catalysts for change, and that is the essence of what Municipal Wireless is good for. It helps cities be better at what they are good for - taking care of their citizens. In summary, Muni Wireless provides 1. a stimulus for national debate on broadband... 3. What's in a Name? A Lot, if it Signifies an Attitude and an Approach So, imagine this paradigm shift driven by a simple name change. What if we look at a Metropolitan Broadband Network not as an IT Project led by the IT team, with backing from city government leaders, to accomplish the laudable city goals of more efficient city government? What if instead we start of thinking of the task as a Community and Economic Development Project, led by a cross-section of government, business, and community leaders, to provide not only efficient city government, but also widespread access to broadband for all citizens, as well as long-term, sustainable economic development? Now the perspective shifts, and the IT Director / CIO becomes a leader and technology adviser to a much broader project, and one member of a much larger team. MetroNetIQ is using just such a shift in focus to give a new perspective to metropolitan broadband projects. There are trade-offs that come with this shift, but they are worth it. The project will take longer and will have more up-front expenses. But it is likely to turn out better in the end and pay long-term dividends. 4. Small, Simple, Cheap, and Fast - OHMMMMMMMM That is what I believe is the bottom line on the need for different approaches to broadband provisioning: A divergence from the status quo is called for, and an opportunity presents itself to model the success of Open Source software development. This is what we will see more and more of in the coming year - more experimentation, more innovation, more change. As consumers, we should open ourselves up to new ways of doing things, exploring what we value and what we can do without. There are multiple lessons to be learned if we will set off on this path. 6. On the Cutting Edge - Citywide Broadband on Steroids FTTH can lead, if the community is ready to make the leap to a 21st Century Future-Proof Broadband Network, if community and economic development are front and center, and if more competitive broadband market rates are needed. Wireless Broadband will be important as well for mobility, and that can come initially with Hot Spots, Hot Zones, or more ubiquitous coverage. Wireless Broadband can lead, if it's mobility that's most crucial, but a fiber loop will be needed for back haul initially, and the network will need to grow into a full FTTH network over time to provide necessary capacity to meet future capacity requirements. 7. Phoenix MetroNets, Rising from the Ashes Municipal Wireless 2.0 - the Trial Stage. The bottom line from this industry stage is that these networks counted on a new private sector industry developing and taking on the risks of these projects. Big city leaders were willing to launch initiatives as long as they bore little of the risk. When that "scenario" finally began to unravel, with the withdrawal of free deals by MetroFi and EarthLink, and the sputtering of Kite, the air went out of the balloon that was Municipal Wireless, or so it seemed. The announcement of the Death of Municipal Wireless was premature, however. Municipal Wireless 3.0 - the Emergent Customization Stage. I think we're emerging into a new stage of this industry, where we'll see the adoption of a variety of new business models, call it "MuniWireless 3.0," which I've labeled the Emergent Customization Stage. Imagine a shotgun blast, where pellets emerge from the gun barrel and explode into a broader, widening pattern. That's where we are with business models - we've matured to the point that interested parties have a menu of options to consider, and they can browse (pardon the pun!) to get the right option for their particular needs - a Custom business model, if you will. As cities learn more, they are able to take a more autonomous role, and we will see several different paths emerge, because cities are widely divergent in their local situations and preferences. Long Live Freedom of Choice! 8. Tangled Webs, Wicked Ways "How shall we move our country onto a more sound footing when it comes to broadband infrastructure? For it will either be by working through these large companies, or by working around them." For better or worse, our very complex communication web in this country is based on a history of government outsourcing development risks to the private sector, in most cases, to a regulated monopoly (AT&T). From the start, it's been a complicated yet incredibly successful venture, one that has evolved into a myth, starting with Alexander Graham Bell's "Watson Come Here" line and moving forward to Bell Labs series of technical discoveries in the 20th century. The measures this administration and its supporters would take cannot make us any safer, but they do offer to make us feel safer, in exchange for long-lasting political changes that serve their agenda. In response, we should be demanding hard evidence, we should demand to know: "How do massive violations of our laws to survey all data communications make us any safer?" What's the track record to date? It's been six years, after all. We're fed the impression that we're being protected, but in fact, that's not possible by such means. In fact, our civil liberties are being traded away for a pittance in an historic power grab. We're buying a temporary feeling of security, in exchange for handing over our most precious asset: the system of laws, checks, and balances that are the very foundation of our government and our stable civil society. This issue is coming to a head in the Senate, and I'm concerned. In the Senate, two competing versions of the FISA Act have passed out of Senate committees. One, passed last month by the Intelligence Committee, saw Democratic Senators Schumer and Feinstein vote with the Republicans in favor of a version that contains immunity for telecom firms that cooperated with requests from the executive branch to break laws and provide surveillance of domestic data traffic without warrants. 10. Shamalama Ding Dong - Life is a Highway We believe that the somewhat-spontaneous experiments of the open world of the Alternate Broadband universe are pushing out the envelope as fast or faster than the planned experiments and careful steps of the closed Conventional Broadband world of cable and DSL. And we also believe that there is room for both. Those large companies need the Alternate Broadband world to go out and take the risks, to experiment and come up with new broadband models. The smart ones among the Conventional Broadband players will watch advances in the Alternate Broadband space and adapt, while the overconfident ones will deny the changes until it is too late. Change is happening fast, the world is not the same as it was four years ago when I started in this space. What will the railroad operators do when the tracks no longer go where people want to go? What will they do when alternatives, like roads and cars, come along to compete with their railroad monopolies? Some will adapt, but others will go away. It's been a fun year...next, a look forward at 2008. 2008 ... that's going to take some getting used to.... Posted on January 01, 2008 at 11:11 AM | Comments (0) Sharing the Christmas Spirit
In Spanish, "milagro" means "miracle" and this season seems to call for a miracle right about now. Call this "Tequila-Blogging".....Happy Holidays from MetroNetIQ! Not to be all gloom and doom, but sometimes I feel a little down. My favorite holiday season approaches, yet I continue to read political blogs that decry the direction we're heading. Last night at the Austin Wireless Association Holiday Party (why can't we just call it a Chistmas Party???), talk was about the municipal wireless world unraveling and (some) folks were wringing their hands. And then, today's NY Times details the results of the Mitchell Report on steroid use in baseball - see Say it Ain't So, Roger, and Barry, and ... - even you, Rocket??? Big sigh..... Time to step back and appreciate that this time of year, I get to see old friends at parties, I end up calling people I haven't spoken to that much all year, others come into town to visit relatives and call me, I sneak off to play golf, and generally, start to kick back and unwind, as the year we call "2007" does the same. So take a hint from me and try something different this year. When you head over to your friend's house, you'll be that much more welcome if you bring along a Bottle of Margaritas, already mixed. Picture that blue bottle above, the tequila inside transformed into a Margarita, with a red ribbon around its neck. A nice change of pace from a bottle of wine, showing up on the doorstep with this libation will make you stand out and your friends will appreciate your brilliance all the more. So, I thought I'd share one of the things I'm thankful for - as a bartender in my youth, I made millions of margaritas by hand, before the machines were all the rage. I'd free pour into the blender and let 'er rip. All I have to do is smell that stale behind the bar smell and all those memories come flooding back... As an amateur bartender these past 25 years (I long since gave up making money at that - that was part of my mispent youth), I've had the occasion to experiment, and this is the best recipe I'll wager you will find for making a margarita, and it's true to the original recipe too! Just remember "3-2-2" and "fresh" and keep chanting those two terms, as you read on. Making the "322" Margarita, to go Ingredients 1. Tequila: Start with Milagro brand 100% pure agave silver tequila. Buy three bottles and start to experiment at home, which will give you some empty bottles (you'll need these later). This tequila has my vote for the best value tequila on the market - you can get a fifth for about $25 in most liquor stores - if you take your tequila in the form of that delectable concoction known as the "Margarita," that is. No doubt you can drop a pretty penny for a finer sipping tequila, but mixing an expensive tequila with Triple Sec and lime just isn't a good use of your money. The bottle is pretty, and it is sealed with a cork, not a screw top - a touch of class. 2. Triple Sec: Others like to use Cointreau or Grand Marnier, but again, I think this is a waste of good money, as the stronger orange flavor actually thows out the balance of the finished product. It's a matter of taste, and I've done some tasting. As far as I'm concerned, simple cheap Triple Sec does fine for this cocktail. 3. Lime Juice: Here's where a simple change of pace can make a big difference. Don't settle for premade juices, or juices mixed with sugar. Take your time and squeeze your own. The freshness matters. Get a hand squeezer at Williams Sonoma, or better yet, one of those models that sits on the counter, to make the task easier. And we've found that key limes, those little tiny limes, are the best value and actually provide more juice, and the juice is a little bit sweeter. Making the Drink 1. Start with the lime juice, because this is the most variable. If you buy plenty of limes, you'll have some flexibility in the recipe. So we usually get 40-80 key limes. Squeeze away, and measure out the juice in 8 oz containers. We often have a juicing party with the kids, they get fresh lime ade afterwards, and we freeze 2-3 containers pre-measured to 8 oz. 2. Pour the 8 oz of fresh squeezed lime juice into an empty Milagro bottle. 3. Measure out 8 oz. of Triple Sec and add to the Milagro bottle. 4. Measure out 12 oz. of Milagro Tequila and add to the Milagro bottle. 5. Pop in the cork top and shake it around. 6. Pour over plenty of ice and drink it slowly, savoring the different tastes. Any odd amounts of lime juice can always be matched with Triple Sec and Tequila using the 3-2-2 ratio - you don't have to follow the 12/8/8 ratio above, that just works for us to make a bottle and keep it in the refrigerator or take it to a friend's house. This drink actually comes across much stronger than the Margaritas you're used to, so treat it like a Martini, sipping in moderation. But once you get used to this smooth drink, you'll have a hard time going back to the sweet frozen varieties at the Mexican food restaurants that are more typical. In the past, we've added this recipe onto a blank business card decorated with Christmas symbols and tied it to a full bottle of margaritas with a red ribbon for a unique gift. Share the spirit, and have a great Christmas Holiday and a Wonderful New Year! Finally, I heard this song on the radio the other day ... helps me keep things in perspective to laugh a little at all the folly of the holly, this time of year. Posted on December 14, 2007 at 08:11 AM | Comments (0) From Analog to Digital - A Long, Strange TripI enjoyed writing this post this morning (see Digital Adolescents Stuck in Digital Puberty). It began a discussion on what I think is a seismic shift in our society, one that gets scant coverage considering the enormity of its implications. Technology acts on society: it wins over some converts, but others fight the change and seek to preserve the status quo. Technology drags us all into the 21st century, changing society along the way, but its pull has greater impact on "early adopters" than on "laggards." There are those who resist, but also those who are left out because of economics or education. When those who wish to participate are left out, we call it a Digital Divide. A staggered rate of technology adoption leads to a society out of balance. And the less attention is paid to the Digital Divide, the wider the gap gets. In the US, Europe and elsewhere around the globe, efforts to address such inequalities get labeled as Digital Inclusion or e-Inclusion, or eclusion, take your pick. Why does it matter? Digital Inclusion and Technology Adoption deserve your attention for two reasons. First, a healthy society requires that its members all have access to the tools necessary for success, whether its health care, education, jobs, or broadband and digital technology - if there are differences, they should be minimal. Different segments of society should at least be on the same planet when it comes to technology - even better if they are on the same page. The pace of change is such that those who get left behind technologically these days, out of choice or lack of access, are really, really left behind. Second, telecommunication networks increase in value the more nodes (phones, computers, etc.) are connected (aka Metcalfe's Law). It's corollary, Reed's Law, states that the value of social networks increases exponentially the more members are in the network, because of the value of sub-networks. In any society, people naturally organize themselves in networks. Just look at MySpace and FaceBook to better understand the value that society imputes to social networks. The Bottom Line: Networks organize and drive today's economy and society. If you're not on the network, increasingly, that means that you're irrelevant. Our leadership underestimates the impacts that digital networks have and resists changes to our society, often to our collective detriment. Our political leaders today grew up in a different world. The average age of members in the US Senate is 62, and with leadership based on seniority, many committee chairmen are over 70. A person who is 70 years old this year would have graduated high school in 1955, which was a big year in the history of computers: 1955 Steve Jobs is born February 24, 1955 The old men of computing, inventors of the Apple Macintosh, Microsoft Office, and the World Wide Web, were all born in 1955, when our political leadership was graduating from high school, slide rules in hand. When they graduated: * Computers ran mostly on vacuum tubes - very expensive large mainframes that required highly skilled operators - there was no such thing as a PC or Mac, much less a laptop or a tablet PC This list could go on and on - the point is that life was simpler then, in many ways ... the world has changed immeasurably in the past 50 years, and in big chunks, decade by decade. The really big digital impacts didn't even begin until 25 years ago, when our leaders were well into their 40s. Many of those who resist change and deny its significance either don't understand it fully, underestimate its impacts, or simply resent the pace of change. We won't go back to the way things used to be, there is no putting the toothpaste back in the tube. The world of the last century is gone forever, but many who vote continue to elect leadership that looks backward instead of to the future. Only when young people begin to outvote the old, when the voices of Progress outvote the voices of Conservatism, when those who value technology stand up in the political process to demand technological sophistication from their leaders - only then will we see informed lawmaking in Washington, DC. Until then, we'll have to look to local government, where younger people have a louder voice, for political leadership. Be sure to see TechPresident to track the twin issues of technology and the presidential race, if this posting hits home. Posted on December 10, 2007 at 10:32 PM | Comments (0) Digital Adolescents Stuck in Digital PubertyIt occurred to me that our current situation, culturally speaking, is not unlike that of an adolescent, whose body is beset by hormonal invasion that turns quotidian events into internal tempests that rock their worlds from hour to hour. With an 11-year old and a 13-year old living under my roof with my wife and me, I'm slowly coming to grips with the fact that we have a new house guest, not altogether welcome - Puberty. Too bad there's no Hormonal Channel, like the Weather Channel, to warn me of the next hurricane approaching. I'm constantly hit with these unexpected blasts of anger and anxiety, left wondering how long our new guest will be staying. No doubt longer than we'd like. So, if this is the situation I'm in, I better learn how to live in it, hadn't I? As a society, I'm convinced we're in a similar position, faced with a similar dilemma. We need to learn to live in a new mode, but for now, we're stuck in Digital Adolescence, between the analog childhood that we had grown so accustomed to - predictable, relatively slow, high touch - and the digital adulthood that is now a fact of life and that we know deep down is our destiny - forever changing, fast-paced, hard technology-based. When did this happen to us? It's hard to pin down, but I'd argue that we had a long, slow run up with the Rise of Computers from the 1960s through the 1980s, then we crossed the Rubicon sometime around 1995. (Some argue that we're still in this Information Age, but I think the Internet marked a significant disruptive transition from the Information Age to the Network Age, meaning that being connected is distinctly different than being dependent on information, but that's a topic for another post - still, do take time to read that link on the Information Age, which is loaded with good information and insights). Since the Rise of the Internet a little over 10 years ago, we've been alternating through many different attitudes, but mostly we've been collectively in denial as the Internet matures and grinds away at our institutions. For many, if not most in society, these changes lie under the surface, unrecognized, subliminal. But they affect us all, nevertheless, and we see more and more evidence of change, and the need to adjust, if we just open our eyes. Once you've had this realization, it's hard not to notice the evidence all around. In fact, getting us all to recognize the significant changes associated with transitioning from Analog to Digital, from stand-alone to connected, from fixed to mobile, is the principal goal of this website. Adjusting to change has to be one of the hardest things to do in life, yet we all have to do it as we age, so it's one of the most universal of themes. As societies go, healthy societies adjust well to change, less healthy ones don't. The least healthy societies get stuck and close themselves off from any outside influence in order to stay the same: just think of Cuba and North Korea. Recognizing this state of Digital Puberty that we've entered is not unlike going through the five stages of grief in the Kubler-Ross model , because such significant change involves a death and a rebirth. In the end, allowing yourself to be reborn, to reemerge from the process of change, involves accepting the death of the previous state. Until then, you're stuck. The stages are: 1. Denial: The initial stage: "It can't be happening." Kubler-Ross originally applied these stages to any form of catastrophic personal loss (job, income, freedom). This also includes the death of a loved one and divorce. Kubler-Ross also claimed these steps do not necessarily come in order, nor are they all experienced by all patients, though she stated a person will always experience at least two. Others have noticed that any significant personal change can elicit these stages. For example, experienced criminal defense attorneys are aware that defendants who are facing stiff sentences, yet have no defenses or mitigating factors to lessen their sentences, often experience the stages. Accordingly, they must get to the acceptance stage before they are prepared to plead guilty. Additionally, the change in circumstances does not always have to be a negative one, just significant enough to cause a grief response to the loss (Scire, 2007). Accepting a new work position, for example, causes one to lose their routine, workplace friendships, familiar drive to work, even customary lunch sources. At first, we deny that the change is all that significant, many even don't know what you're talking about. But then years pass, companies rise and fall, and society changes. Who can argue that we are not significantly different than we were 10 years ago, a blink of an eye when it comes to history? A mere decade ago, who had even heard of broadband, of Google, Yahoo, Amazon, eBay, etc., etc., etc.? Recognizing these changes and doing something about them is not easy. We have all kinds of terms for those who fail to grow up, from the Peter Pan Syndrome to the recent Failure to Launch. My personal favorite in this genre is the 1986 Rob Reiner film classic, Stand by Me, which chronicles that awkward point in our lives when some of our gang have moved on to be interested in more mature matters, while others lag behind. And for comedic effect, Arrested Development is hard to beat at capturing the inanity of growing up, or failing to do so. Part of the challenge comes from the lack of leadership. When we have leaders who look back instead of looking forward, as a society we're hamstrung. We're stuck in distracting and unproductive debates that stall our progress, diverting our energies from adjusting to change to preserving the status quo. As I write this post, I'm streaming audio from NPR, which just reported on Al Gore's acceptance of the Nobel Prize for his work in getting the world to accept the very real and significant fact that the world is heating up, which may very well threaten life on the planet. Now there's a hard reality to accept, especially since dealing with it involves dealing with the death of our very modern, relatively carefree lifestyles of consumerism and blissful ignorance of its consequences. I'd argue that we persist in acting like rebellious teenagers, holding on to our childish ways in the face of change, denying the need to accept our progress into an adult world of hard decisions and consequences. Consider then this list of societal issues that have been neglected over the past decade, look at them through the lens of Functional/Dysfunctional Change discussed in this post, and consider to what degree the problems we face stem from our clinging to the status quo in denial of the need for change. And while you're at it, add Broadband Infrastructure to the list. Climate Change We need to get busy, because the longer we stay stuck in the Five Stages of Grief, the longer we fail to deal with these issues and the worse they become. Posted on December 10, 2007 at 08:05 AM | Comments (0) Can I See the Rest of the Mail Bag?What a great country where we actually have this kind of informed debate in a national newspaper! In response to a provocative NY Times OpEd piece a few days ago, Taking Science on Faith, readers shared their own opinions in these Letters to the Editor, Scientific Method: Evidence, Not Faith. I was left thinking what a fun job this must have been for the Letters Editor staff, to wade through what must have been hundreds of letters to pick the Lucky Seven that made it onto the page...what the Times hasn't yet realized is that they could have put ALL the letters they recieved up on their website. Limiting the responses to seven is a hold-over from the print days, when there was a real cost to publishing, and they had to winnow the list down to the most essential. I say, "Thanks for the summary, but I want more! Can I see the rest of the letters?" Check out the list if you want a little jolt to your brain...deep thoughts, but good ones. I'd echo their comments, because I lean on both traditions very heavily. There's a place for faith in my life, which feeds a hole in my soul, giving me hope and keeping me going. There's also a deep reliance on science, which methodically explains things. Having to choose between the two would be like having to choose between bread and water - I need both. This argument highlights the false choices we are presented with on a daily basis. To simplify arguments, the press often boil things down into two opposing arguments, but life is immeasurably more complicated than that. Such simplicity presents a false choice. We can use the dualistic approach - "This or That?" - to get the conversation started, but never to finish the argument, because more often than not, the answer lies in the middle - "A little bit of This, a little bit of That." The beginning of Wisdom is abandoning the choice between Black and White, and embracing the fact that the world is a Canvas of Graytones. Getting to the nub of complex issues, and they abound in today's society, takes patience, understanding, compassion, and no small dose of hard work. And, we could all use more training day in and day out in developing that side of our intellect and heart that lets us tolerate ambiguity. Many issues we deal with are quite simply insoluble and subjective. Sometimes, the best we can get from a good argument is to gain respect for the opposing viewpoint, expand our horizons, and better understand why we hold the beliefs that we do, yet still tolerate the views of other intelligent people, who see the world differently than we do. Posted on November 29, 2007 at 07:50 AM | Comments (0) I was hoping for at least Community College Reading Level
Posted on November 18, 2007 at 02:23 PM | Comments (0) The Eternal, Infernal Disharmony in Being Half-PregnantI've been thinking about the challenge the FCC commissioners face doing their jobs. Maintaining their current regulatory posture over telecom and broadband companies must be an effort. You can hear the frustration in the comments made by the commissioners in the minority Democratic party, Commissioners Copps and Adelstein. (see my previous blog with their comments, here). I don't envy those guys their jobs. If they approach their jobs with any honesty, they must realize that as a nation, we're not exactly kicking butt when it comes to creating a thriving broadband marketplace, much less fulfilling the public interest. After all, don't they read the same articles I do that show our nation slipping in the global rankings on broadband penetration? It's almost as bad as the UT Longhorns slide in the AP and USA Today polls. I know how that makes me feel. Yechhh. And nobody is pointing at the Federal Telecom Act of 1996 as a raging success in bringing competition to the telecom market, that is nobody except the last-standing RBOCs, all three of them. SBC even bought up its old parent and took their name back - the new AT&T. Take that, Judge Green! When the Congress stipulated a "move to a competitive market," I guess the RBOCs heard a "move to a deregulated market." If you haven't noticed, they're not the same thing. So when they're kicking back having a Scotch in the FCC VIP Lounge after a hard day's regulatin' (indulge my fantasy), don't you think they acknowledge to each other that what we have is not a really robust, completive market for either of these services? I can just hear them. "Man, this regulatin' sucks." "No shit, Copps." "Hi guys!" "Kevin, yo." "Ah, what a great day, time for a scotch....say, who do you like in the playoffs? How about that Tribe." The FCC doesn't regulate either the telecom or the broadband market enough to dictate market outcomes, but they also can't let go of either market completely - they're stuck in an eternally disharmonious state - half pregnant. They continue to give the private companies they oversee just about all that they ask for, more or less, wanting to believe them when they say that their market description is a precondition to get them to invest the billions in new infrastructure. Please, even I see through that one. They like using their existing copper. It's their desire to hold on to their markets that gets them to invest, just like any other business. Note to the FCC - "Dudes, they're bluffin'!" And when the FCC doesn't get the market results they'd expected, well, that's got to get old. Doooohhh! But the fact is, if anybody is in charge of this situation, the FCC commissioners are. They took the appointment, after all. And they've allowed a situation to endure where they're all half-pregnant. Neither fish nor fowl. When the only parties that benefit from this situation are those currently making lots of money in privileged market positions that don't ever change - the incumbents, that is - then any reasonable person has to at least wonder why the situation continues. Whatever their stated intentions, it's their policies that keep the barriers to entry high and allow providers to charge what they want for services, within reason. It's a sweet deal for the sellers, as long as they can ride it out. I can't help but make the comparison to the disaster that was the partially deregulated electricity market created by the California PUC and the California Legislature. I guess the FCC looks good by comparison to that fiasco. We all know how well that experiment went. Yikes! It blew up when Enron and other energy traders gamed the system and stole billions from California citizens and businesses. Because they could. That's what happens when government creates these situations. Maybe that's what inhibits the FCC? Nahhh. Having a market sit for any length of time right in between a clearly competitive market (lots of buyer choices, little power for sellers to gouge on prices, low barriers to entry for competitors) and a clearly regulated market (regulatory commission sets prices and monitors customer satisfaction) is quite simply, as far as I'm concerned, a recipe for long-term disharmony and dissatisfaction among the public. And if you're not careful, some serious price gouging, even criminal behavior by the sellers, may result. Because for sellers left in that state over time, the power goes to their heads and it gets to be irresistible to abuse their position. It leads to corruption over the long haul. It's just not a healthy way to regulate. Being Half-Pregnant is not where you would choose to be, if you were a regulator or policy maker and you had the choice and you took your job seriously. It makes for unhappy buyers, for obvious reasons, and for unhappy sellers, at least on the outside. Sellers will always complain that they're over-regulated, and they will always ask for more relief - what have you done for me lately? It's how lobbyists get a raise, seeing how far they can push the system. So what's an unhappy regulator in a Half-Pregnant market to do then? If they go back to the basics in search of answers, they'll consult their job description and see that they're charged with guarding the public airwaves, ensuring the public good / looking out for the public benefit. That would be the public - as in you and me, the buyers. So, I'd start with thinking about creating a situation that would provide long-term Buyer Happiness. For that to happen, there needs to be stability between buyers and sellers and a sustained fair market. I think the situation that provides the most benefit for the buyer over the long haul is sustained market harmony, not an attempt to tell us that what we currently have IS fair. When a regulator takes on the job of managing a market, even overseeing a market to ensure fair competition, they have to give some thought to what constitutes a Win for a buyer. They need to have some empathy with the buyers. What makes for happiness? Is it when they get a good deal? What makes a good deal then? When the seller is very considerate? When the buyer was really looking forward to what they were buying? As we look at broadband as a market, an assumption we tend to make is that unless there's substantial choice, the buyers are not doing as well as they could. Sometimes we accept lack of choice as just something we have to learn to live with. Other times it leads to customer dissatisfaction. Every day we buy things and often we don't give a lot of thought to this equation, but I think it is central to the broadband economy and worth exploring a little further. I just finished a real estate refinancing last week, and I had a very unsatisfactory experience working with the mortgage broker and the title company. It was pretty miserable, and I got to pay thousands of dollars in "service" fees for the pleasure. I think one thing that bothered me was the tremendous lack of concern about customer satisfaction, sloppy process, missed deadlines, missed documents, etc - a factor that I would say is directly correlated with the nature of that market, since this is an infrequent transaction where I have low familiarity with the purchase and little recourse if things go wrong. But I'm assured all those fees are there "because of the Legislature." So, I think that having a good buying experience is about a lot more than getting a good price. It's about a sense of fair play as well. From the seller's perspective, I assume a sale with substantial margin is a Win. That could mean getting a high market price, or selling a product that has a low cost, which contributes to a high price. It could also mean lining up an account that will produce a long-term revenue stream. Or, landing a customer that will become a good strategic reference to lead to further business development. I think one has a functioning market in place when there is some balance between buyers and sellers. When you think about it, isn't a successful market transaction the very definition of a Win/Win? A happy buyer and a happy seller should be the goal of every market transaction. And thinking about the longer term, I think that the overall goal should be not just market harmony, but sustainable market harmony, which implies a complex system in balance. So backing up, going up to 50,000 feet, a long-term sustainable market can be had with competition or with no competition (but regulation), but rarely if ever with very little competition. Market Harmony in a Market with Competition When competition is present, competing firms work a number of angles in order to win business. They can compete on price, which is the natural way to compete if their product or service is widely available, making it hard to differentiate, even making it a commodity. They can compete on value or service, seeking a higher margin, if they have a product that is different or unique in some way. The best case for a seller is to have a product or service that has few or no substitutes, or that is difficult to switch from, so that the seller can charge a price with some flexibility, either seeking higher margins (premium pricing) or seeking larger market share (competitive pricing). So back to what makes a happy buyer in a competitive market - that is, one with healthy competition? I'd call that a market where a substitute is readily available and where the cost to switch providers is not altogether onerous. I'd focus on two things: value and customer service experience. a) Value. A happy buyer is one who receives fair value - that's a subjective assessment, because value has to do not only with the buyer's perception of price, but also with their perception of product or service quality. And satisfaction presumes that the purchase comes with a modicum of shopping, so that the buyer is aware of market conditions. The buyer needs to determine that they received a price that is about the same or lower than they could have received had they bought elsewhere. If the search cost is too high, often a buyer will be more satisfied even with a fairly wide margin in pricing - it just wasn't worth it to hunt for a bargain, so they opted to buy without much or any comparison shopping. In contrast, an unhappy buyer is one who finds out after the sale that they made a bad deal, either by paying too much or by getting less than what they had expected for their money. Fear of this outcome can paralyze a buyer, or put them in the unhappy role of perpetual shopper, always looking for a better deal. b) Customer Service Experience. A happy buyer is treated as if they were special - as if the seller really cares about their experience and wants them to return as a customer. A happy buyer should want to brag about their purchase and their seller. Conversely, an unhappy buyer gets treated like shit. They know it when the seller doesn't care about them, and they don't like it. Market Harmony in a Market with No Competition As long as it's managed and regulated well, a non-competitive market can still result in customer satisfaction despite the lack of choice, especially if other factors are present. A good example of such long-term stability and sustained market harmony is found with a public utility. In the absence of competition, a regulator serves to ensure that each side, both buyer and seller, receives a fair price and fair value. So, the price should be high enough so that the seller recovers its costs and makes a rate of return sufficient to be able to raise capital to finance its operations and long-term capital expenses. And the price should be low enough so that any buyer that wishes to buy can. That is the description of the regulatory compact that electric utilities entered under in order to be granted monopoly status. And it's the system in place that enabled most of the nation's electric grid to be built. (I still don't know why that can't be a model to build a broadband infrastructure, but when I suggested it recently, I was assured that "times have changed.") What makes a happy buyer in a regulated, non-competitive market? In a word, good, reliable service. Pleasant interaction with the seller. Personality makes a much bigger difference when the customer has no way to leave the seller, when the option is limited to either buy or not buy the product. That's why I was so dissatisfied in my real estate close. That's why I'm generally upset with my cellular carrier, because I'm locked into a two-year contract and they treat me poorly with some regularity. Market Harmony in a Market with Very Little Competition So, back to our Half-Pregnant scenario. I'd argue that it's difficult to achieve market harmony under circumstances of very little competition, because there's a lack of balance between the buy and sell side. The seller holds most of the cards in such a market and can charge a price set just high enough to keep the market sizable. In an untampered free market, such an inharmonious, out-of-balance market is generally a temporary situation, because the higher prices charged by sellers and the lack of harmony invites new market entrants to come in, so in the seller's view, the good times don't last too long. And while low customer satisfaction need not be inevitable in this market scenario, it's not uncommon for sellers that enjoy such a circumstance to lower product quality to increase margins - again, it's natural and can become almost irresistible. You can just hear the argument in the board room - "why are we still spending so much on product quality when we don't even have any real competition?" - "we could be making even more margin in this market, are we nuts?!!?" "We owe it to our share holders (us) to trim costs and increase margins." And they can be less attentive to customer service as well, if they believe the customers are stuck with them. What's worse, cost cutting in that area will hurt service when reps become over stressed. Of course, this market condition describes any number of broadband markets in the United States, and it's arguable that it also describes many telecom, cable, and cellular markets, especially in rural areas. Even in local markets where there are as many as three providers, which the FCC would deem "competitive," all have a strong incentive to keep their prices at about the same level and to avoid a price war. So, the prices stay high, the choices stay low, and that condition can persist over a long period of time. Customers feel disempowered under these conditions and rightly so - they have little control over what they buy - for instance, I'm on my third cellular company in about five years, and I think they all provide pretty poor, pretty expensive service. Problem is, they are all about the same, I've come to realize. I try not to think about it. I find a coping strategy, and go to my happy place. But there will come a time when there's real competition, and I will drop them like a rock. Executive management at incumbent firms in Half Pregnant markets know that customers like me feel this way, and that there are lots more like me on their roles. In their quiet moments, some of them toast each other and enjoy the good times while they last. But the smart ones are worried about their futures, because they know that however well they have things now, this condition is not sustainable over the very long term. And yet, another year goes by, and the profits roll in, and the markets consolidate further.... Posted on October 08, 2007 at 10:46 PM | Comments (0) "SkypeFone" Decision? More Accessible Bandwidth? Pigs Flying?Oh, what a time to be hanging around the FCC. Will they grasp the opportunity to embrace the future and unbottle the Genie that technologies embody? There is talk in the air, certainly. In the spotlight: Skype's Libertelli describes an opportunity to mimic the historic Carterphone decision by the FCC that led to the opening up of "ATT's" telecom network in 1968 by permitting 3rd party devices to attach to the network as long as they caused no harm. "What would happen to the wireless cellular world if that were the case?" asks an executive at Skype, a company that knows a thing or two about challenging the status quo in telephony. For those of you not up on Skype, I urge you to check out this Wikipedia link, download the software on your laptop, buy a headset, and try it out yourself. It may well start a change in your own paradigm about telecommunications and new possibilities. Democratic presidential contender John Edwards has apparently drunk the KoolAid when it comes to alternative uses for the 700 MHz spectrum that will come available when digital TV transitional deadlines come up. John Edwards' letter to the FCC, is highlighted in news articles here, here, and here. Before diving in, though, I recommend the novice check out this primer, 700 MHz Explained in 10 Steps on GigaOm, from 10 weeks ago. Here's the letter, below. Dear Chairman Martin: The upcoming 700 megahertz spectrum auction presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to shape the next generation of American technology. In recent years, the Internet has grown to touch everything and transform much of what it touches. It's not the answer to everything, but it can powerfully accelerate the best of America. It improves our democracy by making quiet voices loud, improves our economy by making small markets big, and improves opportunity by making unlikely dreams possible. As you know, the Federal Communications Commission is now preparing to auction the 700 megahertz slice of the spectrum. This "beachfront" band is particularly well suited to wireless broadband because it has wide coverage and can easily pass through walls. By setting bid and service rules that unleash the potential of smaller new entrants, you can transform information opportunity for people across America -- rural and urban, wealthy and not. As much as half of the spectrum should be set aside for wholesalers who can lease access to smaller start-ups, which has the potential to improve service to rural and underserved areas. Additionally, anyone winning rights to this valuable public resource should be required not to discriminate among data and services and to allow any device to be attached to their service. Finally, bidding should be anonymous to avoid collusion and retaliatory bids. I urge you to seize this chance to transform the Internet and the future. Sincerely, John Edwards It's a heady combination of events that promises potential for change and dialogue (dare we hope?). Asked about the potential for change just one year ago, I would have said "Pigs will fly before the FCC will lead us to innovation." I'm still skeptical that the FCC will show real leadership in this area. But look what we have driving the debate: a) upcoming public comment period on a pending spectrum auction of 700 MHz "TV broadcast bands", which many feel may be the last significant chance for a while at putting more spectrum in the hands of more companies; b) an historic presidential election that will foster public debate, hopefully more on the topic of the Internet and the changing paradigms; and c) political turmoil and the chance for a sea change in political leadership, away from a conservative, pro-corporate mindset that has cast a long shadow over administration policy for years. Here's the Battle of the Titans lining up: against a powerful corporate lobby that argues for a continuance of the status quo we have the seemingly inevitable march of technological change, which every month brings new possibilities to the table. I agree that current fixed and mobile telecommunications companies are very powerful, and I'm not betting against them. But I also acknowledge that technology changes are like the waves of the ocean, battering a sea wall. It takes a very strong dike to hold back those waves, and at some point, you just have a feeling the ocean will prevail. Want to chime in with your own opniions? Now is the time to be heard. I recommend this website, Tom Evslin's Fractals of Change, for some good ideas on the issues and key information on how to comment. Posted on June 03, 2007 at 09:03 AM | Comments (0) Finding a Clear Vision of a "Cloudy" FutureIn a blog last week, I highlighted the challenge we all face when we try to imagine a future that is not just an evolution of what we currently have. Without some background in a variety of current technologies and trends, I would ask how one can imagine what one would do were there massive amounts of broadband widely available, not just at one's desktop or on one's laptop, but swimming out in the air, everywhere, like AM or FM radio, able to be accessed from a variety of devices? I think of such change after reading Om Malik's recent blog at the GigaOm website. One thing is the lack of assurance in these markets - will they really develop? Another thing is the pull of the status quo ... those who would provide this very bandwidth are not altogether sure that it's in their best interest to do so, yet. They have a vested interest in continuing to make money off their current business (see also Mobile VoIP: Killer App in More Ways than One on the same website, which describes the challenges facing the mobile voice industry and details reasons why the major cellular carriers are disinclined to embrace VOIP, or for that matter, broadband data access - it's complicated). So, if you can get over the hurdles and begin to imagine the possibilities of everywhere cheap broadband, a follow-on question is likely "What will these new markets look like?" I found this short white paper on this subject to be helpful: The Challenges of Measuring Non-Existent Markets. (You'll need to register to access this one - just click the link and it will take you to the Registration page). The white paper lists a variety of steps a company can take to move forward amid such market uncertainty. The bottom line is like a variation on the shampoo bottle - Lather, Rinse, Repeat: Take baby steps. Experiment. Watch what happens. Adjust and retool. Repeat. In other words, look for favorable markets and embrace an iterative strategy with feedback loops. Back to the subject of AM & FM radio and cultural change, though, not only because I can remember and reminisce about Rock and Roll and how huge the Beatles were, but also because I was taken by how well these issues of cultural change came to light in a segment on NPR's All Things Considered news show yesterday afternoon. The segment was about the 40th Anniversary of the release of the Beatles LP Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Heart's Club Band on June 1 in England and June 2 in the US, where they mentioned the connection between the release of this album and its impact on FM radio and popular music culture. This radio segment made me think of how clear our vision is in hindsight and the impact of creative artists to stimulate change in our collective concepts of our culture, as well as on technology adoption. As the saying goes, "Hindsight is 20/20," and we're not always clear about what the future holds until some inspired creative types show us. By then the world has changed, as the masses start to "get" a new way of looking at things and they get swept up into the mainstream. The NPR news article talked about the impact the groundbreaking album, voted #1 All-Time in Rollingstone's 500 Greatest Albums of All Time, had on the music industry and popular culture. It described the popularity of AM radio, but also how its limitations became evident with this pop event. The stock in trade of the AM radio format was playing singles, for instance - that's what pop radio did - it made hits out of singles, which one could then go buy at a record store as 45 RPM records, with an A side and a B side. Popularity of songs was tracked on Billboard magazine's Hot 100 and later, Casey Kasem's American Top 40, which captured the Top 40 on the Top 100 and showcased them. I used to listen to that show in the early 1970s on Saturday mornings. Ah, good times ... sigh .... The release of this Beatle's album had been eagerly awaited, but when it came out, it created a shock to the popular culture, because there were no singles released. That's what the Beatles did as confident pop stars and creative artists. Their music took on a new format as an art form - it was part of a comprehensive work meant to be listened to as one piece, and it was much more complicated and layered, because the Beatles had decided to stop touring and spend more time in the studio making more complex music. Playing such longer-themed music became the job of FM radio, then an obscure "new" media seeking to get established. There was also the fear among radio stations of being censored by the FCC for some of the drug references in the songs on the album, which were only much later revealed to be mostly in the imagination of listeners. The music recording industry, in their infinite wisdom, phased out the single format in the late 1980s, for fear that it prevented the sale of albums. For a while, the novelty and improved quality of digital CDs kept the industry going, but they got greedy and lost touch with what consumers wanted (surprise - they DIDN'T want to pay $16.95 for a CD that only had one "hit" song on it). At least that's how I see it. So we see the market working when the music single returned with the help of Apple's iPod and its accompanying website, iTunes. Steve Job in his wisdom has been able to consistently innovate and leverage digital technology, this time with the ubiquity of the PC (or the Mac), making the Internet a new and popular distribution medium for music. So what comes next with more and more broadband out there? Hard to say, but we can imagine significant changes in our popular culture, and a continuation of this process. Cultural leaders and creative artists push out the boundaries of established "rules of the road," and challenge the status quo. They capture the imagination of the public and create new business models that take advantage of new technologies. And it will be the same with massive availability of broadband - the content will morph to accommodate and take advantage of new capacity. Just watch and have faith that the bandwidth will not go to waste. Posted on June 02, 2007 at 03:30 PM | Comments (0) excelsio communications, MetroNetIQ Solution Partner, Makes 2007 ResolutionsCan it possibly be that 2007 is already upon us?? Are those the footsteps of the New Year, sneaking up on us out in the hallway?? I was surprised when Karl Edwards, principal and co-founder of excelsio communications, called me today to tell me he had written down his 2007 New Year's Resolutions and suggested I post them. Wait a minute - 2007?? Let's see, by my count, there are 10 more days in November - check - and then 31 more in December - check - so that's only 41 days. Less than 6 weeks left - whoaa! I've been so busy, this whole holiday just snuck up on me. Man, can someone slow down that Father Time? I don't know about the rest of you, but my life is flying by waaaay too fast! Still, I was glad to hear from Karl and glad to see he's thinking along these lines. I just updated the opening Vision blog for this website a few days ago, and I guess now I'll have to do an end-of-year summary / New Year's "vision" post as well. The end of the year is always a good time for taking stock, in your business as well as your personal life. I believe in that. And 2006 has been a good year for this industry (and for MetroNetIQ!), but we do need to take stock and recalibrate for the New Year. Karl's essay is a good one and a good opportunity to get you all thinking in this direction. I put it in this downloadable PDF, find it by clicking here at excelsio communications 2007 Resolutions. You'll see that Karl's suggestions are in line with the sentiments expressed on this website. MetroNetIQ will be working with excelsio communications in the New Year, given our shared vision and shared strategy for this market. We both like to work with clients who 1) are small towns; 2) have a deliberate, rational approach to projects; 3) want to learn from the mistakes of others; 4) are creative and like to experiment with new business models; and 5) have unmet needs and a sense of urgency. If your city fits any one of those criteria and you're ready to get started, please drop me an email - today! More specifically, Karl urges the industry conversation in 2007 to feature more focus on: 1) the needs of the average community (where the action will be next year); 2) completed projects (opportunities for learning as finished projects come on line); 3) challenges of networking (pioneer networks will mess up - let's study the mistakes and draw out more lessons); 4) smaller markets (too much focus on big, unrealized projects in big cities); and 5) alternative business models (variety of business models should be explored in 2007). Karly also highlights the difference between a business plan (lays out details and required actions, expected outcomes, etc.) and a business model (who owns what, who does what). Finally, Karl recommends that cities spend more time on financial analysis and show how the networks will pay for themselves, which will be increasingly important to potential private partners in 2007. Karl and I have talked a lot about the market in the metropolitan broadband industry, and how we see things unfolding in the near term. Our consulting firms are very complementary and we're looking forward to working together. Our clients will benefit from our different perspectives and collective knowledge of the market and innovative solutions. 2007 is going to be a good year. Posted on November 20, 2006 at 07:28 PM | Comments (0) WiMax - Slow Train ComingIn the United States, Orr says the technology is likely to take off in newly built developments and areas in which installing cable and DSL has proven difficult. The most talked-about use for WiMax, however, is in municipal networks, providing coverage across a metropolitan area. The "most talked-about use for WiMax" is metropolitan broadband? Ah Ha, there you have it in print. Indeed, the efficiencies of WiMax technology for moving large amounts of data at high speeds will inevitably provide a kick in the pants for metropolitan broadband. I believe we will look back on these early years as the days of experimentation. We are still sorting through the business models and yet, there is a sense of inevitability that our cities will one day soon be covered in wireless clouds that will send data flying in every direction through the magic of radio. Soon, soon.
Posted on February 25, 2006 at 08:16 PM | Comments (0) Oodles of Web 2.0 LinksI'm doing my best to stay on topic on this web log -- all about MetroNets -- really I am, but I just couldn't resist sharing this info with you all. SciFi writer Bruce Sterling has a blog on Wired Magazine, Beyond the Beyond, and on Feb 17, he wrote this short article titled "Web 2.0: Does it Exist, and Why on Earth Should You Care." I owe these great links to Bruce. What cool pages - bookmark these, they are great resources! If you're not familiar with the term Web 2.0, don't worry - its still very new. This term is being used by those forward thinkers out there who are speculating on what the Web has become/will become. The idea is that websites are becoming more interactive and websites that include features like blogs, wikis and podcasts - tools for interactivity - are providing more utility than older websites, and those websites define what people mean when they use that term. The on-line world is changing. It is really exciting! Web 2.0 is really a term you should become familiar with. As the saying goes, sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words, so forget about Googling the term or looking on Wikipedia - well, here that is if you really want to read about it first. Or, you could read Best (Or Most Interesting) Web 2.0 Definitions and Explanations. Reminds me of how Microsoft tried to describe Dot Net a few years ago - I still don't get that. But if you want to skip reading about Web 2.0 and just go out and experience it, bookmark this page and check out the 162 links on it - what the site claims is the Complete List of Web 2.0 Products and Services. If that's not enough, check out also The Best Web 2.0 Software of 2005. After you've digested all this, please come back and tell me what you think Web 2.0 means to you - I already get this phenomenon better than I ever understood Dot Net. Let's just hope we don't live to see a Dot Net 2.0.... Posted on February 22, 2006 at 09:22 PM | Comments (0) Wireless DisruptionDisruptive technologies are generally dismissed by the incumbents, but they attract a following among consumers who find a solution that better meets their needs for the right price point. In time, the disruptive technology that is successful moves out of the starting gate and becomes truly disruptive as a sustainable innovation. The classic business bestseller The Innovator's Dilemma by Clayton Christensen makes a similar point. Something I read last night is a great topical reminder of this business phenomenon, applied to current telecom and metropolitan broadband issues. This concept reared its head last night, got me thinking and kept me awake, as I plowed through the compelling and well written whitepaper, The One Hundred Year Storm: Wireless Disruption in Telecommuncations, by global consulting firm Deloitte & Touche. I'm now getting the e-newsletter Digital Communities, which is also is a content-rich, professional website that should be bookmarked by those interested in metropolitan broadband. Produced by Government Technology and sponsored by Intel, this site has several useful links to good content, such as the Wireless Mesh link, where I found that whitepaper. The arguments put forth in the paper provide good theoretical backing for why we pay attention to metropolitan broadband - because it disrupts the traditional approach to telecommunciations. Posted on February 08, 2006 at 06:52 AM | Comments (0) Web 2.0 Principles and LessonsFrom Web 1.0 to Web 2.0 means ... In this other "must read" article on advances on the Web (see my previous post The Web is Evolving, and so is its Supporting Cast), Tim O'Reilly explains the origins of the term Web 2.0 and lays out the underlying principles that led he and his colleagues to come up with this terminology and the lessons learned from taking this Web 2.0 perspective. 1. The Web is a platform where the value of the software is proportional to the scale and dynamism of the data it helps to manage, i.e., build bridges to more data, not fences around your data (e.g., Google). Leverage customer-self service and algorithmic data management to reach out to the entire web, to the edges and not just the center, to the long tail and not just the head (e.g., Overture and AdSense). The service automatically gets better the more people use it (e.g., BitTorrent). 2. Embrace the power of the web to harness collective intelligence, so that network effects from user contributions are the key to market dominance (e.g., Wikpedia). Blogs are the best example of this principle. ... like Wikipedia, blogging harnesses collective intelligence as a kind of filter. What James Suriowecki calls "the wisdom of crowds" comes into play, and much as PageRank produces better results than analysis of any individual document, the collective attention of the blogosphere selects for value. 3. Data is the next Intel Inside, as data become the building blocks for Web 2.0 applications (e.g., GoogleMaps). O'Reilly envisions a coming battle over control as data owners line up against applications that seek to leverage that data. 4. End of the Software Release Cycle. When software is viewed as a service rather than a product, operations that ensure service quality become a core competency, users become co-developers, and development moves from an episodic activity characterized by releases, to a constant activity marked by fluid updates. 5. Lightweight programming models drive several shifts, lightweight programming models that allow for loosely coupled systems, a preference for syndication over coordination, and designs that anticipate being hacked and mixed on the back end (designers start the process and let the hordes of smart programers leverage their creativity to continue the process beyond the original vision, in new - and unpredictable - directions). 6. Software Above the Level of a Single Device is a paradigm shift required by web-based businesses, where the web and web services pull together resources to provide a service not possible without a network paradigm. iTunes and TiVo are examples of services that manage data as a service and leverage network dynamics. 7. Rich User Experiences. As new applications are written with the Web as a platform, the creators can leverage not only the new capabilities that network dynamics make available, but also the best of the old PC-based applications, which results in a delightful, new, rich user experience. This transistion provides new companies with a great opportunity, and incumbents with an ongoing challenge. I'll close this post by emphasizing the dynamic nature of the changes we are in the middle of, and the need for a robust broadband data infrastructure to complement such Web evolution. If you'd like to see my opinions in more detail, take a look at my whitepaper from this spring, UnwireMyCity On Structural Change. For his part, O'Neill concludes with this set of core competencies for any outfit that purports to be a "Web 2.0 Company." Let's close, therefore, by summarizing what we believe to be the core competencies of Web 2.0 companies: * Services, not packaged software, with cost-effective scalability The next time a company claims that it's "Web 2.0," test their features against the list above. The more points they score, the more they are worthy of the name. Remember, though, that excellence in one area may be more telling than some small steps in all seven. Posted on December 15, 2005 at 12:56 PM | Comments (0) The Web is Evolving, and so is its Supporting CastBy now we're all familiar with the connection between the software we use and the hardware we use to run it. I'm typing on a 3-year old Dell Inspiron (Hey, I'm not cheap, but I am value-conscious). But I learned today that I will have to upgrade the security software I put on this computer when I bought it - it has become outmoded. This process is dynamic, ever changing. And soon, I'll have to upgrade my hardware to keep up with the new requirements I'm facing re speed and memory. New upgrades and new software and new types of content (MP3 files, MPEG files) require more processing power and more storage capacity, so we go buy new hardware, at least that's how this virtuous circle works in my house. It's exhausting to always be playing catch up and spending more on technology, but we are all pulled along by "progress," and we get off the train at our own risk. In a similar way, the march of the Web in our lives is driving the need for improved infrastructure to give us better access to the Web. Cities can no more choose to avoid these changes than individuals can - we withdraw from this march at our own risk, making catching up that much harder when we finally are compelled to act. For instance, we increasingly need mobility options to keep up with the essential service the Web has become. Cell phones are making great strides with new features and functions, but as data devices, they still struggle with the limited bandwidth their infrastructure provides, and the large company focus on walled gardens and pay for content models is anathema to what we are used to on the Internet and the World Wide Web. On this site and others, we're busy looking at competing approaches to such limitations. While one camp would craft software and mobile content to match the constraints of low data bandwidth (cellular and 3G), another camp would work to put in place infrastructure that has fewer such limitations (Wi Fi mesh and WiMax). Ultimately, like the memory and processing speed constraints of the early PC era, we can expect these bandwidth constraints to fade into the woodwork at some point - much of the excitement around technologies like Wi Fi mesh and WiMax has to do with providing us all with ubiquitious high-speed connectivity ahead of schedule. This infrastructure is the key to realizing the full potential in the writing of Kevin Kelly, and for people like Tim O'Reilly who talk about Web 2.0. There's that term again. While I described those changes and the need to stay aware using the "boiling frog" analogy in a blog the other day, I think that this connection between the evolving web and the evolving infrastructure deserves more attention. What kind of infrstructure will we need to keep up with the what the Web is becoming for us? The scope of the Web today is hard to fathom. The total number of Web pages, including those that are dynamically created upon request and document files available through links, exceeds 600 billion. That's 100 pages per person alive. How could we create so much, so fast, so well? In fewer than 4,000 days, we have encoded half a trillion versions of our collective story and put them in front of 1 billion people, or one-sixth of the world's population. That remarkable achievement was not in anyone's 10-year plan. The accretion of tiny marvels can numb us to the arrival of the stupendous. Today, at any Net terminal, you can get: an amazing variety of music and video, an evolving encyclopedia, weather forecasts, help wanted ads, satellite images of anyplace on Earth, up-to-the-minute news from around the globe, tax forms, TV guides, road maps with driving directions, real-time stock quotes, telephone numbers, real estate listings with virtual walk-throughs, pictures of just about anything, sports scores, places to buy almost anything, records of political contributions, library catalogs, appliance manuals, live traffic reports, archives to major newspapers - all wrapped up in an interactive index that really works. Kevin Kelly in Wired 13.08: We Are the Web I just reread this article that Kevin Kelly wrote for Wired back in August of 2005. It's appropriate to take a look back as we approach the final days of 2005. This article goes one step further, looking back to the origins of the World Wide Web to show how much a part of our lives it has become, and how it will transform our future. Give yourselves an early Christmas present by pausing to read this article. Good job, Kevin. And pause for a moment with me to think about what these changes in how the web is used will impact business and economics. What do these changes mean for your organization and the way you accomplish your goals and objectives? Does it make sense in 2006 to do things much the same way you did them in 2005, for instance? Do you have someone looking at the potential for disruptive change and how that will affect your organization? We can go into the new year with some satisfaction that we are boldly entering a new era, but we should all keep in mind that infrastructure is foundational, and improvements in process and change are only as good as their underlying infrastructure. Progress begins here. That's why what's going on with the Web is relevant to what is going on with its supporting cast, that is, the wire line and wireless infrastructures that bring the Web to us. We must make sure that we have an infrastructure that will enable the Web to be all that it is bound to become. Posted on December 15, 2005 at 12:08 PM | Comments (0) Web 2.0, Cities, and Boiled FrogsI am told the above instructions work because frogs are cold-blooded. This means its body temperature is the same as the surroundings, unlike us human beings. We are warm-blooded, meaning our body temperature is kept more or less constant, and does not follow that of our surroundings. We shiver in cold weather to keep up our body temperature. We sweat in warm weather to cool ourselves down. The frog's body temperature follows its surroundings. If you put the frog directly in boiling water, it will sense the heat immediately and jump out. But when you heat the water slowly, the frog keeps adjusting to the rising temperature. When the heat is too much for the frog to take, it is too late. The frog collapses and dies. www.snopes.com Note to on-line journalists - check your literary and popular references first before publishing - I was about to use the frog in boiling water reference and thought I would Google it first. Unwittingly, I made my point the wrong way around. My angle was that we are now in a time in Internet and Web evolution that we have more changes around the corner (i.e., Web 2.0) that will have more impact on the way we do business than we can realize right now, and what we know is not necessarily the way things are. We are like the frog in water that slowly rises to a boil. By the time the frog realizes its in - pardon the pun - hot water, it's too late and he/she is boiled. This is a cautionary tale to be wary of evolutionary change and keep your sensors tuned to your environment. By the time we realize all the changes around us are really significant, my warning went, it will be too late to do anything about it. As It turns out, acc. to Snopes.com, this is yet another urban myth that is not true. But, its such a good story and it makes the point, so who cares if its entirely accurate. I'll roll with the punches and use Snopes.com instead of that old folk tale to make my point - just want to be on top of things with you all. As an aside - I'm sitting in a Hot Spot in Austin as I type this blog - its 72 degrees F and sunny - on Dec 12 - this is one of those days when I'm reminded why I live in Austin, I guess. It makes those 100+ degree days in August somewhat easier to swallow, and sitting in a cafe reminds me of how much I enjoy getting out of the office. Note to self - do more of this in 2006. Back to Snopes.com - The legend is entirely incorrect! The 'critical thermal maxima' of many species of frogs have been determined by several investigators. In this procedure, the water in which a frog is submerged is heated gradually at about 2 degrees Fahrenheit per minute. As the temperature of the water is gradually increased, the frog will eventually become more and more active in attempts to escape the heated water. If the container size and opening allow the frog to jump out, it will do so. Don't try this experiment at home. Yuchh. So, we get the point, but if it were true, it would be a great analogy, wouldn't it!?! Another entertaining read out there on the best seller list is Freakonomics by Stephen Dubner and Steven Levitt, a world class economist with an unconventional way of looking at things. This duo debunks a variety of common things we "know" through conventional wisdom, in a well-written and entertaining style that should leave the reader just a little less comfortable in their skin. It seems that even for those of us who count on being "in the know," what we "know" is no longer necessarily true. It's not enough that things are changing so fast we can't keep up, but also our new-found knowledge gets distorted even as it gets disseminated. So, back to Snopes.com - thank God for the Internet and the myriad tools that are popping up, so we can go right to the source with Google and find out for ourselves. Finally, to the point. Those who read my posts know that I have to warm up a little, like clearing my throat. So here it is. I'd been hearing more and more about Web 2.0 Have you heard this term? It's been around for about 18 months, but it only seemed to start showing up on my screen enough for me to look into it in the last couple of months. So I decided to do a little homework and report back on what I found. I've read things like "its a load of hype" to "its the second coming of the Web." What makes it so relevant to me is that the values we hope to derive from the new infrastructure that takes all of my focus - metropolitan Wi Fi mesh networks and WiMax - those values will come from the innovation we are seeing under the heading Web 2.0. But there is a common thread. Web 2.0 means using the web the way it's meant to be used. The "trends" we're seeing now are simply the inherent nature of the web emerging from under the broken models that got imposed on it during the Bubble. Paul Graham in his blog Graham highlights three points in his blog: First, he says to take a look at Ajax, which is a new way of desiging Web applications that are more intuititve and easier to use. Second, he says that Democracy matters, highlighting things like Wikipedia and blogs, where normal people have access through the Web to make a difference, to gain an audience, and to impact the business world without having to go through the establishment, VCs, or an editor. Finally, Graham says that the new mantra of " Don't Maltreat Users" is vital to Web 2.0. When you can reach millions through the Web, and interact with them at their pleasure, it pays to be as cheap as you can be, and as user-friendly as you can be, so that nobody can undercut you - if you aren't on your toes, your audience can leave you in a heartbeat (no matter if you're a really nice guy like me). I beilieve this is huge. In the Web 2.0 world, there are consequences for not putting your best foot forward with customers. That's good news for customers, and bad news for those slip shod outfits we all are tired of, and for those institutional incumbents who still believe that they own market share as some sort of Manifest_Destiny. Here's another look in an essay called- the web 2.0 experience continuum. There's much more to talk about with Web 2.0, but I'm running long here. What I'd like to leave those interested in wireless technologies and city government is this point. The days of being a late adopter, of playing it safe and getting by with minimal change are ending. City officials, just like private sector business people, need to adapt to the rules of Web 2.0 because their consituencies will increasingly have these tools at their disposal. The environment is changing more rapidly than we think, and the business and political structures and practices that we are used to will not be the same in 10 years, maybe even in 5 years. The extension of the Internet, helped along by technologies like Wi Fi mesh and WiMax will hasten this change, and we will have a completely new deck of cards to play with. There is no way around doing your exercises and sit ups if you want a buff body, and there is no way around keeping on top of things by using the latest tools, if you want to stay in the know and avoid nasty surprises down the road. You're on the right path by reading this blog (and I hope many others) and by staying tuned to www.metronetiq.com and www.wimax.com . Stay in touch, so you can jump when the water gets too hot. OK, scratch that, I'll have to find a more topical reference that is "Snopes.com-proof." Posted on December 12, 2005 at 01:41 PM | Comments (0) Ode to those Disrupted by Structural ChangeDo not go gentle into that good night, Though wise men at their end know dark is right, Good men, the last wave by, crying how bright Wild men who caught and sang the sun in flight, Grave men, near death, who see with blinding sight And you, my father, there on the sad height, -- Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night by Dylan Thomas (Anytime I get a chance to quote good poetry, I should take it, right?) This poem for me describes what must be the attitude of those business executives in the unenviable position of being in charge of those companies whose business models are being disrupted by the changes from the maturation of the Internet, and its extension to all corners of the globe with outdoor technologies like Wi Fi Mesh and WiMax. We truly should not expect those displaced by such historic disruption to go quietly. It would be against human nature. On a more pleasant note, looking at this Structural Change (see my whitepaper) from a different perspective, its actually Good News for the rest of us. That's where we are headed, to a system where Microsoft doesn't control access to media as much as content controls its own use, and only the content creators get paid. And when it all comes together a decade from now, we'll see that for the very reasons I just described it was inevitable. And that's good news. I, Cringely . August 8, 2002 - Good News! | PBS OK, so I had to go all the way back to August 2002 to find some good news for you guys. But hey, let's face it - we all need a little good news from time to time (especially when I quote depressing poems). That's why I'm going to plug Robert Cringley again - he writes a weekly column for PBS.org that is consistently one of the most upeat, prescient, insightful columns out there on the Web (and you know there's a lot of good stuff out there, so that's saying a whole lot). Check out Cringely's column, I, Cringely when you get a chance, and browse his archive of articles. You won't be disappointed. You'll also find Cringely listed in my list of Pundits and Blogs elsewhere on this site. So, in this article enttiled "Good News! Tired of Negativism, Bob Looks Into the Future and Sees Ubiquitous Computing That Not Even Microsoft Can Control" Cringely makes predictions and does a damn good job of it. Wi Fi will take over home networking. Check. Mesh networking will prove to be a dynamite application. Check. UWB will be built into all of our home entertainment devices by 2005. Check. No, wait, oh, OK, so he's not perfect, but he did a good job - I didn't have a clue of this stuff three years ago. And interestingly, WiMax wasn't even on his radar back in August 2002. I appreciate the insights that Cringely offers regarding content and mesh networking, near the end of this article. With a fully-realized mesh network, non-private data (this column, a Nat King Cole CD, or a copy of "Debbie Does Dallas") resides where it resides and the issue becomes less one of location than ownership. This is the Digital Rights Management endgame that all the current industry players are missing. In their determination to not only control all the money, but to also administer a centralized distribution system, they don't see the power of leaving data where it lies. With five or five thousand or five million copies of an audio file or a movie already on the network, why do I have to get my copy from Warner Brothers, rather than from my neighbor? The issue finally comes down to compensation, and turning Warner Brothers from a distribution empire with hundreds of employees to a royalty acceptance web site with no employees means that royalties could drop by an order of magnitude and profits could stay the same. See the reference to Schumpeter's Creative Destruction in my post from a few weeks back:. UnwireMyCity.com: Time for Municipal Broadband? Three years later and digital rights advocates are still fighting this fight, emboldened perhaps by court victories on DRM and their ability to push smaller companies around with their lawyers. But as compelling as their position is, and I believe in digital rights, by the way, I do not agree in maintaining the status quo for large distribution corporations at the expense of content creators. I hope that abusing the content creator is becoming an antiquated business practice. Somehow I draw some consolation that distribution executives just cannot be sleeping well these days. I think they're afraid of these changes, don't like them one bit. How could they? Tthe Internet is like the Blob meets the Energizer Bunny - it just keeps going and going, and eating everything up in its path, leaving death and destruction in its wake. That has to be depressing for an established honcho in the line of fire. Personally, I would start looking for a new job. Think of it this way. I just bought a "Lord of the Rings" DVD at Fry's Electronics for $16.95. That $16.95 has to support not only the movie production, but also an immense manufacturing, distribution, and marketing organization that at the end of the day probably yields two dollars or less in pure profit to the intellectual property owner. So why not cut out that manufacturing, distribution, and marketing operation - and its associated administrative overhead - and instead just hurl a copy of the movie onto the Net, let it propagate as demand dictates, with that same two dollars making its way back to the film makers from every subsequent owner? This is an example of the concept now referred to as The Long Tail, which is well described in this article by Chris Anderson of Wired magazine. Basically, The Long Tail concept says that a few buyers of multitudes of niche content may well prove to be a more attractive market in the future than trying to compete for a multitude of buyers of a few mass-market Hits. The costs to distribute the mass-market stuff eats up much of the profit. With the help of the Internet, niche buyers can now seek out their content and if it's priced right, it's a quick sale (think iTunes and iPod). Michael Dell figured out that a shorter supply chain is the more efficient way to go, and look where he is, living in a 38,000 sq foot mansion on a hill up the street here in Austin. But in my experience, well-heeled established executives like say, those in the recording industry, do not tend to fold up their tents and go quietly into the night, they rage (see above). So I think we are in for a long struggle, with ups and downs for both sides. So if we're in for more of our bumpy ride into the future, I recommend you hold on tight, keep your sense of humor, newcomers and displaced incumbents alike, and seek until you find what you want. Sellers, please try to align with new and changing market conditions, and don't try to stop the market from changing. Buyers, don't settle for mass-marketed goods that are too expensive, or of inferior quality and try new ways of doing things - hopefully that will keep up the pressure on the incumbents to innovate and adapt, or maybe they will fade away at some point. Either way, I agree with Cringely that this future he described three years ago has a sense of inevitability to it. So, connecting the dots from 2002 to 2005 and projecting forward, we can see that it really is a matter of When, not If, when it comes to digital content distribution. Posted on December 01, 2005 at 05:51 PM | Comments (0) Ali v. Frazier? Godzilla v. Mothra? Texas v. USC?When they're done spending their billions, the phone companies say, they will surpass their rivals. They promise a seemingly infinite number of channels, many in crisp high definition, and plenty of interactive tie-ins, like the ability to check e-mail messages or screen incoming telephone calls on the TV set. But as the Baby Bells know better than most, talk is cheap and the challenge is daunting. The capital expenditures are staggering. Holding little leverage with the content creators, they also end up paying more for programming than cable companies and satellite operators, who already hold the accounts of 92 million consumers and are rapidly making inroads into the telephone companies' own business of phone service. Calling Out the Cable Guy - New York Times It's almost as if we all have ringside seats to watch Ali and Frazier duke it out. Or if you prefer, Godzilla and Mothra. As this article's analysis shows, when Cable gets its bundle together, and ATT & Verizon have theirs together, then we will begin to see more clearly who will be victorious. For now, it's fun sport to speculate on which system will prove superior to delivering high speed broadband, VOIP AND video, fulfilling the promise of interactive video features and a truly digital bundle. My friends at the satellite companies think they will be in the mix at some point as well. Don't count them out with their millions of subscribers and billions of dollars. Were business like sports, we could better pick a clear winner. We would have a playoff like in college basketball, (and every other sport of note), or be stuck with computer and human polls, like with college football. Even though there are no polls, or bowls, for that matter, the speculation will continue in this new spectator sport. So pick your poison and see how you line up in this debate. Cable has its first mover advantage, while telecoms have their cash and political oomph. Cable has an easier job to provide VOIP than telecom has to provide video. Cable has deficient technology compared to fiber. DSL sucks. Muncipal broadband is coming on strong and will push down prices. WiMax will leave them all in the dirt (once it gets standardized). Me, I'll keep my ringside seat in this struggle, but I'm also going to keep an eye on football. I'm ready to watch my Texas Longhorns whip up on those big city USC Trojans in the Rose Bowl. Now that's what I call a spectator sport. Posted on December 01, 2005 at 03:48 PM | Comments (0) One Crystal Ball Has This Future in MindGoogle says it wants to use the city of Mountain View as a test ground to show that giving people wireless Internet connections on a large scale is a good idea socially and financially. ``We believe that free (or very cheap) Internet access is a key to bridging the digital divide,'' Google product manager Minnie Ingersoll wrote in a letter Thursday to Mountain View city leaders. ``In our self-interest, we believe that giving more people the ability to access the Internet will drive more traffic to Google and hence more revenue to Google.'' Ingersoll continued, ``We are committed to showing the world that this technology works and we would like to learn more about the costs of operations so that we can build a well-informed business model.'' Google details Mtn. View WiFi plan So Google is interested in deploying a wireless network in its hometown of Mt. View, CA, to check out metro-scale Wi Fi and verify the business model. This is good news, what we've all been waiting for. No, make that GREAT news! When giants decide to do something substantial, we will all be affected at some point. Google-watching is a fascinating sport. Speaking of Google, I really enjoy the writing of Robert Cringely. In his weekly e-column on PBS.com, Cringely provides some of the best insights around. In the column below, he opines on Google and two other industry giants, Microsoft and WalMart. Many comparisons have been drawn between Microsoft and Google, given their size and influence on the technology world. But Cringely says the appropriate comparison is to WalMart, not Microsoft: Sam Walton Taught Google More About How to Dominate the Internet Than Microsoft Ever Did Play to your strengths. That's the key to success in any industry. This is the week I promised to explain where I think Google is headed, and playing to the company's strengths is key if they are going to do what I think, which is effectively take over the Internet. Oh they won't steal it or strong-arm us. They'll seduce us into giving it to them. And I am not at all sure that's a bad thing. Google's strengths are searching, development of Open Source Internet services, and running clusters of tens of thousands of servers. Notice on this list there is nothing about operating systems. There are many rumors about Google doing an operating system to compete with Microsoft. I'm not saying they aren't doing that (I simply don't know), but I AM saying it would not be a good idea, because it doesn't play to any of the company's traditional strengths. The same follows for the rumor that Google, as a dark fiber buyer, will turn itself into some kind of super ISP. Won't happen. And WHY it won't happen is because ISPs are lousy businesses and building one as anything more than an experiment (as they are doing in San Francisco with wireless) would only hurt Google's earnings. Google-Mart Cringely goes on to describe how Google is placing whole datacenters throughout the world to make data widely available at low latency to users. The focus on distribution of data mimics the focus that WalMart brought to the retail industry, only Google moves bits rather than physical goods. For ths model to really be complete, Google needs high-speed Internet ubiquity, and that's where municipal broadband comes in. I don't expect that Google is willing to wait while Verizon, ATT, Comcast, and TimeWarner push their version of broadband out to the world. Call this Chapter One in a grand experiment that holds great promise for the municipal broadband industry. If Google puts its considerable weight behind this industry - the "Google Model" anyone? - to stimulate the Interent market and bring more and more people on line, then the pace of municipal deployments will pick up conisderably. How will it happen? Don't know, but the entry of Google into this industry will send a signal, as I say in the Vision Statement on the Home Page of this website. And that signal will say "Come on in, the water's fine!" and "Let's get Busy!" And then, the rush will be on. Who knows, we may have to create an entirely new Google section on this website at some point. You should also check out a post I made on Google about a month ago GoogleNet? Not as Far Fetched as You Might Think. Posted on November 20, 2005 at 07:24 PM | Comments (0) Time for Municipal Broadband?...the contents of the laborer's budget, say from 1760 to 1940, did not simply grow on unchanging lines but they underwent a process of qualitative change. Similarly, the history of the productive apparatus of a typical farm, from the beginnings of the rationalization of crop rotation, plowing and fattening to the mechanized thing of today - linking up with elevators and railroads - is a history of revolutions. So is the history of the productive apparatus of the iron and steel industry from the charcoal furnace to our own type of furnace, or the history of the apparatus of power production from the overshot water wheel to the modern power plant, or the history of transportation from the mailcoach to the airplane. The opening up of new markets, foreign or domestic, and the organizational development from the craft shop and factory to such concerns as U.S. Steel illustrate the same process of industrial mutation - if I may use that biological term - that incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one. This process of Creative Destruction is the essential fact about capitalism. It is what capitalism consists in and what every capitalist concern has got to live in. . . . Joseph A. Schumpeter, "Creative Destruction" from Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (New York: Harper, 1975) For those of us who grew up in the second half of the Twentieth Century, we should be forgiven for believing in technological miracles. For each gloom and doom economic message that we have heard over the past several decades, it seems, there has been a technological advance that has changed the rules of the game. Indeed, such advances have changed the way we live and work. What innovation did in eras past, as Schumpeter describes above, technology does today. It's as if technology has assumed the role of some supernatural genie that regularly produces wonders that reshuffle the deck. From PCs, to cell phones, to the Internet, to Wireless Broadband, something has come along to provide more for less, opening up what were expensive toys of the rich and making them available to the masses. It's the pace of change that has speeded up, the process is the same. So when I read this very well written plea for attention to our nation's broadband infrastructure, or lack thereof, The Urgent Call for Broadband in America, I had to applaud the call to arms. But I was also a little assured by the Technological Genie that things will all work out all right in the end. Call me an optimist. What we have, as the author so capably shows, is more of a political crisis than a technological one. We lack leadership in the US to acknowledge the changed landscape and stand up to the powerful politcal lobby of the incumbent industries that seeks to manage any changes to benefit their shareholders, rather than the American public. After participating in this debate for nearly two years, I am convinced of two things. Technology will produce its required miracles to reshuffle the deck even further, and those incumbents who deny this change are on the wrong side of history. So I was reasssured again when I read this editorial last week Building a Better Boom, whcih describes a new, better economic boom underway based on the advances in technology over the past decade. So what if technology pulls the political lagards along. If that's the way it has to be, they will come along, sooner or later. They have to at some point. They are trying to rewrite the rules of capitalism, to extend their hold on markets without earning their position anew by providing more value. So, enter WiMAX, our latest Technology Genie du Jour. In Unstrung - WiMax & 'Jet Blue Economics' we see the innovation engine in practice, as WiMAX pioneer Towerstream has crafted a clever go-to-market strategy that takes advantage of the unique qualities of WiMAX to address the particular needs we see in today's market, borrowing business practices from successful competitors outside the telecom industry. For a more in depth treatment of WiMAX, I recommend this on-line article, Convergence - WiMax Deployment Models, which drills down on different technological aspects of WiMAX. Hype is when the description exceeds the capabilities of reality. Those with a vested interest in incumbent technologies may dismiss WiMAX as hype, but the proponents of newer, alternate technologies like WiMAX and Wi Fi Mesh will craft market messages that solve market problems, to gain market entry. They are clever and motivated and they see great potential in municipal broadband. Cities have a need for more efficient and cost-effective telecom solutions, and the budding municipal broadband market is evidence of how new technology will find a way to partner its way into a new market. Trying to keep this new technology away from needy markets is like trying to keep teenagers away from each other after puberty hits. A lot of effort, only to delay the inevitable. No Thanks. I choose to believe in the power of the marketplace and in the technology innovation engine, so I'll wait and watch, to see the latest miracle unfold that will liberate the masses from those who would resist change for their own interests. We've seen it too many times in the past to not believe that it will happen again. Personally, I'm looking forward to seeing my $500/month budget for digital cable, local & long distance telephone, cable broadband, and cellular phone service start to come back down from the stratosphere. Come on, Genie, we're rooting for you! Posted on November 19, 2005 at 08:25 PM | Comments (0) Texas Wireless Symposium: The Future in the Eye of the BeholderHere in my hometown, we have an annual event, now in its third year, sponsored by the Wireless Networking & Communications Group at the University of Texas, this year dubbed the Texas Wireless Symposium. And this year, that sponsorship is shifting over to the Austin Wireless Alliance, a local group of over 100 companies allied to share information on wireless, and promote industry development in Austin. The evolution of this conference reflects the growing commercialization of wireless. In its first year, the conference was heaviliy loaded with academics and theoretical discussions on radio engineering, etc. Last year, while there were more highly technical discussions than I would have liked, the program had shifted to include discussion of business issues and different flavors of wireless. This year, you can see the commercial side creeping in. The opening of the program was heavily weighted on the cellular side, with a kickoff Keynote from Steve Largent, CEO of the Cellular Telephone Industry Association (CTIA). I was disappointed that he toed the line on the munipcal policy debate, trotting out the old canard of the public sector competing against the private sector. That just is not happening. And the panels were weighted with representives from Verizon, Cingular, etc. But as the conference went on, more was heard from alternative wireless technologies like Wi Fi Mesh, WiMAX, UltraWideband, and others. One interesting point of discussion has been when panel members dismiss WiMAX and gently highlight the hype aspects, careful not to be too disparaging, but nevertheless state that they are unimpressed with the technology and its potential. I call this the conventional view - when cellular companies brag on 2 BILLION subscribers, growing to 3 BILLION worldwide, its easy to understand their prejudice to an interloper like WiMAX or Wi Fi Mesh, which could disrupt their party - they are currently where the money is, and they'd like to stay there. At least for now, I would add, cellular is huge. But I'm glad to see that I'm not alone in seeing the promise of Wi Fi Mesh and WiMAX - these panels have been challenged by members from the audience during the Q&A period by those who see WiMAX, in particular, in a different light. Clearly, it's an item that is in discussion and hotly debated. This discussion is in stark contrast to the WiMAX World conference going on in Boston this week - I bet the discussion on WiMAX is different from their perspective. The current panel underway while I'm blogging is discussing the venture financing aspects of wireless, with the moderator from Austin's own Motion Computing kicking off discussions. Dr. Preston Marshall from DARPA is talking now, and he's interested in technologies that are "infrastructure-less". Gotta love DARPA for pushing out the envelope. 'We invented IP, and that was great, but we want to know what is next." The themes are convergence on the application side, convergence on the handset side, the convergence of WiMAX and cellular WAN technologies around OFDM at the 4G level, in about 4 years, and the potential of these technologies working together in integrated systems - WiMAX and Wi Fi mesh as overlay technologies, for instance. I guess that's what conferences like this are good for, to get people to speculate in public about the unknown future. We can't see there, but we can speculate. Clearly, the incumbent industry expects the future wireless world to look somewhat like it does today. Those who read this blog probably have a little broader viewpoint. (pun intended) I'll post tomorrow during the municipal broadband panel (no doubt, that will be the most interesting panel of the week!!). Posted on October 27, 2005 at 01:39 PM | Comments (0) Through the Looking Glass...Go Ask Alice, I Think She'll KnowWhen logic and proportion Feed your head (Jefferson Airplane, 1967) More and more, I feel like I'm down a rabbit hole with Alice in Wonderland. Telecom, Vdeo, Internet, and Wireless take up more frequent and larger chunks of the business section in my paper, but the articles give an often confusing account of what is going on. Nothing seems to make sense. Cities are behind some rural areas. Little companies do what big companies just talk about. Cable companies provide voice. Telecom companies want to provide video. Municipal wireless consultant Greg Richardson opines on the odd behavior of telecoms in his weblog for Civitium. Civitium's Weblog: The Definition of Insanity Why do telecomes persist in fighting municpal broadband, when clearly it's a trend with sufficent momentum to go the distance, and their efforts to stop it have not to date borne fruit? Why do they both not want to serve rural areas, AND not want rural towns to serve themselves? Sane? Insane? Desperate? Deadly Serious? Highly Motivated? You make the call. Clearly, telecoms will see their revenues from voice calls continue to decline in the coming months and years, with cellular phones chipping away at landline usage, and a myriad of VOIP options shifting into high gear. In press reports at the end of last week, SBC explained its 41% decline in profits for the quarter. While that high number can be explained in part by special events, such as the sale of a profitable directory business, higher costs related to hurricanes and a merger with AT&T Wireless, one has to think that declining voice revenues play a part. SBC's chief financial officer, Richard Lindner, said that investors focus too heavily on how many phone lines carriers have. Instead, he said, investors should consider all of SBC's services, including broadband, cellphones and video. "All of those things represent connections to the customer and represent revenue sources," Mr. Lindner said on a conference call with financial analysts. But some industry specialists disagree. Cable companies are persuading tens of thousands of customers to drop their phone service from SBC and the other Bell companies and instead subscribe to one of their new - and often cheaper - digital phone services. (October 21, 2005 New York Times) But its not just about voice, so don't give up on the telecoms just yet. At the Telecom '05 conference this week, for instance, the Triple Play is all the rage. Change afoot for telecom industry tells us that Voice, Video, and Broadband constitute the Triple Play, and SBC won a big victory with passage of a statewide franchise law in Texas a few months ago. They will try to do the same thing in Washington at the federal level, paving the way for a Triple Play offer over high speed fiber. But that will take time. Evolving technology and financial necessity are driving the change as growth in the voice business has slowed amid a growing field of competitors. It is an uphill fight for telephone companies, given cable's decades-long dominance in video, but the ultimate winners could be consumers, analysts say. The coming slugfest over America's living rooms could rein in the rising price of pay-TV prices. "The cable television industry has not had a fierce competitor," said Jeff Kagan, an independent telecommunications analyst based in Atlanta. "The Verizon offering is a bargain compared to the cable television offerings. I think if enough customers cancel their cable company service for their phone company television service, then the cable companies will cut their costs." However, he said, competition on a nationwide scale is still years away. (October 24, Austin American-Statesman) That's years away for those big city folks faithfully waiting for their traditiional telecom or cable company to bring them services. But for those lucky folks, often in the smaller towns, whose municpalities lead with wireless solutions, the future is now. Smaller rural areas are in the hunt with innovative wireless solutions, as described in Wi-Fi cloud hovers over rural Oregon landscape This article has a great overview of the types of innovative solutions that are possible once an area is covered by a wireless cloud. While cities around the country are battling over plans to offer free or cheap Internet access, this lonely terrain is served by what is billed as the world's largest hotspot, a wireless cloud that stretches over 700 square miles of landscape so dry and desolate it could have been lifted from a cowboy tune. When a common network is available at affordable rates, many different groups can step up and share the costs and a profitable business model is available. Sure, it won't kick up millions of dollars that can go to lobbyists in Washington and in state capitals, but the municipal wireless approach, most often in partnership with a small innovative private company, can provide a backbone for all kinds of new applications and business innovations. Voice, Video, and High Speed Internet Access - the Triple Play - that's only the beginning. A world of new solutions awaits those with a high-speed broadband wireless cloud. My advice - do your homework, ask around, make a plan, take action, try new solutions, keep reading, feed your head. There's just no substiute for open eyes, open ears, and most importantly, an open mind in today's business climate. Posted on October 24, 2005 at 07:58 AM | Comments (0) GoogleNet? Not as Far Fetched as You Might ThinkThis is the longest work-in-progress blog I've written, having started it almost one month ago. So, I've been traveling lately, and its almost as hard to blog on the road for me as it is to exercise, so I haven't made much progress here lately. But I think this Google / San Francisco story has legs. I saw Mayor Gavin Newsome speak last week at the W2I Digital Cities event, and he might just get my vote if I lived in San Francisco. His vision is a good fit with Google's, so watch this story for more fascinating twists and turns in the near term. First it would build a national broadband network -- let's call it the GoogleNet -- massive enough to rival even the country's biggest Internet service providers. Business 2.0 has learned from telecom insiders that Google is already building such a network, though ostensibly for many reasons. For the past year, it has quietly been shopping for miles and miles of "dark," or unused, fiber-optic cable across the country from wholesalers such as New York's AboveNet. It's also acquiring superfast connections from Cogent Communications and WilTel, among others, between East Coast cities including Atlanta, Miami, and New York. Such large-scale purchases are unprecedented for an Internet company, but Google's timing is impeccable. The rash of telecom bankruptcies has freed up a ton of bargain-priced capacity, which Google needs as it prepares to unleash a flood of new, bandwidth-hungry applications. These offerings could include everything from a digital-video database to on-demand television programming. What's Next :: Free Wi-Fi? Get Ready for GoogleNet. Telecom pundit Om Malik opines on what Google may be up to in this August 25 article. One thing's for sure, with a name like Google and access to the capital to back up their ambitions, this outfit thinks big. So when Google started nosing around San Francisco last month, they got significant notice from the press. That really picked up when they offered to build the network for free. Google has a staggering $7 billion in the bank and is using it to fund some off-the-wall ideas, so maybe the Mountain View company's bid to provide free wireless Internet service throughout San Francisco will be a one-shot deal. But I see Google as a knight in shining armor, decapitating the two-headed monster of SBC and Comcast that has controlled high-speed Internet access for Bay Area consumers. And check out this great blog from the start of this month about the competitive aspects of Google's potential market entry. Linux Pipeline | Google In The Air So, lots of press for Google and San Fran. What does it mean? Let's pause for a short survey: fill in the blank in this sentence: "My life would be dramatically improved if __________." We all have this internal conversation from time to time (some of us more often than others), and the blanks get filled in with wishes like Well, believe it or not, Google actually believes that it can help THE WHOLE WORLD with items a-d. Now that's what I call visionary. There's no doubt some will argue that high speed Internet access could also help you with items e-k, but I'm not going to go there. Fact is, Google envsions a whole new world with everyone using Google software, and even if it doesn't have the clout to make it reality, it certainly can stir up a good bit of press. But I wouldn't rule out the potential for Google and the followers it inevitably gets along the way to make that vision a reality - Hello, New World Order. Surf the GoogleNet, anyone? Finally, for a great discussion of San Francisco and Google, check out this Podcast. On Point : WiFi America If you haven't tried a podcast yet, I'd urge you to jump on in, the water's fine, and this is a good listen. And you don't actually need an iPod to listen to a Podcast. Posted on October 21, 2005 at 06:07 PM | Comments (0) That's What I'm Saying....Talking in the Dark This article from the NY Times Sunday Magazine makes the point I've been trying to make for three weeks on this page. Mesh Networks are waiting in the wings as a great, cheap, effective alternative for disaster recovery. Some critics challenge whether wireless mesh would be sufficiently reliable in the wake of a disaster. My response - "when five 9's goes to six 0's after a disaster, any communication at all is an improvement." I think we need to collectively adjust our standards for communication and have a paradigm shift regarding how we defend against unplanned disasters. In addition to fortifying our exisitng dominant networks (which is inevitable with all the lobbyists in Washington), we should also build alternate networks that will be left standing when the dominant network is taken out. These would be overlay networks that would complement the dominant networks, not replace them. In that way, such networks should be judged by a different standard: their resilience, not their ability to deliver "carrier grade" telecommunications. Just as highways are available for ambulances and police cars, whose sirens and lights communicate to regular users to pull over and cede the network to the first responders, mesh networks buiilt for disaster could be used during regular times for any public purpose, enjoyed by the community and enriching the public life, but when needed, they would be converted to an all-emergency responder network at the snap of an operator's fingers. Insurance is something we buy so that we can spread the risk of a disaster, and have cash to rebuid and recover from the disaster. It's a wonderful invention of modern business, spreading the risk among the whole community and allowing buisnesses and individuals to maintain continuity in their lives. There is also the concept of self-insurance, where one sets aside enough resources to get by on one's own in the event of a disaster. That is what mesh networks would become for a community. Self-insurance, which would ensure that the community could talk to each other after a disaster, and get itself back on its feet ASAP, regardless of the speed of outsiders' help. And such self insurance is within economic reach of every town in the US. If we can't predict where disaster will strike, or how we wil recover, we can at least ensure that we can talk to each other so we can help each other. Mesh networks are a ray of sunshine in these dark times. And FEMA, Homeland Security, Congress, and the White House could earn huge points wth a disenchanted public by helping communities to build such networks, addressing the Digital Divide, conquering the rural broadband deficit, and all the while, making the nation safer, more self-reliant, and more resilient. It could happen. Call your congressman today. Posted on September 19, 2005 at 10:54 PM | Comments (0) What's In Store for Community Broadband?If I haven't posted in a while, it's probably because I've been travelling. Indeed, I'm not ready to repeat last week's performance anytime again soon - I hit all four corners of the US in five days, now I'm happy to be home again - and blogging again! I wanted to write about a highlight of all that travel. I attended the PTI Seminar on Community Broadband and gave the keynote address. The Public Technologies Institute had their seminar on Friday, September 16 in Charlotte, and some very smart people were in attendance. First, those who attended were smart enough to realize that Charlotte was well removed from the path of Hurricane Ophelia, so they showed up (those who didn't missed out). Second, these are some of the movers and shakers in metropolitan broadband networking. It was enjoyable and enlightening to spend time with them. We received updates on the current state of community broadband, including a review of the draft Barton Dingell bill released the day before, and a shared discussion on their own projects. Updates included a discussion on Unwire Portland and comments from the authors of the Dayton, Ohio initiative and the Washtenaw County, Michigan wireless effort, Wireless Washtenaw. It was a very information-packed gathering and I encourage you readers in the future to check out what PTI has to offer regarding municipal networking. I was asked to deliver the keynote address with the title "The Future of Community Broadband. Why? How?" I provided a review of what I consider the ten driving reasons why community broadband will happen, and the ten ways in which it is likely to come about. My conclusions? Well, first I promoted a new book that I enjoyed on the various airplanes last week: Amazon.com: Books: The Forgotten Half of Change : Achieving Greater Creativity through Changes in Perception. This book by Luc de Brabandere was a refreshing read on the need for all of us to change to keep up with all the environmental change we experience, which has become a constant these days. And you need to not just change your reality, but also the way you look at things - your perspective impacts your perceptions. If you think change is a burden, this guy will lighten up that perspective as well. There truly is something wondrous happening every day, you just have to look for it. You will find what you expect to see, so look for what you want. But I digress - on to the keynote. From my perspective, community broadband is bound to happen because major environmental forces are pushing cities in that direction and they will prove to be irresistable forces. First, technology pressures favor solutions that are based on IP architecture, that leverage the Internet as a communication medium, that are wireless (mobile), and that empower the edge (individuals) over the core (large distribution companies). Second, economic (market) pressues force cities to compete with all cities worldwide, cities are committed to serving their citizens, and they must lower their costs even while raising service levels - broadband networks and the applications they carry will finally offer too much value to ignore. Finally, the disastrous performance of government at all levels in response to Hurricane Katrina puts an unprecedented focus on the role of government in a disaster, and improvements to communciation infrastructure are inevitable. Pressure from the Technology Environment Pressure from the Competitive Environment Disaster Preparation Requires an Alternative Communication Solution As for how community broadband will happen, these forces will meet the traditional resistance to change inherent in any institution, and the impacts of the changes will require political compromise. This will take time, and so the implementation of community broadband is likely to follow the penetration curve experienced by most new technologies. How long the pioneer stage lasts will depend on the clash of the forces of change (progress) and the forces of inertia (incumbents). I believe that sooner rather than later, the tipping point will be reached, large and powerful entities will pile on, and community broadband will take off like a rocket. When the community networks interconnect, in the final consolidation phase, we will begin to see the dramatic effects of interconnectivity, not unlike the impacts we see today from the Internet. Pioneer Stage Cities Experiment with Municipal Networks Rapid Expansion Stage - Larger Organizations Adapt, Trend Explodes Consolidation Stage - Nodes Transform into a National Network Please download the PowerPoint slidesand the accompanying white paper by clicking on these links. Posted on September 19, 2005 at 12:27 PM | Comments (0) With Broadband Internet, is Traditional Government Becoming Irrelevant?At this moment, if we were to poll US citiizens and ask them "Just what is it that government is good for anyway?" we would likely get a response on the order of, "NOTHIN', ABSOLUTELY NOTHIN." But before we throw the baby out with the bathwater, I'd like to suggest that federal, state, and local government have large roles to play, but that the changing technology landscape means that their roles are undergoing a transformation. Clearly, when it comes to rapid response, it may well be that local citizens and businesses are far better equipped to provide very rapid and flexible assistance, as this blog from CNET News.com Net beats Feds in hurricane response asserts and as comments to the blog drive the point home. The blog demonstrates how order and solutions arose spontaneously from chaos in the aftermath of the flood, but not from the federal government (or state or local government either), which together and separate were spectacularly ineffiective in mitigating the disaster, or in providing what we have come to expect from our governments in first response public safety and disaster recovery. Instead, it was local individuals, as well as individuals out on the Internet, equipped with modern communications who began organizing on their own, without asking anyone's permission, well in advance of official authorities, to meet victims' needs. If you have read a few of my favorite books, such as Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means by Albert-Laszlo Barabasi and Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software by Steven Johnson and finally, The Wisdom of the Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations by James Surowiecki all highlighted in the Books and Whitepapers section of this website, then this development should not come as a surprise to you. So what pearls of wisdom do these sages offer up to us in these times of crisis? First, Barabasi shows how networks have come of age and have become the defining organizational construct - those who grasp this fundamental realignment and know how to put it to use have tremendous power, while those who don't, are left working with yesterday's tools and yesterday's paradigm (Homeland Security and FEMA, are you listening?). Second, Johnson compares decision making among ants (who are considerably less pensive than humans), with traditional hierarchical decision making as practiced by bureaucracies. When faced with an unexpected circumstance, emergent systems with a few simple rules can be more effective than traditional pre-programmed systems. With a few simple hormonal communication signals, for instance, ants can be highly effective at dealing with unplanned disturbances to their status quo, demonstrating the concept of emergence, or bottom-up decision making. Finally, Surowiecki shows that believe it or not, a roomful of fairly well informed average people make better decisions than your proverbial panel of experts, with statistically relevant consistency. And anyone with cable television was apparently better informed than the government "experts" were last week. As I relate in the whitepaper I put together a few months back, On Structural Change, we have fallen through the Alice in Wonderland rabbit hole, and the Internet has launched us all on a new path, whether we like it or not, by moving power out to the edges and away from large central planners. Napster was no fluke, Peer to Peer has arrived. With broadband connectivity and digital information, smart actors out on the edges are empowered and can act quicker than can bureaucracies. The idea of a centrally-planned disaster response may be seen in a few years as the wrong way to approach the idea of Homeland Security. It may be that government should instead provide monetary assistance after the fact as FEMA traditionally does, and facilitate a response with military resources and equipment via the National Guard, but that we should depend on each other for immediate response with a more distributed disaster recovery methodology. We are at the very early stages of analyzing what worked (not much) and what didn't work last week in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Some will argue that government should have executed their responsibilities better (what an understatement that is!), and others will point to the failure of either the federal or local government branches. Let us hope that our policy makers and political leaders take a step back and reconsider the paradigms and assumptions they are using. We have more resources at our disposal than multi-billion dollar agencies and programs, and money does not solve all problems (although it does feel good to give it and to get it). Rather we should look at how we can harness all of our available resources for rapid response, including individuals with networked computers far from the disaster, to work more effectively together, like the ants do when I step on their anthill, as I am wont to do while mowing the yard. Posted on September 07, 2005 at 02:11 PM | Comments (0) What Stands in the Way of Unwiring?As I said in my most recent newsletter, I'm enjoying blogging, and I hope you readers find some value on these pages. Peak daily visitors on the site since its launch just two short months ago has grown to just over 400 unique visitors. And Registered Users has grown to 186! I conssider that a decent start for a home-grown effort like this, and I hope all of you readers who like what you see will not just keep coming back, but also go ahead and tell one or two more people to check it out, to help the community grow. For my part, I'm committed to adding more and more useful content over time and to continue to organize the content to make it even more useful for you as a tool to UnwireYourCity. Poll Results In keeping with my goal to build a community, I'm asking questions to better understand how you feel, as an informal means of interacting with readers on the site. The latest poll question asked, "What do you consider the PRIMARY constraint to deploying a municipal wireless broadband network?" Here were the results: Cost/Lack of Funding Source 31% In the middle of the pack, one out of seven respondents (14%) saw regulatory issues as the major impediment, and the same amount felt that network planners needed to know more about the issues before moving forward. I don't find these results significant, as some readers face signficant regulatory obstacles, and knowledge on wireless issues can vary greatly. We can conclude from this poll that Unwiring a City is a complex policy decision that requires consensus buillding and significant planning. In all cases, a financial strategy is needed, and (in some cases), a legal/regulatory strategy. Finally, planners need a thorough understanding of issues involved with networks. What do you conclude? Comment below to let me know. I'm confident that UnwireMyCity addresses these issues, and going forward this will be useful information for me to tailor content to ensure that these issues receive appropriate coverage by priority. New Poll Notice that I posted a new poll/survey today. I'm curious to learn what you think of our US government's approach to broadband. Specifically, do you think we even have a federal policy on broadband? (you know what I think from my blog last Friday). Please let me know what else you would like to understand about community opinions on wireless issues and I'll post a new poll to survey our community. Thanks for your support and keep coming back! Posted on August 29, 2005 at 04:07 PM | Comments (0) More Broadband Rankings
RED HERRING | U.S. Goes High Speed, Slowly Here's the latest in a number of projections about broadband penetration and where we in the US stand compared to other nations. By the way, not having read the Forrestor study, I'm just opining here on what I read in the article. Red Herring acknowledges that 62 percent is a big leap from 2004's 29 percent, but then draws the inevitable comparison with the global gold standard for broadband, South Korea, with 75 percent penetration already. I've already weighed in on what I think of big country/small country comparisons (Canadian Broadband Penetration Trumps US), let it suffice to say that we are talking apples and oranges when we make such broad comparisons. I would challenge some things I read in this article, notably the conclusion of the Forrestor analyst Maribel Lobez, who characterized broadband access as a "nice to have." In today's digital economy, that's like saying electricity is not essential, but "nice to have." As Red Herring puts it: a delay of widespread broadband access in the United States means missed opportunities for economic growth, innovation, and investment. Broadband access is hardly a "nice to have" in a hyper-competitive global econmomy - tell that to small towns clamoring for networks so they don't lose major employers who "must have" broadband to compete. Forrester's survey, The State of Consumer Technology, surveyed more than 68,000 U.S. households to look at consumer interest in various technologies, found access to broadband grew from 19 percent in 2003 to 29 percent in 2004. The figure is a relatively rapid rate and far higher than growth in previous years; Mrs. Lopez attributed the rapid growth to a spike in DSL availability along with price points in the affordable $20 to $30 range. Broadband is moving into the fat part of the bell curve, where we can expect much broader market interest. But then the article turned south for me, as Mrs. Lopez engaged in political speculation about taxpayer subsidized networks and broadband as a "universal right" or a "nice to have" technology. Red Herring does a good job of bringing out opposing analyst opinions on the value of broadband to an economy. It goes way beyond Internet access. Notably, Red Herring highlights the US lag in broadband penetration as compared to its competitors worldwide (#12 and falling with a bullet). Acknowledging that small countries like South Korea are little threat to the U.S. economy (Thank You!), Red Herring cites competition from rapidly developing countries like China and India, although it is decades away. But they are coming on and there is no time for complacency. Come on wireless, and someone tell Mrs. Lopez about Wi Fi Mesh networks. Posted on August 07, 2005 at 07:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack DSL Ruling Will Be A LandmarkFCC eases rules on DSL providers A spate of articles on the Internet offer preliminary analysis of the FCC ruling from Friday, August 5. In case you haven't heard, the FCC took another step to "level the playing field" between the two dominant broadband technologies: cable and telecom-based DSL. See the other three articles at the bottom of this blog for alternative perspectives on the FCC DSL ruling. Six weeks ago in the Brand X decision, when the Supreme Court disagreed with the 9th Circuit and reaffirmed the FCC's contention that cable broadband was an information service, and so not subject to traditional telecom regulations, we heard the final word on a long-held question - is broadband a telecom or an information service? While Congress in a rewrite of the Federal Telecom Act of 1996 is likely to speak further on the regulation of broadband, the Supreme Court's action left the FCC with a perceived imbalance, because if cable broadband was information service, why wouldn't telecom DSL broadband be information service also? So they corrected this awkward policy position on Friday by giving telecom-based DSL the same treatment - its broadband service is an information service also, so not subject to telecom regulations, which will be phased out. According to the telecom establishment, a broadband tsunami will be unleashed by this ruling, as the lack of control of their infrastructure (they were required to let competitors onto their networks) kept the Bells hamstrung, and prevented them from waging an aggessive rollout of broadband infrastructure. Now, finally, they can get going. But their reliance on wired infrastructure means that it will take time to deploy networks. So what does cable/DSL broadband competition look like? We could look a lot of places, but my hometown paper offered a convenient article (Deals galore for Net access) today, so let's check that out. Competition like we've become accustomed to with cellphones may be coming to broadband soon, according to this article. So far, I haven't seen it (I'm still paying $45/month for Time Warner broadband, reluctant to switch to DSL), but here in the most wired city in the US, maybe we'll be on the front row. One way to cut prices is to hop from promotion to promotion, but providers have figured that out and tend to tie in a commitment, as with SBC, which has cut its price even more this year, down to $14.95 a month with a 12-month contract. And they're starting to break up service into levels, ranging from a little faster than dial-up to multiple-megs. In recent months, SBC, Time Warner and other companies have been slashing prices, with cut-rate offers that make some grades of broadband as affordable as old-fashioned and far slower dial-up service. Citing penetration of about 35 million U.S. households with some form of high-speed Internet access since it came about in the late 1990s, the Statesman says the target of the rate cuts is the estimated 36 million dial-up users (at the end of 2004) who might switch to broadband if the price were right — and who might then become customers for other services the companies sell. Time Warner Cable, the dominant cable provider in the Austin area, responded to aggressive moves by SBC by promoting Road Runner Lite, a slower version of its high-speed service, for $19.95 a month, which I may consider, but I wonder how "lite" it is and if I'll notice the difference. Broadband Internet service is moving from a novelty to a necessity, thus my hesitation to go down in speed in order to go down in price. I like my high-speed Internet. Would you seriously consider cutting your phone bill in half if it meant that the sound quality would go crackly now and then, and sometimes your phone wouldn't ring? I'm not buying that I have to go down in quality in order to get a discount. It's one thing when your standard of comparison is dial up, but another when you've been using high-speed for years. So, they are not focused on winning me over. But a lot of consumers are more price-sensitive than I am. Clearly, this is the growth area for cable and DSL broadband providers, not only dial up users, but price sensitive broadband users. And there is more at stake than broadband, as the price skirmishes are part of a bigger war between cable and phone companies. Each industry is trying to expand onto the other's turf. Both are offering broadband as part of a bundle of services that include phone, Internet and cable television. It's the so-called triple play that the industry believes will be the basis for business well into the future. "Both these industries see where their rivals are headed, and they are trying to capture customers now and keep them," Brumfield said. "They are trying to rope in service to the home." The goal is to lure new customers with bargain prices and hope they like broadband service enough to keep it after the introductory price expires. What I hate is the irony of this marketing, where they seem to be begging me to switch. I don't feel loved by my broadband provider. Get this, they are actually nicer to the customers they don't have, than the ones that they do have - that's not real competitive behavior, in my book. Most of the promotional offers are not open to that provider's current broadband customers. And indeed, that was the case when I talked to Time Warner last week. So, I'm hesitantly banking on FCC Chairman Martin's wisdom, and will be watching from a ring-side seat as two of the biggest broadband providers duke it out in one of the most penetrated markets in the US. But I'm also promoting wireless at the same time, more or less written off in all the discussion this weekend - I really believe that a wireless network inserted into a duopoly wired network will keep all the players more honest, and result in even more competition. Let's watch the Bells closely and the cables even closer. "The phone companies' voice business is already drying up," Brumfield said. "That's why they are making sure they get as much market share as possible as quickly as possible before the cable companies come in and eat their lunch with low-cost phone service. They are really trying to solidify as many customer relationships as they can before the real competition arrives." SBC and its peers have been losing phone customers over the past few years, as more people rely on cell phones or switch to new services such as cable's Internet phone service... and Brumfield and other analysts said the cable companies are cutting prices grudgingly. "The cable companies don't want to harm their profit margins," Brumfield said. "They don't want to get into a commodity competition." Time Warner, Brumfield said, is not promoting Road Runner Lite on a national basis. "This is very much specific to markets where they are feeling some competitive heat." See these three articles for further perspective on this complicated issue. FCC removes DSL network-sharing rules | InfoWorld | By Grant Gross, IDG News Service This article by Grant Gross provides a good overview - picked up by many Internet news providers, so you will start to read the same article over and over again as you surf. The Progress & Freedom Foundation Blog: Bravo on Broadband FCC protects property rights of telecom companies, finally coming to their senses. Pheww!! PCWorld.com - DSL Deregulation Effort Sparks Opposition Consumers Union and other consumer groups' prayers go unanswered as FCC deregulates telecom DSL to create a duopoly. Consumer groups predict dire consequences, and hey they called it right with FTA 96... Posted on August 07, 2005 at 02:34 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack On the Future of Municipal WirelessJodi Sherman Jahic on the future of municipal wireless: trends to watch This week, MuniWireless.com featured this article by Jodi Sherman Jahic, a principal at Voyager Capital based in Silicon Valley. She leads Voyager's wireless sector team and represents Voyager's investments in Tropos Networks, Melodeo, and Contivo, so she should know what she's talking about. Ms. Jahic noted four key trends in municpal wireless broadband: 1) Technology: WiMAX will enter the muni wireless market but will not displace Wi-Fi; 2) Market: Like many new markets, the demand for municipal wireless solutions will be overestimated in the early days but underestimated in the long run; 3) Vendors: Municipal wireless vendors will start competing on performance and experience, not just features; and 4) Applications: Machine-to-machine applications of municipal wireless networks will emerge to become a significant driver of network demand. The bottom line: WiMAX will fit in with Wi Fi mesh as part of an integrated technology approach to provide wireless systems for municipal broadband, which will receive a lot of attention in the near term, some of which it will not deserve, but in the long run, it will prove to be a significant technology development. There will be a shakeout in wireless vendors, with a few key players emerging and prices stabilizing, and applications will drive more and more of our thinking about these networks, as we move beyond the fascination of getting on-line wherever we are and checking our email. This is in keeping with the direction I've been taking this web site, to focus on Community Involvement and how-to to get a network started, and then drill down on applications - what you do with a network like this. The fascination with wireless broadband will fade away as we learn to use it as just one more tool to get our jobs done and enhance our daily lives. This is a good read and I recommend you check it out. Posted on August 05, 2005 at 09:07 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack Broadband: What's in a Word?200 Kbs is Not Broadband This blog by Om Malik (See Pundits and Blogs) prompted me to go back to the Glossary of Wireless Terms and add a definition for "broadband" - what an oversight! But this is a hotly debated topic, it turns out. Those who provide access to the Internet that is faster than dial up (> 56Kbs) would seek to claim the title of broadband, yet their service is so slow as to make downloading videos, for instance, an interminable process - hardly broadband. In countries like Korea and Japan, very high speeds are becoming commonplace (>10 Mbs), but we lag here in the US. This article E-Commerce News: Technology: Group Claims US Inflating Broadband Growth Figures claims that the definition of broadband is being kept low to make us look better (or less worse) than we really are. Where the FCC claims anything above 200 Kbs as broadband, out in the real world the test is being able to handle video over the Internet. Personally, I define broadband as so fast that I hardly notice it working in the background. When my cable modem bogs down, as it does in the evening, it hardly feels like broadband to me, but I have to admit, itis still a far cry from the dial up I had five years ago. Still, we should not be looking back to draw a comparison and marvel at today's speeds (the E-Commerce article reaches back to 13 years ago, when broadband was 45 Kbs), but forward to what other countries are doing, and to what is possible. I vote for moving the standard up, and creating some distinction in terms: there is a big gulf between some ILECs 200 Kbs and Korea's 10 Mbs, 50 times faster! Posted on August 03, 2005 at 07:27 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack Broadband Access: Where are you on the scale?Broadband News. Is Broadband a Utility? A Right? A Luxury? Here's an interesting dialogue that responds to the posted question: Is broadband access a utility, a right, or a luxury? It's fascinating to read a thread like this, not only for the content - the comments and positions - but also to watch the type of community dialogue that unfolds naturally, realizing that the dialogue is in what is essentially a tool that came about with the advent of broadband, greatly facilitated by broadband access. Sure, you had discussions like this before broadband, but it is the widespread penetration of broadband that is making these types of forums (fora?) more and more commonplace. I recommend you check this out late on a Friday afternoon with a drink in your hand...like, right about now. Not necessarily serious stuff, but certainly thought provoking. As for me and my two cents worth, I think that once you have used broadband for a time, it becomes hard to imagine doing without it - I mean, who would go back to dial up now? Anybody out there? I think that makes it not a luxury, so rule that option out. I think it fits then easily into what I would call a utility - a commodity that is best provided as cheaply as possible for widespread adoption and penetration. The nature of networks means that the more people are connected, the more value the network has - Metcalfe's Rule. So, we all have an incentive to get more people on the broadband Internet, which should increase the value of that network for all of us. And a utility approach is the surest, quickest route to that goal. Once we have a ubiquitous, affordable broadband network, just sit back and watch the services and content come on the network to take advantage of it. Remember what happened with e-commerce? eBay? Amazon? But we need the network to be widespread before we can expect the content industry to really take off. Finally, personally, I would never claim broadband access was a right - I wouldn't even put telephone and electricity in that category. Society certainly benefits when they are widely available, but things like clean air, clean water, affordable food, life, liberty, the pursuit of happiness - those are what I call rights. The right to find a way to make a living is a key concept in our society. But broadband access is something that you must pay for based on how much value you place on it. Like cable TV, or even, a telephone. The fact that broadband access is a network service makes it to our collective advantage to have it widely available at a very affordable rate, so as many people as possible will get on the network. Posted on July 22, 2005 at 04:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack UnwireMyCity Community Update: The Desire to UnwireWhile I started posting on this blog a couple of months ago, I only "went public" and made an active effort to publicize this site about 10 days ago. I've enjoyed watching the website statistics roll in - I'm not sure yet how many repeat visitors we've had so far, but we've had nearly 300 unique visitors on the site on any one day over the last 10 days. And I see that we have 94 Registered Users already! That's a good start for a community and I hope all of you readers who like what you see will go ahead and tell one or two more people to check it out, to help the community grow. For my part, I'm committed to adding more and more useful content over time and I have plans underway to organize this content to make it even more useful for you as a tool to UnwireYourCity. More on that in the near term. Poll Results - In keeping with my goal to build a community, these polls are meant to be an informal means of interacting on the site. The previous poll question asked, "Are you considering or have you already installed municipal wireless broadband?" Here were the results: These results confirmed my suspicions that there is considerable interest in deploying wireless networks today - I would have found it curious to get different results! Notice that I posted a new poll/survey today. I'm curious to know what might be keeping you from acting on your desire to unwire. These results will help me to tailor the content of the site to better answer your questions and address your constraints. Please let me know what else you would like to understand about community opinions on wireless issues and I'll post a new poll to survey our community. Thanks for your support and keep coming back! Best Regards, Posted on July 19, 2005 at 03:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack Whoa, hold the bus...BcN?Digital Chosunilbo (English Edition) : Daily News in English About Korea OK, just when you were feeling good about the progress you're making with your municipal network, or the fact that Lafayette was able to beat back Cox Cable and Bell South to get a fiber to the home project on the books, here comes an article from South Korea that makes me wonder just how far back we really are falling. Read this article about a Broadband convergence Network (BcN) and then imagine this coming over MSNBC about the USA. It has to be years (and years) away for us here in the US, right, because our debate is still about whether the public sector even has a role in broadband rollout? But listen to what they are doing in Korea, where they have blown right past that initial obstructionist argument and are working together on the next generation of broadband, even harnessing the power of competition to drive innovation: BcN, the fusion of communication, broadcasting and the Internet, is a next-generation information network that the government is pushing to complete by 2010. While existing networks could be compared to vehicles or trains that can operate only on roads or tracks, BcN is a new concept of IT environment "convergence" in which highways, rail tracks, and even the sky, sea and rivers could be controlled with one device. The BcN era appears to be just around the corner as four state-chosen companies competitively work on launching test services. Can you hear it? That's a different kind of convergence: the sucking sound of jobs leaving the US together with the sound of a wake up call, otherwise known as an alarm... Posted on July 19, 2005 at 02:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack Muniwireless White PapersEsme Vos continues to do a great job at Muniwireless.com. She has posted two white papers over the past two days and they are both worth a closer look. I recommend you click over there and read them as background on the potential of high-speed broadband for municipalities. I've placed these in the Food for Thought area because they offer a more general review of where we are today, but they take two different perspectives. Broadband Strategy for Municipalities: a white paper by Mike Nicosia Archives takes advantage of Mike's perspective as VP of Business Development at Gigahertz. Mike does a good job outlining current broadband technologies and demonstrating how most fall short of providing what will be needed in the near term. He then describes a combination of technologies that cities will need to fulfill the promise of what he sees as the coming age of Ultra High Broadband (UHB) networks. Going forward five years to the end of the decade and looking back, Civitium founder Greg Richardson outlines in Greg Richardson on the future of broadband and decentralization how events may well unfold to take us into a vision of decentralization discussed at the recent Supernova conference in San Francisco. (See Pundits and Blogs elsewhere on this site for a discussion of Supernova.) Greg and the folks at Supernova hit the nail on the head when they highlight decentralization as the overwhelming trend that will wash over and influence all of the issues that we discuss on these sites. What they call decentralization I have dubbed structural change. See the UnwireMyCity whitepaper, On Structural Change, where I conclude: But the nature of this change, unlike change in the past, is to empower the edges – the individuals in the marketplace are gaining the power to do more for themselves, whether it is to produce the creative content more efficiently, or to distribute the information product amongst each other, each of the industries above will see its control of the levers of distribution challenged. Like the recording companies who file suit against individuals for theft, these industries will not go quietly into the night. But the power of change is inevitable, because it is not limited to one government and cannot be controlled. It is Endemic, Pervasive, and Unstoppable and it can no longer be viewed as a unique or temporary phenomenon. It is here to stay. What are we to conclude from this new state of permanence I will call structural change? I am suggesting that leaders in the public and private sectors consider this paradigm shift. Adaptation to such structural change must become a core competency or organizations will begin an inevitable decline. Posted on July 13, 2005 at 11:20 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack eWeek Motherlode of Municipal Wireless ArticleseWEEK.com Special Report: Municipal Wi-Fi This is a good grouping of articles on municipal wireless, but unfortunately, some of the articles are a little dated. 23 - count 'em, 23 articles on municipal wireless at this site. Worth a look! Posted on June 18, 2005 at 08:48 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack Affordable Wireless Disrupts MarketsI put together this whitepaper on structural change to organize my thoughts on the level of change we are seeing based on the ever-expanding Internet. Affordable metro-scale wireless broadband just speeds up the transition to a fully digital economy, with all the changes that implies. Blogger Steve Hannaford's thoughtful blog Oligopoly Watch catalogues the steady march to consolidation within industry after industry, as companies gobble up each other and soon the market is an oligopoly, with only a few large competitors. In one particular blog, Wireless broadband disrupts the grid oligopolies, Hannaford comments on a Wall Street Journal article ("Internet and Phone Companies Plot Wireless Broadband Push", 1/20/05 - subscription required) that highlights how Telecom oligopoly companies are being threatened by affordable wireless broadband technologies. Posted on May 25, 2005 at 08:07 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack Wireless Broadband ResourcesThe Nature of Networks is to organize complexity. In fact, networks are the dominant organizational structure in nature - think of the human brain, as well as cellular mechanics, as examples. Networks connect nodes with links, providing the most resillient, effective and flexible structure to organize multiple parts to create a larger whole. In society, we have social networks. In nature, bees and ants are good examples of insects that organize with a network topology. Consider cities as nodes and think of all the connecting links that we rely on: railroads, airplane routes, roads and highways, telecommunications networks, the Internet, the electricity grid. This is the context I invite you to consider as you evaluate a wireless network for your city - by connecting your citizens with a metropolitan network, it can be viewed as a Wireless Local Area Network (WLAN) for the city, when thinking in the context of the Internet and about the larger picture of a network of networks. In the Books section of this website, the excellent book Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means Mr. Barabasi explains far more eloquently than I can how this all makes sense. Where I think it really starts to get interesting for our community of wireless network planners and other curious types is when we consider what the impact will be of first connecting all of our citizens in our own Wireless Metropolitan Area Networks, and then connecting our cities over the Internet to create a new network to parallel and complement the Internet. Read these whitepapers and reports to dive deeper into the nature of networks from a municipal perspective. Intel Wireless Broadband Whitepaper 2004 INPUT Wireless Internet Expands Broadband Price Waterhouse Coopers Broadband Future Unstrung article: A Wireless Taxonomy Posted on May 19, 2005 at 11:28 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack |
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