I Can See CLEARly Now - Part I

Still, after all its many well-advertised growth stages, Clearwire remains more about potential than actual accomplishment. But few can argue with that potential, certainly not me. And that's what gets me excited - with Clearwire, we have a well-funded disruptive force that has - so far - very deftly maneuvered around the weaknesses of the entrenched incumbents. It's like McCaw plays corporate jujutsu, playing his opponents' strengths and energies against them, rather than countering them directly, and in so doing, turning those very strengths into weaknesses - very deft indeed.

It's not unlike the excitement we feel about Google or Apple, two companies that stand out as willing to take bold moves to force change to happen according to their own visions. The very act of being bold and being first confers an advantage, when the rest of the competition has been lulled into inaction, playing it safe to protect their lead. So, the potential for significant change becomes all the more real, all the more exciting when big players and innovators start to draw together, as happened this past week with the announcement of this string of companies working together - Clearwire, Sprint, Intel Capital, Google, Comcast, Time Warner Cable, and Bright House Networks. It's not unlike what happened when Steve Jobs convinced the recording industry to play along and the iTunes/iPod revolution was launched, transforming music as we know it.

Like many of us, McCaw knows that the current broadband situation needs to change if we are to move forward and take advantage of the promise of technology - the difference is that McCaw not only has the vision, but also the ability to take action on that vision, aligning market forces to drive the needed change over the opposition of those who prefer the status quo. Where we have managed only to nip around the edges so far and innovate within our smaller spheres of influence, McCaw acts in a far larger sphere, indeed, the largest sphere of influence, actually bringing different industries together to drive the change that he envisions.

The big questions in our little niche industry of metropolitan broadband are "What are the odds of success for a nationwide WiMAX network? and what will be the consequences of a nationwide WiMAX network? and how will this vision impact our vision and plans?"

For my own analysis, I'm drawn again to history, to what we saw with the extension of transportation networks...from the early days of the Roman Empire, the technology of the roads they built were the foundation of connecting the disparate pieces of their own network of territories. When our forefathers realized what they had with this sprawling new nation, only gradually made clear as explorers brought back news from the west, the keys to pioneering the vast landscape were the networks they built, from the early canals in the east, largely made obsolete by the drive to build the railroad network later in the 19th Century. Midway through the 20th Century, Pres. Eisenhower promoted the construction of a national interstate highway system to connect the states, ostensibly for national defense reasons, much like the roads that connected the Roman Empire.

The introduction of air travel at the start of the 20th Century may have freed us from the limits of gravity and collapsed the notion of distance and time as an essential element of travel - and that proved over time to be game-changing - but innovations in air transportation did not eliminate the need for ground transportation. To the contrary, they only expanded the universe of options for moving goods and people across both long and short distances and increased travel put more pressure on the ground infrastructure over time.

We still don't have the personal hovercraft or helicopters I daydreamed about in my youth, as I paged through my dad's Popular Science magazines in the 1960s, because they proved to be impractical options in the face of more economic and reliable ground transportation options. At some point, vision meets reality and accommodations are made - the Possible must always yield in time to the Practical.

And what did we see as air travel unfolded in the 20th Century? A variety of technological innovations steadily improved the tools of air transport, and the infrastructure adapted to accommodate the new technologies. Airports connect with highway and rail transport networks to move people and goods. Rental car agencies, shuttle services and taxi cab lines provide ground transportation options once travelers disembark from their airplanes. And different types of air transport co-exist for different purposes, in an ecosystem that accommodates the needs of the marketplace (see The 747 and the Helicopter). It will be this way with broadband as the technology progresses and the infrastructure is built to adapt to market needs and technology options.

The conclusion I make from this little diversion through ground and air transportation history is that future networks tend to build on past networks, occasionally replacing them entirely over time (taken a trip on a canal lately?), but more often, improving on them with new technology and gradually making them obsolete and less valued, or giving them new value as a secondary solution, depending on the differential between the old and new solutions. Rail travel still thrives in Europe, and along the dense corridors of the NE US, and in dense cities where mass transit makes sense, but it has been almost wiped out in many parts of the US by our love of the automobile. My guess is rail may be on the upswing in the coming years, as some of the allure of personal freedom is offset by the high cost of energy, and efficiency becomes more attractive than convenience.

So, one thing we can conclude from the Clearwire vision is that the new national WiMAX network will not wipe out the existing networks - no need for panic or to wait in the hope that WiMAX will solve all your problems - the task to build a national network to match McCaw's vision will be so great, it will take several years for any significant impact to become evident.

But the mere threat of impact is already being incorporated into strategic planning and will provide slow movers the incentive they need to act faster than they otherwise would. This, my friends, is what a Catalyst looks like. It's a kick in the ass for all those who thought they had all the time in the world to bring about change, and told the rest of us just to be patient and we would see all good things come in time. We don't want to wait, and Craig McCaw knows that more than most.

My conclusions and impact analysis in the next post - sorry - this is taking too long!