Top 10 Wireless Predictions

MNIQ:The opening of wholesale wireless markets will be supported by Wi Fi networks, where available...

2. A New Wholesale Carrier Will be Born
Prediction: The 700MHz spectrum auction in the US presents a large opportunity for the emergence of a new wholesale carrier (i.e., no retail operations or direct customer) that focuses on being the most cost-effective player while avoiding the retail game. The wholesale carrier model will be driven by companies such as Google and will operate at a lower cost per minute, leverage technologies such as software-defined radios to support multiple standards and utilize offload techniques such as WiFi/femtocells that reduce spectrum requirements. This will also gain traction from MVNOs that want to move away from relationships with traditional carriers. Carriers have always had both retail and wholesale sides, and that duality has never allowed the MVNOs sufficient margin on which to thrive. The debate will consist of how much control Google and other potential bidders will want in the end.

MNIQ: Already, T-Mobile is advertising dual use cellular phones with Wi Fi capability. Look for more device and handset vendors to add Wi Fi as an amenity to differentiate their products. And where these devices can run on Wi Fi metropolitan networks, they will be able to carry more data-rich advertising.

3. Device Proliferation: Open Access as an Emerging Business Model
Prediction: Open access and strong competition in the chipset industry will push device and handset vendors to bypass carriers and build closer ties with the end user. Given the diversity and increased data usage of devices, we will see a great effect on open access rules and how subsidies are determined -- including the use of advertising options, certification and even security models. For instance, the move from traditional cellular, where there is a somewhat closed system with high security, creates a need for security on the fly with devices that just "appear." All told, the open access model is an opportunity to provide more differentiated services, but the downside is the elimination of subsidies by carriers for devices. This will be supplanted by advertising support subsidies, and customers will therefore have to trade carrier contracts in exchange for dealing with advertising in order to receive low-cost or free phones.

MNIQ: Metropolitan broadband networks will also reflect this new media-driven trend, where P2P business models target specific audiences for custom content delivery.

6. P2P -- From Theft Model to Business Model
Prediction: P2P becomes mainstream as a technology. Long used for pirating files, US distributors follow the UK's lead (e.g., BBC, Channel 4, Sky) and begin to utilize next-generation, secure and DRM-protected P2P for content distribution. Media delivered via IP/Internet/broadband will completely blow apart the "walled garden" relationships created over the years. In addition, there will be major impact on services such as Slingbox/Echostar. Major studios and broadcasters will increase the rollout of over-the-top services (a la NBC Direct, Hulu), following fast on the heels of what BBC and others have already done. As "over-the-top" media takes hold for legitimate services, and the best of download services are using P2P, ISPs move from blocking and tackling (traffic shaping, etc.) to building strategic relationships with providers and media distributors. Again, the consumer wins!

MNIQ: In cities that have metropolitan networks, mobile carriers will become additional anchor tenants, using the citywide networks to augment their other backhaul options.

8. Backhaul Makes a Haul -- A Move From Wireline to Wireless
Prediction: As the carriers roll out 3G infrastructure and continue to introduce bandwidth-intensive data service offerings, the backhaul portion of their networks must be optimized and/or upgraded to ensure that the service quality is not compromised. Most backhaul is comprised of leased TDM facilities provided by the fixed line carrier. As a result, backhaul will represent a significant operational expense, in many cases totaling as much as 30 percent of a carrier's annual network operating expense budget. Carriers cannot continue to scale their backhaul using leased TDM facilities when data traffic is growing exponentially and will begin to explore other options for backhaul including fixed wireless, HFC, Carrier Ethernet, DSL, and fiber. In addition, the high cost of real estate to mount antennas and high costs per megabit will impact microwave deployments in North America. One trend that will help reduce microwave cost significantly is a move away from point-to-point architectures toward point-to-multipoint designs.