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Christmas Letter VII - Mad Scientists Run Amock

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By the end of November, I was starting to get some clarity on this concept of Alternate Broadband. We're mad scientists, in a sense, mucking about with new technology, new business models, new concepts in community. It's been a good year for learning more about what alternatives are available to the conventional approach of cable and DSL at the wall and cellular data cards and phones through the air. At times, it helps to take a break from experimenting and document how far we've come and what we've learned. That's what I'm doing here on this site.

It's true, nobody said it would be easy (and it hasn't been) - in fact, that's a gross understatement. Most continue to say this field is a crock, just look at all the negative press in the mainstream this year. But it's also true that nobody can argue that we haven't learned a lot by trying and failing and in many cases, succeeding. I think that's the storyline that starts to emerge as I look over the past year and contemplate next year.

Trial and Error will take us a long way in the upcoming year, and the nature of experimentation means that there's always a killer app -a solution lurking in the shadows, waiting to be discovered. The rational Scientific Method builds on past failures to create a body of knowledge that moves civilization forward. That's what we're doing here, experimenting... it just looks rather ugly close up. And sometimes, things blow up.

1. For Alternate Broadband to succeed and thrive, we'll need creative solutions to at least these three issues (deals that lack a solution to any one of these three issues have a high fatality index - some may make it, but most will not):
a. Government Interaction
b. Incumbent Buy-In
c. Sustainable Business Model
2. Technology Change is moving faster than Cultural Adaptation.
3. Opportunity abounds, even as risk remains high.
a. Infrastructure Components
b. Service Providers
c. Data Devices
4. We need less hype, more reality. Alternate Broadband, from Wi Fi Mesh to WiMAX to BPL, has been neither as good as described, nor as bad as feared.
5. Four Different Story Lines are emerging, use these to connect with others when discussing Alternate Broadband
a. The Real Estate Development Model - anchor tenants lower risk in a development, pre-selling helps too.
b. The Radio/TV Broadcast Model - commercial advertising has the potential to pay for a lot of free content and services
c. The Utility Model - from electricity to gas to water, utilities provide services to entire populations over a single infrastructure, generally at commodity rates
d. The Railroad/Highway Model - my personal favorite, this story line describes two shifts: from closed to open and from service-orientation to infrastructure-orientation.
6. Four Alternate Broadband Business Models hold particular promise; combine for more benefits.
a. Smaller Ad Hoc Private (and Public) Projects
b. Smaller Municipalities
c. Regional Coordination
d. Open Access
Pearls of Wisdom make up a Broadband Necklace, November 29, 2007

November

In November, we began by finalizing our decisions concerning the written bids in the San Marcos deal, and winnowed the field from nine down to five, then heard oral presentations, ending up with two finalists.

I went out to Los Angeles in November to kick off the Orange County wireless assessment and attend a one-day seminar on wireless broadband put on by the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) and NetLogix.

And not sitting idle, I followed a strong web focus in October (34) with an equal effort in November - 33 posts. Here's an overview of the Best Posts of November. You'll also notice that November is the first full month I made full use of graphic images and YouTube videos. I like the change.

King Kong v. Godzilla - in which we review the upcoming battle between Big IT and Big Telecom.

Speed Matters (So Does Price) - which offers, among other things, a speed test for your broadband connection

Five posts on Southern California Association of Governments Wireless Conference (aka SCAG Wireless) - in which I reveal our plans for Orange County wireless assessment and other interesting tidbits from this one-day seminar (Scroll down to November 8 in the Archives)

Playing Roulette with Your Broadband Future - a cautionary note about putting all one's chips on Red and spinning the roulette wheel - why not get smart and play several games of chance at once? The stakes are too high to do otherwise.

The bottom line for me is as follows: In the Networked Information Age, our broadband information infrastructure has become too vital to be left in the hands of a select few, operating behind closed doors. Broadband has become too vital to place all of our chances for success on a narrow strategy defined and executed by insiders.

When Big Government Thinks Big, Big Things Get Built - in which I suggest that our nation needs broadband infrastructure, and we need a plan to get there (includes a Green Eggs and Ham riff!) ...

Whatever philosophical objections anyone may have to government involvement and leadership in broadband, there are just some things that the government does well. Building Roads is one of them. And in my mind's eye, broadband looks more and more like a road system. Why not? Let's start talking about a Big Government Program for Big Broadband...Why Not? Worked for the Interstate System 50 years ago...

On this same theme, see also the follow-up posts Time to Challenge Some Bad Thinking about the Role of Government and In Assessing Change v. MOTS, Start with Putting Consensus Ahead of Coercion.

I would argue that as we start to talk more openly and often about National Broadband Policy, we'll be forced to adopt a consensus model in order to move forward. It will take time to resolve differences and chart a path that is workable to all stakeholders - how much time will depend on the willingness of stakeholders to be open to others' viewpoints. And it must start by discrediting coercive means that exploit power positions, which are by definition inefficient, as they leave valuable contributers on the sidelines.

Then, we start to look at the diversity within the Public Sector space with Government as a Layer Cake
You're born, you take shit.
You get out in the world, you take more shit.
You climb a little higher, you take less shit.
Till one day you're up in the rarefied atmosphere and you've forgotten what shit even looks like.
Welcome to the layer cake son.
Eddie Temple, top gangster in the 2004 British drug gangster movie, Layer Cake

A Wicked Wind Blows Through the Senate, The Shankill Butchers Ride Tonight - I'll close this review of November with perhaps my favorite post of the month. This post addresses the climate of fear we now see operating in our country, vividly captured in the haunting song by the Decembrists - "The Shankill Butchers Ride Tonight." This post draws comparisons to what Abraham Lincoln saw and commented upon prior to the Civil War...

And then on a lighter note, there's this:

Posted on December 30, 2007 at 09:27 AM

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