Shamalama Ding Dong - Life is a Highway

Thomas Edison knew about the value of Failure in the Pursuit of a Discovery.

I am not discouraged, because every wrong attempt discarded is another step forward.

I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work.

Many of life's failures are men who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up.

Nearly every man who develops an idea works at it up to the point where it looks impossible, and then gets discouraged. Thomas Edison Quotes

It often seems as if, in the eyes of the conservative, serious establishment telecom world, (and the mainstream press), that Alternate Broadband start ups, the whole industry in fact, is worthy of only dismissal and derision. We're like the Delta House - the "Animal House fraternity." You can almost hear them as they scan news articles about EarthLink's withdrawal (and I have, over and over again).

"...those guys can't be serious, they can't hold a candle to our 'carrier grade' quality ..."

"...how can unlicensed wireless ever be taken seriously? You can't rely on that...you need licensed spectrum if you want to have a wireless network that you can count on..."

I have to admit, in many cases, they've been right. But without this experimentation, where would we be? They overlook the value of experimentation. We've been prodding the established world to get busy and to take more risks.

And isn't that always the case when it comes to innovation and startups that disrupt the status quo? They're out there, they screw up and screw up, all the way to getting it right, and then, there's a collective gasp, when the rest of the world realizes that the BIG CHANGE has occurred. Then everyone wonders how they did it.

See Fumbling the Future by Smith and Alexander (my favorite book from business school). It tells the story of how the great Xerox corporation, sitting on a pile of cash as the computer world was undergoing a sea change in the mid-1970s, gathered together scientists in the Palo Alto Research Center (PARC). It tells the story in great detail of how these brilliant guys, unfettered by convention and the need to earn a living, puttered around in their lab, in essence, on a nerd version of a road trip of their very own. They proceeded to invent the first PC and not just that, they invented all the accoutrement of the PC world: the mouse, the GUI interface, even a LAN...and then, faced with destiny, their executives let it all go, because they couldn't recognize the potential of the future that was staring them in the face. But then, it had happened earlier, in an ironic twist of fate, 20 years before, when Xerox was first getting started.

In need of cash, Xerox offered IBM a stake in the company back in the 1950s, but their "experts" dramatically underestimated the potential of xerorgraphy - dry copying . "There will never be a significant market for copies - we estimate the worldwide market at 50,000...no thanks, we'll pass on this investment."

Fast forward twenty years, and it was the establishment geniuses in corporate HQ at Xerox now, who looked at what the scientists had come up with and said words to the effect of: "oh, those toys the boys at PARC came up with, no, there's no serious market for computers in homes - computers are for specific business purposes..."

Folks, we've been here before, over and over.

It took people like Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak at Apple to grasp the potential of the PC and take them to market, people like Bill Gates and Paul Allen at Microsoft to come up with the software to make them work and invent a new industry. These were young kids, granted, very smart young kids, confident in their ability to do great things and dismissive of conventional wisdom. Same with Michael Dell a few years later.

The list goes on and on.

Most of the world is content to follow the existing train tracks laid down by others, pursuing conventional paths that take them where they are meant to go. It's predictable and safe, understandable too. We can't all be Steve Jobs.

A job at one of the large telecom companies offers much, and they provide a valuable service. I think they have their place, but they don't have an exclusive lock on value. Because the telecom companies are operating a railroad, which takes its clients where the telecom company wants to go, they face limits in times of change. As long as they have enough people who are happy with where the tracks take them, and the fares are deemed as a value, then I expect that they will have a business. But change challenges their business model.

The potential of the Internet is more like a highway system than a railroad system. And only when all the connecting roads and streets are finally built out - the Last Mile network - and everyone is out there on the road, will we begin to see the full potential of the Internet. It's still a long way off, but those days are coming.

We believe that the somewhat-spontaneous experiments of the open world of the Alternate Broadband universe are pushing out the envelope as fast or faster than the planned experiments and careful steps of the closed Conventional Broadband world of cable and DSL. And we also believe that there is room for both.

Those large companies need the Alternate Broadband world to go out and take the risks, to experiment and come up with new broadband models. The smart ones among the Conventional Broadband players will watch advances in the Alternate Broadband space and adapt, while the overconfident ones will deny the changes until it is too late.

Change is happening fast, the world is not the same as it was four years ago when I started in this space. What will the railroad operators do when the tracks no longer go where people want to go? What will they do when alternatives, like roads and cars, come along to compete with their railroad monopolies? Some will adapt, but others will go away.

I recommend the great website of this British guy, Martin Geddes, called Telco 2.0, and this article in particular. Telco 2.0: Beyond bundling: the future of broadband. These guys come from the telecom world, and their mission is as much to reform their brethren and make them aware of the need to change their ways. And their Euro-perspective gives this site a great twist and valuable insights.

I think it's undeniable that in the 21st Century, we live in a world of choices, and life is indeed a highway. Once having tasted the freedom of driving a car wherever one pleases, it's hard to go back to the tyranny of railroad timetables, ticket punchers, late trains, and walking five blocks in the rain after getting off the train. The train and the railroad have their place when you know where you're going - they will be there for predictable service delivery, when you need to get to your job fast and efficiently.

But there's no substitute for a road system when you're not sure where you need to go, and when you may need to change directions and explore. For that world, we need an infrastructure that provides us with great flexibility. I may be wrong, but I believe that's the role of the Alternate Broadband world, to help hasten the day when we have the Last Mile Network built out, and everyone looks at broadband computing as naturally as they do the automobile today. Then, we will have arrived.

Until then, Life is a Highway, I want to drive it all night long...