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FEATURED TOPICDigital Transition -The term "Digital Transition" describes the process all organizations must go through in the 21st Century, as they leverage new technologies that provide new options for Applications, Equipment, Processes, and Networks that make them more effective. In contrast, the term "Municipal Wireless" is limiting. It puts the network technology ahead of the application and process changes that drive the business case. ORIENTATION |
« November 2007 | Weblog | January 2008 » December 2007 ArchiveChristmas Letter VIII - Jet Pack/Hovercraft, iPod/iPhone/Prius, or "None of that Nonsense..."When I was a child in the 1960s, reading my dad's Popular Science magazine and the Weekly Reader at school, I used to fantasize about jet packs and hovercraft in some indeterminate future, but always in my lifetime. Usually the hazy future fell somewhere between"1984" and the "21st Century." Beyond 2000 seemed beyond my imagination. I was amazed at a future that was 32 years out in 1969 when I saw Stanley Kubrick's 2001 A Space Odyssey at the movie theater, at the age of 12.
Well, that future is here (and gone), but I've seen no offers for personal jet packs or hover craft - not to mention an American Airlines flight to the moon... Yet that myth persists - I was more than a little amused a few years back when my daughter assured me that we'd all be driving in hover craft in five years, because "Lydia said so," and "it was in our Weekly Reader," or whatever the equivalent is for her generation. Good to see the family tradition carried on... Even as we outgrow In reality, the future tends to look a lot like the recent past - except when you get dramatic jolts from such dreamers, like the Apple iPod
or better yet, the Apple iPhone
and the Toyota Prius...
each of which look somewhat like the recent past, but with remarkable twists, pointing to what lies ahead in the future. Then there are those serious types who dismiss altogether the radical innovation behind Apple's iPod and iPhone and Toyota's Prius, seeing them as either a) silly notions held by those whose heads are in the clouds; or b) as trivial toys with little impact on serious aspects of society. Sensible people know that history moves slowly and the future looks a lot like the past. But these consumer products capture people's imagination, and because they like them, they drive changes in consumer behavior. As I reviewed the month of December and my posts, the prevailing themes were imagining and managing change - how one looks at the future, how one manages change, the weight one gives to such issues, and how one's generational perspective comes into play - all these aspects of change really come into the limelight when you give some deep thought to broadband. And such themes seem appropriate at this point, given that we all grow reflective as New Year's Eve arrives, and look forward with anticipation to new things in the New Year - that's today and tomorrow, BTW, for those without calendars. December Trains on Tracks v. Cars on Highways: Closed v. Open - in which I propose the analogy of railroads and highways as a model for broadband networks... Our history of physical transportation of atoms and molecules in our rail and road networks has lessons to teach us if we will listen. When we look at information transportation of bits and bytes in our telecommunication systems, we should think about how things transpired with transportation systems. When it came to making decisions on transporting physical material, whether in the form of raw commodities, manufactured products in boxes or real-live human beings, those deciding took advantage of multiple options that made the most sense for their priorities - choice was good. Ships and airplanes today complete the system, offering tremendous flexibility for businesses and consumers. We see this choice as a natural, and wouldn't have it any other way. But when it comes to telecommunications, it's as if our brains have been put on hold. Information material in the form of information bits, voice bits, or video bits is still treated as if it must flow over the closed networks of the big telecom provider, on their terms and conditions. (Not to leave Big Cable and Big Football out, in a true, Open System, I don't think that I would have missed watching the Green Bay Packers and the Dallas Cowboys, the way I missed them this week.) The prevailing sentiment and conventional wisdom still assumes that the large closed networks of Big Telecom and Big Wireless, often one and the same - collectively, the "railroads" of today - are the only options that matter. The bottom line for me is this: We have a collective lack of imagination when it comes to broadband, IP applications, and digital content. We're stuck with Old World thinking in a New World. Still, for the most part, those who trumpet Verizon, AT&T, and the rest may be right, at least for now, that is. Alternatives to conventional broadband are still so new and so small as to get little attention. The winds of change are in the air, however, and the potential of Open Networks, like water on a stone, is having an inexorable effect on the Status Quo. Steeped in the Gospel of Open Networks that drives the Internet, Google has set its calculating eye on telecommunications, specifically, .the upcoming FCC 700 MHz spectrum auction in February. Forget the Past and the Future, Here in the Present, Ignorance is Bliss - in which I pondered the inability of most people to imagine a future much different than the present - until they see it, that is. As I wrote this summary, it dawned on me that when municipalities seek to bring in a third-party to operate a network according to Open Access principles, whether the city owns the network or not, they are mimicking the Google strategy that Feld described. Rather than wait on incumbent broadband providers to bring in new infrastructure or business models that better serve all the public, they're brining in the infrastructure themselves and installing the new business models that will bring about robust competition and lower rates. I think it's interesting to note that no matter what happens in February at the auction, the incumbents are not going away. They are classics who have shown an ability to adapt when they have to. Much of the change we discuss on these pages can be seen as efforts by different parties to force change on the incumbents or to simply go around them. But don't count them out, not just yet. They have lots of money, political connections, customers, and technology experience, and I think they will be around and influential for years to come. They just need a 2x4 to the head once in a while and would be well advised to follow both Joni's admonition about appreciating what you have while you still have it, as well as Harold's observation that most don't know the future until it bites them in the ass. Shamalama Ding Dong - Life is a Highway - in which I suggest that the seemingly mindless play of the roadtrip is actually a journey of discovery in disguise The Road Trip is firmly ensconced in the realm of Creativity, where things happen because they're allowed to happen, because you're out there breaking all the rules that normally keep you in line, out there in the world where nobody knows you, where its safer to take risks. Much of it proves pointless, but for some, it's what the situation demands. Over the past four years here in the Alternate Broadband universe (what I call the various worlds of Wi Fi Mesh, WiMAX, BPL, FTTH), it's been like we've been on one long road trip. It's been an ongoing experiment, a journey of discovery, never knowing what's around the next corner, going where the spirit moves you. We've had a destination in mind, but much of the value so far has come from the exploration and the knowledge we've found along the way. For many on the outside, it appears that we've been wasting time and money, we've been engaged in an irresponsible romp that's going nowhere. But on the inside, we see things differently - we've been enjoying a long ride of discovery. We've been trying out new things, seeing what works. When we pause to look back, we realize how far we've come and how much we've learned, and we see real value. And a couple of posts that talk about perspective in the process of change: - Digital Adolescents Stuck in Digital Puberty - in which I describe the transition from Analog to Digital, which is still underway Since the Rise of the Internet a little over 10 years ago, we've been alternating through many different attitudes, but mostly we've been collectively in denial as the Internet matures and grinds away at our institutions. For many, if not most in society, these changes lie under the surface, unrecognized, subliminal. But they affect us all, nevertheless, and we see more and more evidence of change, and the need to adjust, if we just open our eyes. Once you've had this realization, it's hard not to notice the evidence all around. In fact, getting us all to recognize the significant changes associated with transitioning from Analog to Digital, from stand-alone to connected, from fixed to mobile, is the principal goal of this website. Adjusting to change has to be one of the hardest things to do in life, yet we all have to do it as we age, so it's one of the most universal of themes. As societies go, healthy societies adjust well to change, less healthy ones don't. The least healthy societies get stuck and close themselves off from any outside influence in order to stay the same: just think of Cuba and North Korea. Recognizing this state of Digital Puberty that we've entered is not unlike going through the five stages of grief in the Kubler-Ross model , because such significant change involves a death and a rebirth. In the end, allowing yourself to be reborn, to reemerge from the process of change, involves accepting the death of the previous state. Until then, you're stuck. - From Analog to Digital - A Long, Strange Trip - in which I comment on our aged leadership in federal government which stands in contrast to the dramatic changes underway in technology - T-t-t-t-talking 'Bout My Generation - this post ties together the previous memes of digital adolescence and senesence and posits that generational perspective is valid from both sides It's inevitable for those at the beginning of their lives to look forward to the future with anticipation, and for those at the end of their lives to look backward with nostalgia. And where we choose to place our benchmarks has a large role in determining how we perceive the present. When older folks look back and marvel at how far they've come, it's sincere. But it's also dangerous if that nostalgia and love of the past causes them to take their eyes off of the future, wistfully reminiscing about the Good Old Days. And when younger people look forward and pine for the future before they're ready, impatient to have it all now, it's dangerous if they act on their wishes without full awareness of consequences. They risk repeating the mistakes of the past if they neglect the lessons of history and are in too much of a hurry. We need each other. Each generation has something to offer. We need the accumulated wisdom, maturity and caution of the older generation, and the energy, initiative and optimism of youth. We need both conservatives and progressives if we are to move forward as a society. We need the dynamic tension, the push and pull, the arguments that will help us preserve what's worth saving, and leave behind the things that keep us from moving ahead. Processing these thoughts, I come to the inescapable conclusion that we desperately need leadership, at all levels of society, who will face the facts with honesty and courage, who will lead us into the changes we need to make as a society. My focus in my job and on this website is on the broadband infrastructure that will take us to the future we deserve. Too many people look at how far we've come in ten years with broadband internet and mobile telephony. Too few look at how far we have to go to reach our potential. A Public Private Partnership We Can All Do Without - this post captures current events surrounding FISA and telecom immunity, as the Senate had an important debate in mid-December, ultimately punting the issue down the road until January Look Before You Leap - this series of posts tracks the decision-making process a city goes through as it stands on the brink of change, using the framework below
I'll close out this long post on change and the future with a couple of images from a few generations ago, when change and future speculation was primarily focused on that frontier that could never be crossed, that man should one day fly - imagine, man flying like a bird.... There's this famous image from Leonardo Da Vinci
and then here's a couple from Jules Verne - first, on personal flight
and then on flight to the Moon - really stretching out the imagination!
This has been fun - Happy Holidays all! Be sure to drive safely (or not at all) tonight! Posted on December 31, 2007 at 09:22 AM | Comments (1) Christmas Letter VII - Mad Scientists Run Amock
By the end of November, I was starting to get some clarity on this concept of Alternate Broadband. We're mad scientists, in a sense, mucking about with new technology, new business models, new concepts in community. It's been a good year for learning more about what alternatives are available to the conventional approach of cable and DSL at the wall and cellular data cards and phones through the air. At times, it helps to take a break from experimenting and document how far we've come and what we've learned. That's what I'm doing here on this site. It's true, nobody said it would be easy (and it hasn't been) - in fact, that's a gross understatement. Most continue to say this field is a crock, just look at all the negative press in the mainstream this year. But it's also true that nobody can argue that we haven't learned a lot by trying and failing and in many cases, succeeding. I think that's the storyline that starts to emerge as I look over the past year and contemplate next year. Trial and Error will take us a long way in the upcoming year, and the nature of experimentation means that there's always a killer app -a solution lurking in the shadows, waiting to be discovered. The rational Scientific Method builds on past failures to create a body of knowledge that moves civilization forward. That's what we're doing here, experimenting... it just looks rather ugly close up. And sometimes, things blow up. 1. For Alternate Broadband to succeed and thrive, we'll need creative solutions to at least these three issues (deals that lack a solution to any one of these three issues have a high fatality index - some may make it, but most will not): November In November, we began by finalizing our decisions concerning the written bids in the San Marcos deal, and winnowed the field from nine down to five, then heard oral presentations, ending up with two finalists. I went out to Los Angeles in November to kick off the Orange County wireless assessment and attend a one-day seminar on wireless broadband put on by the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) and NetLogix. And not sitting idle, I followed a strong web focus in October (34) with an equal effort in November - 33 posts. Here's an overview of the Best Posts of November. You'll also notice that November is the first full month I made full use of graphic images and YouTube videos. I like the change. King Kong v. Godzilla - in which we review the upcoming battle between Big IT and Big Telecom. Speed Matters (So Does Price) - which offers, among other things, a speed test for your broadband connection Five posts on Southern California Association of Governments Wireless Conference (aka SCAG Wireless) - in which I reveal our plans for Orange County wireless assessment and other interesting tidbits from this one-day seminar (Scroll down to November 8 in the Archives) Playing Roulette with Your Broadband Future - a cautionary note about putting all one's chips on Red and spinning the roulette wheel - why not get smart and play several games of chance at once? The stakes are too high to do otherwise. The bottom line for me is as follows: In the Networked Information Age, our broadband information infrastructure has become too vital to be left in the hands of a select few, operating behind closed doors. Broadband has become too vital to place all of our chances for success on a narrow strategy defined and executed by insiders. When Big Government Thinks Big, Big Things Get Built - in which I suggest that our nation needs broadband infrastructure, and we need a plan to get there (includes a Green Eggs and Ham riff!) ... Whatever philosophical objections anyone may have to government involvement and leadership in broadband, there are just some things that the government does well. Building Roads is one of them. And in my mind's eye, broadband looks more and more like a road system. Why not? Let's start talking about a Big Government Program for Big Broadband...Why Not? Worked for the Interstate System 50 years ago... On this same theme, see also the follow-up posts Time to Challenge Some Bad Thinking about the Role of Government and In Assessing Change v. MOTS, Start with Putting Consensus Ahead of Coercion. I would argue that as we start to talk more openly and often about National Broadband Policy, we'll be forced to adopt a consensus model in order to move forward. It will take time to resolve differences and chart a path that is workable to all stakeholders - how much time will depend on the willingness of stakeholders to be open to others' viewpoints. And it must start by discrediting coercive means that exploit power positions, which are by definition inefficient, as they leave valuable contributers on the sidelines. Then, we start to look at the diversity within the Public Sector space with Government as a Layer Cake A Wicked Wind Blows Through the Senate, The Shankill Butchers Ride Tonight - I'll close this review of November with perhaps my favorite post of the month. This post addresses the climate of fear we now see operating in our country, vividly captured in the haunting song by the Decembrists - "The Shankill Butchers Ride Tonight." This post draws comparisons to what Abraham Lincoln saw and commented upon prior to the Civil War... And then on a lighter note, there's this: Posted on December 30, 2007 at 09:27 AM | Comments (0) Christmas Letter VI - House on Fire
Man, it's been a busy year .... as I write one of the last installments of my MetroNetIQ Christmas Letter, I realize how much ground I've covered on this site and in my business this year, and how far we have to go. Metropolitan Broadband, now Alternate Broadband, is one big, complex issue, one Wicked Problem, if you will. On then, to the final quarter of the year that is almost over, this last week in December, let's start with October...where, among other things, I proposed that our national telecommunications house is on fire in a series of posts Where There's Smoke ... October Yo, I really cranked it up in October, with 34 posts ... October was also the month we began to process the nine written responses to the San Marcos RFP. Nine - oh yeah...that was exciting to get so many responses... And, the month I learned that we had been selected as the finalist for the contract with Orange County Business Council to do the wireless broadband assessment of municipalities and ISDs in the OC... There were several critical posts this month, but given that there were so many, I'll be briefer here than I have been so far... Phoenix MetroNets, Rising from the Ashes - in which I describe our entry into a new phase of metropolitan broadband - "Emergent Customization," pointing a direction beyond Municipal Wireless Rock of Ages v. Water of Life - in which I describe the eternal paradox of change - balancing the need to preserve the past while adapting for the future (see also the follow-up Conservatives and Innovators - Wrestling for the Remote). When it comes to broadband policy and strategy, I don't think we can even begin to talk about these complex issues as a national community without including in the conversation those same government regulators, lawmakers, and large cable and telecom companies who some consider the Root of All Evil. I'm not one of those types, but I do believe in calling things like I see them. We need to start by bringing all this dirty linen out into the open. I'll try to be dispassionate, so bear with me. If you're part of the Reality-based community, you don't say "What Smoke?" or "That's just Smog." You don't deny what your eyes see and what your brain tells you. We must at least acknowledge that we have an underlying problem with our system. Before we can have an Open discussion on our collective broadband future, or even begin to craft solutions and a policy and a strategy that serve all interests, we first have to have Trust. We have to have Truth as the foundation for our discussion and we have to be Inclusive and engage all the parties. We have to be Honest. Pure Play MuniFi Morphing Into Intelligent Communities? - in which I suggest a new more holistic focus for Alternate Broadband Tangled Webs, Wicked Ways - perhaps the best of several posts about telecom immunity and FISA And Now for Something Completely Different - and two more, about OPLAN - in which I describe a new way of looking at telecom from Great Britain, where the model is less the railroad (ATT) and more the highway (Alternate Broadband). The Old Telecom Business Model - a scarcity-based business model, where a vertically integrated professional network operator manages a closed network and charge retail service fees to retail consumers in exchange for providing access to a limited commodity - Internet Access (and in many cases, bundled content and applications). In today's case, broadband bandwidth is but one more service to mete out to a starving consumer class, who should be grateful for the services the telecom provides over its proprietary network in a low-competition business environment. This service is more akin to buying a ticket on a railroad line to go from point A to point B. The New Telecom Business Model - an abundance-based business model, where a neutral network owner (city, pension fund, etc.) manages an open network and charges wholesale service fees to service providers in exchange for providing access to an abundant commodity, local network access on which to run services and applications for resale to retail consumers. In this new case, the provisioning of broadband bandwidth is separated from the retail services, content, and applications. The Open Network brings an abundance of retail service providers and the benefits of bounteous competition, turning bandwidth into a basic commodity and letting consumers pay instead for retail value-added services. This service is more akin to driving a car on a road or highway, to go wherever you damn well please. October was one busy month, but we went down paths that demanded attention. We have to come to grips with where our devotion to conventional broadband is taking us...so, while I still think its a wonderful life, I have a little more bile in my stomach when I contemplate what's going on...
Posted on December 28, 2007 at 11:13 PM | Comments (0) Christmas Letter V - A Broadband Declaration of IndpendenceWhen do we know that we are living in history? It's hard to see the forest when you're down among all the trees, after all. Starting with July 4 last year, I began to see that there are parallels between what we are doing in taking on powerful government and business interests, in offering an alternative approach and in challenging a flawed status quo...not unlike the challenge our forefathers took on 230 years ago... It's a daunting task, taking on the rich, powerful, established status quo. And sometimes I wonder if we are up to it. But then, when I think of it, I don't see another way around it. The second half of 2007 proved to be just as eventful as the first half. - MetroNetIQ finally launched its RFP for City of San Marcos in July to widespread industry interest. Over the next several months, we worked the process, narrowing the list down to two final contenders by December. In web commentary, we also advanced somewhat in the second half of 2007. After attending a Broadband Properties summit in September, I came back thinking and talking more about Alternate Broadband, with a much expanded view of the potential of broadband. I realized I'd been too focused on mobility to the exclusion of capacity, as much as I had acknowledged multiple technologies when I launched this site nearly two years ago to track and explain Metropolitan Broadband, as opposed to Municipal Wireless. I'm ever more convinced that there is too narrow a focus among the different, narrowly-oriented interest groups (wireless mesh, municipal wireless, WiMAX, BPL, and FTTH) who share a common perspective as they offer alternatives to conventional broadband, aka Cable BB and DSL. A name is important, I realize now, in so much as it defines either narrowly or broadly the interest area - how one defines one's industry determines where one spends their energies, what info they track, and who they hang out with. July In looking at this very short list of blogs, I only count three in July...guess I was busy, between dealing with the San Marcos activities and my upcoming 50th birthday, as well as a two-week car trip to Washington DC. I reprinted one of my favorite blogs, A Declaration of Independence for Broadband Connectivity, originally composed on July 4, 2006. And then, there was this treatment of broadband as a utility... Under a utility paradigm, we accept that it is the role of all society, not just its telecom and cable providers, to finance and build the infrastructure necessary to provide broadband service to all consumers at an affordable rate. That approach drove the penetration of electricity and later, telephone service, and such a universal service model brought about dramatic economic development benefits. And by accepting diverse methods and technologies to provide such ubiquitous service, as a society we can harness the power of a portfolio and iterative feedback loops to manage risk and exploit innovations. Broadband at the last mile around the globe has been most successful so far in tightly knit societies with dense populations and where there is strong national government guidance and leadership. An American approach could be, must be different. We're too big a country, and we don't like heavy central control at the federal government level anyway. We do have an independent streak, though, which we should tap into. Extending broadband on such a scale to cover the nation would mirror the extension of early electric and telephone networks, which were seen as utilities to be provided to all citizens and businesses at affordable rates, because they were essential to society. So is broadband. I would urge this debate to be joined far and wide. Where broadband infrastructure is slow to build out, why not try a utility approach? It's worked before. Broadband at the Edge: Now a Public Utility? August I took a much anticipated family vacation in the first half of August, and got re-engaged on my return for the final 10 days of the month. My rate of posting began to pick up a bit - 8 posts, most of which focused on the demise of EarthLink's erstwhile interest in municipal wireless. I tied the spectacle to the Gartner Hype Cycle, feeling deep down that I too was stuck in the Trough of Disillusionment (a truly sucky place to be). I'd especially point out my last post of the month - Electric Utilities and Metropolitan Broadband - a Relatively Untested Opportunity, in Critical Need of Attention. When, oh when, will the electric utilities wake up and embrace Alternate Broadband?? Cities that own an electric utility are in a great position to take advantage of new broadband communications technologies, as are larger electric utilities. They produce significant revenue, they manage a critical distributed infrastructure, and they have a critical task to manage in the event of an outage. September In looking over the September archive, I counted 17 posts, so clearly, there was something to write about. I was also waiting on the submission of the written bids in the San Marcos RFP, due on Sept 27, so I had a little more time on my hands than usual...it helped to bring me some clarity. 1) I began to formulate this meme about broadband as infratructure... Let's Talk More about Broadband Infrastructure, Less about Individual Technologies One aspect of the events of this past week, I hope, will be an opening up of attitudes to a more technology neutral perspective when it comes to broadband communication. With an open mind, I hope we can begin to experiment with different combinations of technologies that provide custom solutions to different communities, and get away from arguments that pit one technology against another, and that seek to promote a one-size-fits-all model for the sake of mass consumption. Over the past few years, discussion on wireless and wired broadband has tended to fall in various camps that support one technology over another, Wi Fi Mesh v. WiMAX, cellular 3G v. Wi Fi Mesh, DSL v. Fiber, Fiber v. WiMAX. The problem with structuring the debate in such dualistic terms is that it starts with a biased argument that proceeds to create camps and promote divergence. In contrast, in the face of such a large challenge as national broadband infrastructure, what we all need is more cooperation and convergence, and more experimentation. For a Change, How about Trying Cooperation and Convergence 2) and I began to talk about an alternative to conventional broadband... It should, and it does. This is where leadership comes in, or rather, where it is absent. Our leaders should be taking the reins and correcting this situation. It's not happening at the federal level. I still hold out hope at the local level. Robert Cringely, writing his column on PBS.com, is less optimistic. This summer he had a good series on broadband infrastructure, and one month ago he presented a rather bleak outlook, concluding Game Over. He concludes that DSL and Cable won't get us there, dismisses cellular as technologically inadequate, and sweeps right by Wi Fi Mesh and WiMAX. That's where we differ. For if we are to ever get back to a leading position in broadband, or at least an adequate position to support a 21st Century economy, we must place some hope on local government innovation. I may share Cringely's lack of faith when it comes to national policy, the FCC, and the large cable and telecom providers, but I still have faith in small-town America to come through for us. There's enough innovation, money, and most importantly, incentive in our nation's smaller towns to craft solutions that can be adapted to the more dense urban areas. I remain optimistic, if only because the alternative is too grim. Broadband Infrastructure has become too important an issue to leave to the "professionals" anymore. It's time we had some competing alternatives working out in the hinterlands. It's time we took back some of the control over our broadband communication destinies. And the technology is available now for getting started. How Important is Broadband? Why Should We Care Enough to Change our Current Thinking, Anyway? 3) I summarized my views on EarthLink et al and put that whole issue to bed... 1. The demise of Big City Free Wi Fi was a market correction that was long overdue. 4) I had an AHA moment regarding mobility and capacity after attending the Broadband Properties Summit in Dallas ... My AHA is that it's Not EITHER FTTH OR Wireless Broadband. That's a false choice. It's BOTH FTTH AND Wireless Broadband. FTTH can lead, if the community is ready to make the leap to a 21st Century Future-Proof Broadband Network, if community and economic development are front and center, and if more competitive broadband market rates are needed. Wireless Broadband will be important as well for mobility, and that can come initially with Hot Spots, Hot Zones, or more ubiquitous coverage. Wireless Broadband can lead, if it's mobility that's most crucial, but a fiber loop will be needed for back haul initially, and the network will need to grow into a full FTTH network over time to provide necessary capacity to meet future capacity requirements. I've been moving in this direction for quite some time, even writing an RFP this summer that promoted a converged wired and wireless network, leveraging the best of current broadband technology (see City of San Marcos RFP). But this conference really gave me an opportunity to shine a light on what a converged wire line/wireless broadband network would look like. On the Cutting Edge - Citywide Broadband on Steroids 5) Finally, I began to be oriented on National Broadband Policy in the last two blogs, which crystallize my thinking on where we are in this nation when it comes to broadband ... A Second Opinion is needed to provide policy makers with background facts on how the rising broadband Internet is changing the rules of the telecommunications industry. We need an examination of new digital and radio technologies that challenge the current method of regulating spectrum, for instance. We need a fresh look at what is currently happening out in the laboratories of innovation across the United States. We need to listen more to those who are actively working to make a difference for our broadband future, if on a small scale at present. These innovators are the voices of the future. If we truly desire to compete in the global market, we cannot continue to hold up the industries of the past at the expense of the industries of the future. That path is a recipe for mediocrity and gradual decline, and the preliminary results are already in on that strategy. Let's recognize that fact, leverage our considerable advantages (including both the incumbent strengths and the diversity of innovation) and mobilize to do something about it. Like I've said before, anything interesting starts with a conversation. Way Past Time for a National Broadband Policy and Before you get discouraged, let's just acknowledge that there will be no EASY way out of this broadband infrastructure conundrum - this taxation discussion only serves to highlight that we are indeed in a crisis, and we should acknowledge that. I would argue further that progress outside the US and the steady march of technology already combine to create a figurative GUN TO OUR HEAD, leaving for a minute the issue of tax policy at various levels of government and in various geographies. In the issue of what Broadband means to us as a national government and as a national community, we have a sense of urgency that is there for the taking, if it is as yet unacknowledged by our political leaders. But let's probe further on the problem we face. I would argue that these and other questions regarding broadband infrastructure are characteristic of a phenomenon that social theorists call "Wicked Problems." We have to work together to solve such problems, or else we punt them down the road and they get worse. (See also my recommendation earlier today for a national dialogue that can lead us to a National Broadband Policy here). The concept of "wicked problems" was originally proposed by Horst Rittel (a pioneering theorist of design and planning, and late professor at the University of California, Berkeley) and M. Webber in a seminal treatise for social planning. Rittel expounded on the nature of ill-defined design and planning problems which he termed "wicked" (ie. messy, circular, aggressive) to contrast against the relatively "tame" problems of mathematics, chess, or puzzle solving. Wicked problem - Wikipedia Broadband in America: a "Wicked Game We Play" Ah, clarity ... and the courage it brings, courage that led me to make changes and to take sacred cows to task, because that's what it seems I became more focused on at the end of the year, once I began to go down the path of Alternate Broadband and where it should fit in a National Broadband Policy... Posted on December 28, 2007 at 10:19 PM | Comments (0) Christmas Letter IV - A Road Less Traveled
Well, Christmas Day has come and gone, yet the holiday season lives on. It's still an exhausting day in our household, little sleep with lots of activity to follow. Still, very special day and I feel very appreciative. As usual, I was rather ambitious in undertaking a task. Choosing to start a Christmas Letter in the middle of all the holiday rush by filling in the gaps of time with sporadic posts was a leap, but it seems to be working, so I'll plow on ahead. So, on to May, which was yet another eventful month for MetroNetiQ this year. The key thought as I look over this month and the blog posts is that we are really talking about taking a road less traveled. Those involved in this industry, and those cities that choose to go down this path, find themselves at the proverbial Fork in the Road and make the decision to take the Road Less Traveled. May In May, I sold an old car and bought a new one, all in the space of three days, using a variety of broadband tools, which I blogged about in Making Change Happen with Broadband I & II. It was a big event for me, because I hadn't done such transactions in quite a while and was a little surprised how simple the process proved to be, with all the new broadband applications and websites at hand. On that blog, I cataloged my purchase process, which I believe is near universal in any serious purchase, and which we should keep in mind as we go about making such decisions. 1. Personal Inventory. By May, we realized that we had won the City of Longview deal, but then as I was heading up there to go to the city council meeting for final approval, their political leadership made a last minute decision to postpone the long-planned network until the new city manager was installed - OUCH, that hurt, for me for sure, but also for the internal team inside City of Longview. As it turned out, that was enough to snuff the momentum built up over 18 months in this city. This was a lesson in many ways - I hate these kinds of lessons, but nevertheless, life keeps on doling them out. There clearly was nothing we could have done differently, for Pete's Sake - we won the bid, closed the deal and negotiated a good contract. But this event reminded me that any city is a complex organization, with diffuse leadership in a highly political environment. Many leaders are still very nervous about telecommunications infrastructure at this early stage, many unaware of new possibilities and paradigms, and they do not share the same priorities we see inside this industry. There remain so many ways that a deal can go south, so many competing options for city officials, and so much misinformation and ignorance, which all combine to complicate decision-making and confuse the issues. May, however, was the month we really got down to business in San Marcos, writing a new and different kind of RFP, one that would accommodate the changes we were seeing in the industry. We took several steps to match what we saw unfurling in the industry: I think this is some of the best of the blog postings from May: In contrast to this status quo, imagine a solution that is Small, Simple, Cheap, and Fast. (and keep repeating that mantra). Small, because that keeps costs low and provides lots of choices, allows more focus on niche solutions, and lowers barriers to entry. Simple, because there are fewer moving parts (see above) and that means the solution is more likely to work/less likely to fail. Cheap, because the costs of these new solutions are quite a bit cheaper - going over the air without paying for spectrum rights avoids such massive capital expenditures as trenching and spectrum rights acquisition through auctions. Fast, because its fairly simple to hang up these nodes on light poles or mount them on rooftops. We're now living in a world that is undergoing near constant change, on a rapid basis. When you have such dramatic change so consistently, doesn't it make sense to approach things differently than you have in the past? Doesn't it make sense to experiment with new models and try on new ways of doing things? Doesn't it make sense to take some risks? That's yet one more benefit of using new business models enabled by these new technologies - they allow rapid feedback cycles, which enable rapid improvement cycles. It's just like Open Source Software. Lots of experiments, lots of innovation, lots of improvements. That is what I believe is the bottom line on the need for different approaches to broadband provisioning: A divergence from the status quo is called for, and an opportunity presents itself to model the success of Open Source software development. This is what we will see more and more of in the coming year - more experimentation, more innovation, more change. As consumers, we should open ourselves up to new ways of doing things, exploring what we value and what we can do without. There are multiple lessons to be learned if we will set off on this path. Small, Simple, Cheap, and Fast - OHMMMMMMMM June We put the finishing touches on the San Marcos RFP in June, and I began an extensive pre-sell and communication effort to promote the opportunity to the vendor community. This blog, A Fresh Approach in San Marcos, provides a good overview of where we were at the end of June. For a review of June blogs, see here. Posted on December 25, 2007 at 08:20 PM | Comments (0) Christmas Letter III - Building a House with a Firm Foundation
Well, we did manage to sleep a couple of hours last night. My kids are 11 and 13, so they managed to sleep in to a decent hour this morning, and we had time to light a fire and make some eggnog latte before they got up. It was a very pleasant session of opening presents this year, finishing about 11:00. We've broken in the new ping pong table, Wesley is all over the Wii games he rec'd (my wife, Barbette: "are you kidding, he's being chased by police in a stolen car??!!??"), Blake is snapping pics with her new pink Casio digital camera, and I'm listening to tunes on my new iPod Nano (my first, we're late adopters)...Barbette eschews digital gifts... If we're at all typical, there are a lot of digital gifts being opened this morning across America. Many of those gifts have Wi Fi capability (Wesley's Wii console does). Let's see how the impact of another wave of Wi Fi-equipped handsets impacts this new industry this year... I've got a little time to blog before we sit down to our roast lamb chops and a nice Syrah ... Christmas really is one of my favorite holidays. Back to the Year in Review...where one of the key lessons of April is that in forming a community with the help of technology, we're building a house and need a strong foundation of planning and strategy development. April In April, we finally figured out that the Dubai deal wasn't going to go. But soon after that, in another partnership, MetroNetIQ was down selected for the City of Longview and entered into negotiations. We attended the Texas Association of Government IT Managers (TAGITM) conference in South Padre Island. And we launched the San Marcos project, with project orientation and community mobilization activities. On the website, you can see from the April archive that we had a heavy month of blogging (15) and covered a wide variety of topics. Perhaps my favorite quote comes from a blog titled Chasing the Key Demographic for a Sustainable Future, in which I talked about community formation and sustainable growth. Here are the lessons I pulled from a personal experience of community building... Lesson One: The beginning of a solution is an honest assessment of the problem and a willingness to take action to pursue the solution. Lesson Two: Time spent in crafting the strategy that fits best is not wasted time, but an investment in bettering the odds for success. Lesson Three: Start simple and focus on making important, often simple changes to make a more welcoming environment to generate success and build momentum that will energize your community to take on more change. Lesson Four: Community formation is a conscious activity that requires a deliberate strategy and focus, but once started, community activity is contagious and generates energy. Lesson Five: To attract a targeted demographic, spend time to understand their needs and then create the conditions that will attract or retain them - the underlying infrastructure is a good place to start. Lesson Six: Keep it Simple and focus on opportunities to create synergy and socially reinforcing behavior patterns, and work together as a community. Lesson Seven: To stand out and enjoy sustainable growth in the highly competitive 21st Century, a community needs leadership, initiative, a business plan and strategy, commitment, and mobilization of all the resources in the community. Posted on December 25, 2007 at 04:14 PM | Comments (0) Christmas Letter II - It's a Wonderful LifeWell, it's 10:00 pm on Christmas Eve, I just stepped out to smuggle a Ping Pong table from my neighbor's garage into my backyard (success!), and the family is watching It's a Wonderful Life...that George Bailey just told off that SOB Potter one more time. He really is a creep... I'm resisting making comparisons between Old Man Potter and recalcitrant Incumbents, Bailey Building and Loan and an enterprising community-based WISP ... Back to the Year in Review. March In March the big, big event was that we launched the San Marcos deal. Getting busy on the San Marcos project pushed away much of the business development activities - that's how it works with focus in a small company. But we also continued with the Longview deal ... we went up to present and hit the ball out of the park. As for the blog, there are some good posts in the March archive here, but I think the highlight of my writing for this month is the MuniWireless conference I attended in Dallas in March and the several blogs that provide the details. This particular blog Industry Snapshot - Final Thoughts on MuniWireless Texas 07 provides the best overview... 1. The industry supply chain looks increasingly like a barbell to me, with more growth at the ends than in the middle. We will also get more field data this year, which should prove revealing on how well these networks stand up to the tasks of providing the transport function for critical municipal digital applications - some good, some bad. The good data will be a press agent's dream and will be hawked to encourage more cities to enter, while the bad data will have the dual role of teaching the market what works and what doesn't, but also of providing a damper, slowing things down and driving a lot of the hype out. Thank Goodness. The hype is one thing that is growing tiresome for me, as it raises unrealistic expectations! The bottom line comment? I'm bullish on industry growth and predict stronger than average growth of municipal wireless projects in While some of my predictions and conclusions seem naive in hindsight, I'm glad I called two things early: first, the waning of the Public Private Partnership model, and second, exposing the Hype Cycle early on. [So, on the TV as I write, Donna Reed just welcomed George back, and now the townsfolk are streaming into the Bailey household ... everyone is giving George money ....they all really do love him and his life is worth it after all! Man, I'm a sap for this movie. Don't we all wish deep down that we lived in a community like Bedford Falls?....Frank Capra sure knew what he was doing, is all I can say....finally, the kids are going to bed now and we can get down to business.] Looks like I need to sign off and play Santa Claus...I hope no kids are reading this blog... Merry Christmas to all! Looks like I'll have to finish this letter after Christmas. Posted on December 24, 2007 at 10:31 PM | Comments (0) Christmas Letter I - A Long and Winding RoadI wrote our first family Christmas Letter this week, and let me tell you, it's hard not to fall into the trite, all-good-news, bragging kind of letter that people make fun of. That's just how these letters turn out when you start to write 'em. You tend to want to share the good stuff, and not talk so much about the less-than-good stuff. The surprise for me was how enjoyable the task was - it was helpful for me personally to write a letter like that, to realize what's important to me - so much good news about the kids and family. You realize how good your life is when you write a letter like that. So, I thought I'd try something of the same for you all on this blog, my website extended family. Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year, for my Christian readers! It's been a long and winding road this year, and I'm glad this website and you readers are along for the ride. Happy Holidays for everyone else, whatever your beliefs - this is a time of year to celebrate joy, family, community and being connected, particularly a propos on this website! January What a difference a year makes! Back in January, I was doing a lot of business development, especially exploring new business relationships. I was busy with an ongoing contract to move a medical practice into a new office building, in partnership with Randy Baker at Tuanis Technology here in Austin. Randy is the founder of the Austin Wireless Alliance and has great experience and skills in broadband, both the wired and wireless varieties. Getting to work with Randy was enjoyable. I brought Tuanis in on another potential opportunity in Dubai early this year, one of those deals that looked good at first, but failed to develop. It was interesting to investigate business affairs in that part of the world together with Randy and a Middle East technology consultant from Bahrain. And speaking of good deals, in January I was busy developing a written proposal for the City of Longview, together with Karl Edwards at Excelsio Communications. That was yet another highlight of the year, to get to work with Karl and get to know him better. And I was busy putting a report together for the City of San Marcos - I had a small contract from Nov-Jan, where I interviewed over 50 city leaders to get their impressions on the potential wireless plans of the city government. I had also submitted a bid for a bigger wireless project in San Marcos, waiting in January to hear back on how that was progressing. With regard to the MetroNetIQ blog, it's pretty easy - not much blogging in January - a quick look at the Archives shows only one blog, but it's a good one. See Cities as Complex Ecosystems: Mother Nature Knows Best. In Pulse, Frenay takes a view that nature has far more experience at organizing complexity than does man, as sophisticated as we think we are. It's hard to imagine more complex ecosystems than what we see outside our window. Whether we refer to weather, the interactions of predators and prey, symbiosis between animals and plants, the work of insects (most notably, ants), the tropical rain forest ecology, polar bears/seals/fish/icebergs - pick it, these are all complex systems that have figured out how to get along in balanced, closed ecosystems in harmony, without the help of man and his/her big brains. So, Frenay proposes that man's organizational efforts, while they've come a long way since the first plows moved dirt around in Mesopotamia 20,000 years ago, have a lot to learn from nature's organizational methods. Frenay argues that linear "machine age" thinking has served us well since the dawn of the Industrial Age a short 200 years ago, and that the corporation has accomplished wonders in a short 100 years, but our world systems are flawed because they do not adequately account for externalities like pollution and negative environmental impact. We're now reaching the limits of where we can go as a civilization with those tried and true models. He uses the metaphor of an animal species reaching the limits of its habitat and the consequences that nature imposes. To suspect that man is somehow immune to consequences is naive when you look at what happens to other species that outgrow their habitat's ability to support them. Frenay highlights how we're hitting limits, from the permanent damages man is causing to his island home by pumping waste into the air (CO2), to stripping away forests that take centuries to regenerate for short-term gains, to eliminating species from overconsumption. Connecting the dots is illuminating. Wheww. Nothing like a cold dose of reality. February February saw some important activity for MetroNetIQ. I started down a very interesting trail on broadband policy, for one. See the blog archive here for blog posts in February. There were some good posts in Feb - Broadband Leadership? It Starts at Home So I'm struck by the difference between what we were able to do back in the 60s and 70s, with sheer will power, perseverance, and good old American can-do attitude, compared with what we are not doing today as a nation, as we watch countries like Japan, Korea, Sweden, and France, move ahead with strong national leadership and vison, as they implement a broadband strategy to create a national communications infrastructure that befits the 21st Century. Why is that? How come, I ask myself, broadband doesn't capture the imagination of people today the way that space exploration did back then? Well, for one, we've become pretty used to techological magic in the past 40 years. For another, we lack the leadership we had back then. No leadership focus, no national mobilization. Making Metropolitan Broadband Work Once again, despite my approval of this particular test, I feel that when we compare 3G and Wi Fi Mesh, we engage in comparing apples to oranges - effectively, we try to make a "mobile data network" be a one-size-fits-all utility service. The fact is that Wi Fi Mesh networks are a decent relatively cheap alternative that provides better service over wider areas than Hot Spots or landline connections, adds a mobile access feature not found in either of those alternatives, and is available at a price point far more accessible to far more people than the relatively exclusive data plans of cell phone carriers. Time for Spectrum Reform? Well Past Time, More Like And it's hard to imagine a more cozy relationship between big business and big government than the current spectrum regulation at the FCC. Big Business likes spectrum auctions because it keeps the competition out. When it takes billions of dollars to win a spectrum auction, only the big guys win, and the little guys are left penned into their ghetto of unlicensed bands - free to innovate, but not free to grow large and threaten the established players. And Big Government gets the billions from the auctions to fill the government tills and finance the war in Iraq. Pardon me if I get a little cynical here, but I don't see this situation changing in the near term, even if it makes even more sense than it already does. Corruption favors the powerful and maintains their hold on power and this, folks, can only be described as a corrupt and inefficient system. We won't even go into the current relationship between FCC commissioners and staffers and the industry they "regulate." Penalty for Piling On - Fifteen Yards A political storm is brewing, where passionate social advocates are seeking to make the proposed municipal wireless network, like the US Marines, "be all that it can be." Problem is, their efforts to ensure consumer privacy and add other things, maybe with the best intentions for San Francisco, risk derailing the effort entirely. I wrote a long comment to Greg's essay, captured below. The essence of the comment is that well intentioned though they may be, such efforts by consumer advocates to pile too much onto a municipal wireless effort do indeed pose a serious rsk. These wireless projects need to get up and running more than anything, and they can be improved after the fact. We need lots more networks, and lots more experiments, not perfect networks that cover all the bases politically. Many more networks will give us all experience, with successes to borrow from, and failures to learn from. And that experience, with its successes and its failures, will make all the networks in the future the better for it. What's Municipal Wireless Good For? So, back to What's Muni Wireless Good For ... In addition to agreeing with Richard Martin and Craig Settles on the efficacy of muni wireless projects to kick start a technology and provide good experimental feedback, I listed three things (I'll add a separate blog with more - this will make a good Top Ten List): 1. Muni Wireless provides a stimulus for national debate on broadband. Bottom Line: Muni Wireless has defined a new industry and set the tone for a new debate on broadband in America, where all of our official leadership has gone AWOL. No longer is it "When will the telecoms and cables give us broadband?" Now, we have a trend line of cities taking matters into their own hands and bringing in new broadband infrastructure alternatives. Before Muni Wireless, they just could not do that - it was not an economically feasible option. Muni Wireless has changed the near term prospects for broadband in America, and that's pretty significant for a little underrated technology that everyone overlooked. Finally, I wrote at length on National Broadband Policy in my last two posts of the month - I urge you to read those fully. See both What's Municipal Wireless Good For? The Whole Enchilada and Lead, Follow, or Get out of the Way. The gist of those two posts was that we lack leadership in broadband, but we can get there and Municipal Wireless points the way: The bottom line for these three new benefits of Muni Wireless? The results may be small, but they will be cumulative. A town enjoys a positive impact when its community launches a Muni Wireless project: 1) they gain an opportunity to leverage new wireless applications; 2) they become engaged and mobilized; and 3) they enjoy incremental (and perhaps more dramatic) economic development benefits. And February wasn't a slouch away from the website. While I continued to work on the Dubai deal with Randy and Suleiman, and was short-listed on the Longview deal with Karl, we were down-selected as the finalist in the San Marcos Wireless Project bid (the big one) and negotiated the contract in February. We were thus set on the path to our most interesting project to date. A lot of water has passed under the bridge since then, hard to believe it was only 10 months ago. This is running long, so I'll pick up on March in the next post. Posted on December 24, 2007 at 09:04 PM | Comments (0) Look Before You Leap, Part 5
In previous posts on this topic (See Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4), I've described a changing world that is increasingly networked and tied together and oriented around digital technology. I argued that to make local changes to accommodate and leverage these new opportunities and this changing landscape, we are faced with decisions and analysis along several dimensions, which I mapped on the sliding scale graphic above. I have only to describe a few days in my life to make the example. * "Long distance" has effectively disappeared as a telecommunications term when I can talk to my former executive in Paris over Skype with crystal clear sound, no latency, and at no cost, as I did yesterday morning. We still have to coordinate because of time difference, but that's not going away as long as we live in different spots relative to the sun. For those of us who have already made adapting our lifestyles to use these new tools a habit, life has indeed become quite different than it was before the Internet was available. In essence, there's a freedom of action that comes from using these technologies, which can be looked at as new tools. One of my big challenges is in encouraging others to make these changes so that they keep up with me (I still can't get my old buddy in Rome onto Skype, my wife has resisted getting a digital camera, but that will soon change - come on, Christmas! - and the whole purpose of this site is to encourage change). So while in Part 4 we examined new potential in systems, featuring a move towards Open, Web-based systems, in this analysis, we now turn to Process, which explores how we use systems to accomplish work and meet our goals. I'd suggest there's potential change on at least five dimensions when we look at process: 1. Analog to Digital - how people use technology and tools More after the jump.
3.1. Moving from Analog to Digital - One of the primary changes that we face in the environment today is technology driven. We're transforming into a digital society, and that involves moving from an Analog world to a Digital world. It involves learning a new language, the language our kids are speaking as Digital Natives. (See a post I wrote in April Town to Gown - and all points in between for more on the Digital Immigrants / Digital Natives meme). The Analog world has people moving information manually - processing paper documents by hand - where the Digital world uses technology to streamline processes. The Analog world has people picking up the telephone to convey information, the Digital world amends the process until often the human interaction of transferring information is removed altogether, leaving the humans to do a higher value activity. (See also these recent posts: From Analog to Digital - What a Long Strange Trip, and Digital Adolescents, Stuck in Digital Puberty). 3.2. Moving from Manual to Automatic - The Latin stem for the word "manual" refers to using one's hands. Manual processes involve a human being touching an object. In looking at how we get things done in any organization, it's important to consider that each one of those manual processes is subject to a cost and is prone to human error. Ultimately, we can't change everything over to automatic, but much of what we call progress has involved taking human touches out of processes. We saw it in the move from craft shops to factories, the primary innovation of the 20th century. In this new century, we'll see more and more process reform, because reducing time and costs makes more things possible. This is the nature of improved standards of living. From a city perspective, reducing costs in this way offers the opportunity to manage growth without adding more labor costs to the budget - in essence, keeping taxes low and spending citizen's money more wisely. Full leveraging of the Internet has only just begun, because it's such a new tool and we don't fully understand how we can use it to move away from old ways of doing business. But rest assured, many more efficiencies lie in this direction if we will keep on looking. 3.3. Moving from Fixed to Mobile - This transformation is best imagined by thinking of a plug into a wall socket and a hand-held device. This is moving from a telephone at your desk to a telephone on your hip. This is moving from a radio plugged into the wall to a radio powered by batteries and plugged into your ear. It is the moving from the world of the desk phone, the desktop PC, and the clock radio to the cellphone, the laptop, and the iPod. We started this transition when we put radios in our cars and trucks. We finish this transition when we carry those devices on our persons, wherever we go. Full mobility involves changing our business processes, because we can get everything we need, wherever we are. We no longer have to move around to access information, whether it is out on the Internet, or out in the field. With mobility, we're freed from the constraint of location. This change is bigger than most think, because we're used to having to move our bodies to get what we want. As climate issues gain more attention, look for more people to consider moving information over broadband networks instead of moving bodies in cars, trucks, and airplanes, burning fossil fuels, and polluting the air. (See the 2005 MetroNetIQ White Paper March to Mobility for a fuller discussion on this inevitable trend.) 3.4. Moving from Coercion to Collaboration - In the old days, employees did what they were told and if they didn't, they were fired. That's the essence of coercion, gaining one's way through aggressive threat. Later as bureaucracies ossified and became less effective, employees who would otherwise be fired were overlooked, disciplined in some manner or transferred to another task where they could cause less harm. Otherwise, the same model was in place - top-down coercion by management to force compliance to a set standard of performance. Sure, management tools are available to make the model work better, with limited success: annual performance reviews for feedback, raises in salary or wage (or more likely, withholding of raises), bonuses, training, junkets, and award ceremonies. All these formal mechanisms were devised to oil the cogs in the Coercion Machine and keep it running. We see this model continue in many, if not most businesses and organizations. Old habits die hard, but more and more, we see another model on the rise. In the new collaboration organizational model, workers share responsibility for outcomes and work much closer together. Professionalism is expected equally from managers and those managed. Work practice may be far less formal, but even with all the informality, more is expected. Independence is demanded by employees, who see themselves as better equipped than their bosses to know what needs to be done, since they're right there on the spot, where the action is, so to speak. In a more dynamic economy, jobs come open more often, and good employees recognize that they have more freedom of movement. The good ones are more likely to move on if not treated well, but if they're happy in their job, they'ill stay and become ever more valuable. Training is not so much a perk as a necessary expense, given the increasing complexity that technology brings. Having invested so much in their employees, and likely relying on fewer employees to do more, employers are eager to see that they stay on the job and remain productive. As tasks become more unique, problem-solving skills are more valued. In a complex work environment, it often takes multiple perspectives and skill sets to solve a problem, and this is especially true in smaller organizations, where fewer employees mean everyone wears multiple hats and carries greater responsibility. The only way this model works is if everyone works well together - if they collaborate, which when broken down means "to work together." This aspect of change has a better chance of being embraced if there is a move towards cultural transformation or if there is intense pressure to reduce labor costs. For this, of all the dimensions of change, involves cultural change, which is always slower than one would think. So, the change potential here will depend upon the degree to which the workplace has already changed, and the degree to which those in management envision a changing workplace and embrace the potential of a more collaborative environment for workers. (See also In Assessing Change v. MOTS, Start with Putting Consensus Ahead of Coercion and Something in Common). 3.5. Moving from Dependent to Independent to Interdependent - In a similar vein, in the old style of management, workers were dependent on information and other necessary resources from their bosses. As information and tools have moved to the desktop, workers have grown more independent, empowered as they are with all the tools they need to do their jobs. But as the work they do has grown more complex, there's a growing need to engage across the organization, and increasingly, with other organizations, in order to fulfill their goals and complete the necessary tasks of the job. In an effort to trim costs and become more efficient, more organizations have recognized the potential of outsourcing, where they break up their typical processes and farm out to external contractors the less critical functions to more efficient firms. As work becomes more complex and as more tools move out to the edge of organizations, as power and information spread throughout the organization, teams are formed to take on tasks. But the teams no longer need to be in one place. Information and communication technology enables dispersed teams to work together as if they were in the same place. The rise of wiki software enables teams to collaborate on information work product over the Internet. But for such interconnectivity to be leveraged to full advantage, workers need to develop skills in working together, and over time, they become more and more interdependent. Only the more advanced firms are moving in the direction of using Wikis, video communication and other tools to enable dispersed teams to function effectively, but this is a growing trend and these tools are increasingly available and affordable. The degree to which they're adopted and integrated into work processes is a sign of both the competitiveness of the organization and its sense of urgency. (See these posts as well: Stick to Your Knitting, Work Within Your Circle of Control and I Know You Are, But What Am I?). Posted on December 22, 2007 at 09:33 AM | Comments (0) Look Before You Leap, Part 4Having given some serious thought to what shapes one's views on change, the fundamental perspectives on change that one starts with (see Look Before You Leap, Part 3), I'd argue that the next category to consider would be the System, how it operates now, and how it could operate if all the new possibilities are considered. In the case of a city government, the "System" in its comprehensive definition would include the infrastructures the city maintains, the assets they employ, the human resources that operate within the system, the services the employees provide each other and their constituents, any outside services used by those city employees, and those citizens and visitors outside city government who interface with the system in some way. To bring some focus to this discussion, however, I'd limit the definition of System in this discussion to the communications infrastructure, assets and services used by city employees. I've identified two parameters within the system that impact the change decision - there could certainly be more, but for this exercise, I've settled on two: whether the system is closed or open, and whether the predominate tool in the system is local (the desktop) or remote (the Web).
2.1. Moving from Closed to Open - One of the most revolutionary paradigm shifts in the technology world is the growing understanding that open systems adapt better than closed systems. First, to define terms. An open system allows great freedom of movement, while a closed system is under the strict control of a single owner or operator. Proponents of open systems cite their greater capacity for innovation and lower costs, while those who prefer closed systems generally cite the ability to maintain quality and generate sufficient profits to provide a financial path for upgrades and sustainability. I think the most ready analogy is the difference between our railroad system (closed) and our highway system (open). Another good analogy is the Microsoft software paradigm, which has MS in firm control of the entire structure (closed) vs. the world of Linux, where code is freely shared among a wide variety of producers and a community is responsible for maintaining quality and continuity (open). Still another analogy, this one closer to home, is the difference between the cellular wireless world, where content is managed in a "Walled Garden" (closed) and the Wi Fi wireless world, where content is as wide open as the Internet (open). Open systems leverage the input of many more eyes and ears and brains. They are quicker to identify mistakes, quicker to innovate and adapt and improve. Open systems also end up being cheaper and more accessible, because their primary motivation is inclusiveness rather than exclusivity. Exclusive approaches tend to create scarcity in order to keep profits high. Inclusive approaches leverage the network effect, which says that the value of the network goes up the more nodes there are on the network (aka Metcalfe's Law). I am typing this blog using Movable Type, a proprietary software (closed) but I'm interfacing with the Internet on a Firefox browser (open), on a Hot Spot in a bookstore (open). The first element of System to consider then is weigh the benefits and costs of a closed system vs an open system, in light of the particular demands that the city has identified. For a more in depth discussion on the spectrum of options between closed and open systems, I recommend this recent post Trains on Tracks v. Cars on Highways: Closed v. Open. 2.2. Moving from PC (Desktop or Laptop) to Web - Since the days when the first desktops were networked locally, we've been moving to a more network-centric approach. Arguably, we're starting to see the PC more closely resemble a telephone as an end node on a communications network. The un-networked PC has far less utility today than one that is hooked to a broadband connection. Two trends have run in parallel over the past decade, which combine to make this discussion open-ended: more powerful PCs and more networked PCs. First, the PC itself has grown more and more powerful in both processing power and storage capacity over the last decade. Microsoft software still holds the dominant position in operating systems, and we're used to a world where software licenses in an organization are assigned "per desktop." Second, the PC has grown ever more connected. It is increasingly rare to see a PC that is not used as an Internet device, more and more using a high speed broadband connection. Such popular commercial destinations as Amazon, eBay, CraigsList; popular media sites like YouTube, popular social networking sites like MySpace, and FaceBook; and valuable search tools like Google and Wikipedia have made the Internet an amazing destination that can only be reached through an access account, preferably one that is broadband, not dial-up. High-value websites are not the only significant change either. In the past five years, advances in Web Services have started to enable more functionality to reside on the Web. Many ISPs and web-based companies make web mail accounts and on-line storage available, which can be accessed from any device by locating a specific URL and account. Web 2.0 is a term that has come to symbolize new, innovative practices that leverage the Web as opposed to the desktop. Google has staked a position in this area to differentiate itself from Microsoft. For a full discussion of this new way of looking at the Web, see the post Web 2.0 Principles and Lessons. The second element of System to consider is how far your organization would embrace a move to leverage what is available over the Web, as opposed to keeping content and software resident on individual desktops and laptops. Using the Web opens up the organization to new potential in collaboration and productivity. For a more in depth discussion, see this post, Three Faces of One Change: Search Engines, Mass Collaboration, and Leaderless Organizations. Posted on December 21, 2007 at 06:26 PM | Comments (0) Look Before You Leap, Part 3Ah, decisions, decisions ... everyone has an opinion. Consider these two scenes from A Bronx Tale, where our hero, Calogero, is on the cusp of a very important decision for a 17-year old boy living in the Bronx in 1960...whether or not to date an attractive "colored" girl...He struggles with the decision, listening to his two mentors - the local Mafia Boss, Joey Orso, seen here... and his Dad, seen here ... In pondering a decision, you can listen to many people and getting advice is a good idea. But in the end, sound decision making based on process and facts is hard to beat. Making a good decision may start in getting sound advice, but it must also include self awareness - understanding how you look at the world. Our hero above has a struggle between following the rules and advice of the neighborhood and the local Mafioso, or those of his home and his Dad. How he decides this important decision that drives the plot of this movie will be driven by how he looks at the world, ultimately. And that, my friends, is where the decision-making process for cities starts - the world view of the decision-makers will influence how they interpret the facts. More at the jump. Decision Points in Making the Leap Perspective Ten Steps For Turning Attitude Into Action: 1. Understand the Power of Attitude According to Harrell, for each of us, our attitudes drive our belief systems. In turn, our beliefs shape how we look at the world. In turn, our perceptions become a means of shaping the reality we live in. In that sense, city leaders on the cusp of making important decisions about broadband are driven by their collective attitude about their future. Perspective, how a city looks at these issues, will drive how they decide on the changes they face.
1.1 Looking Forward or Looking Backward - One of the first choices a city leader has is between a primary orientation around which direction motivates their thinking: conservative or progressive. Either one can be a valid strategy if it is chosen consciously. City leaders can make a perfectly rational choice to focus on preserving what they have, reminiscing about times gone by and looking backward. Preservation of something that makes the city unique can be a valid strategy. Others can focus on looking forward as a strategy. The challenge we all face is that the world at large is moving ahead, and cities are being asked to make a choice, either actively or passively. Denying change and doing nothing, while passive, actually involves making the choice to stay the same. But choosing to look backward, thinking that is the "safer" path, paradoxically is not safe - it actually involves taking the risk of getting left behind and losing relevance. When the game changes and new tools are put down in front of you, you can choose to learn to play the new game, to wait, or to deny the changes you see. Looking forward involves gathering information, growing in awareness of your city, forging consensus around a plan and strategy, and taking some calculated risks to adapt to a changing environment. The first element of Perspective then is whether the decision-makers give more credence to preparing for the future or preserving the status quo. For a more in depth analysis of this particular duality, I recommend this post from Nov 15, In Assessing Change v. MOTS, Start with Putting Consensus Ahead of Coercion. 1.2. Static to Dynamic - There's no doubt about it, we're living in a faster world today than the one we faced a generation ago. If the world is moving faster, we need the tools to adapt. Product life cycles are shorter. Information that is immediately available puts a premium on processing and making decisions. The key element here that confounds leaders is uncertainty about the future. Planning cycles have shrunk from 10 years to 5 years to 1 year. How can you plan for the future with so much change? The answer is to build in flexibility, to make the system and processes agile. That way, whatever the future throws your way, you can react more readily. We can no longer expect with any certainty that the future will be a lot like the past. But the challenge is in determining what is important and what isn't, what will stay the same and what will change. I believe that there are principal aspects of life that remain the same such as the fundamental nature of the world and human behavior. Our options and tools may change, our environment may change, but our principles, for instance, remain steady. The second element of Perspective, I would argue, is whether those making decisions about change believe that the future is truly remarkably different, requiring a different approach, or whether the future will be about like the past, which removes the sense of urgency to take major steps to prepare for change. This post offers more insight into this element of change: When Complexity Overwhelms, Is It Finally Time for a Change? 1.3. Moving from Control Hierarchies to Smart Networks, from Top Down to Bottom Up - I think of three things when I think of this shift from planned organizational hierarchies focused on control to spontaneous smart networks - Networks, Emergence, and Collective Intelligence (see With Broadband Internet, is Traditional Government Becoming Irrelevant?). Networks are the dominant way that nature organizes complexity, whereas hierarchies are an old way of organization that human societies came up with. Networks are flexible and fascinating - it pays huge dividends to get well versed in Network Science - the fastest route I know to get smart on networks is to read this book: Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means. For further discussion on how the shift from an information society to a network society affects us, see Cities as Complex Ecosystems: Mother Nature Knows Best and E Pluribus, Unum: From 300M to 30K to 3141 to 50 to 1. The concept of Emergence digs into how ideas seemingly arise out of nowhere, rather than being passed down from on-high. It's really quite fascinating, and a better understanding of this concept is helpful, because modern communications technology facilitates emergence. As above, I think the most enjoyable way to better understand this concept is to sit down and read the very readable Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software. My recent analogy of Government as Layer Cake opens the door to understanding how local governments can play a more powerful role than the federal government, if they only recognize how empowered they truly are and take the initiative. Finally, the principle of the Wisdom of the Crowds describes how smarter decisions are actually made by larger groups of average, but well informed people than by smaller groups, but much better informed people. In other words, it's the openness and group dynamics that determine the wisdom of what is out there, not the superior intelligence of the group. This concept flies in the face of conventional "wisdom" - there's that word again - that says that Think Tanks are the way to go if you want good decision-making. The bestseller The Wisdom of Crowds should be considered essential reading, IMHO. (see also The Wisdom of Crowds, the Safety of Numbers and Playing Roulette with Your Broadband Future for more discussion.) Nothing complicated here, eh? The third element of Perspective, then, involves a basic belief in how organizations and societies should work - like a machine, with well-ordered roles and lots of control? Or like a jungle, with systems in balance and flexible role playing, but nary a hint of top-down control, other than what the system exerts as a natural consequence of the actors and their actions? Making this leap in perspective is perhaps one of the largest and most difficult of all, but it carries with it a huge change in perspective. Tolerance for chaos and ambiguity goes way up, which is likely to prove very hard to grasp for those in political leadership roles. Posted on December 21, 2007 at 09:52 AM | Comments (0) Look Before You Leap, Part 2In my previous post, I posed an observat | ||||
