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Playing Roulette with Your Broadband Future

My recurring nightmare ...

A busy casino. Lights flashing, slot machines chinking and whirling in the background. A roar goes up from the crowd around the craps table. I stand next to the roulette table, mesmerized by the spinning wheel. It's so pretty. I'm new to Vegas, but my "trusted adviser" knows the ropes and he turns to me.

Trusted Adviser: Here, hand me all your chips.
Me: Wait, what are you going to do with them?
TA: Don't ask so many questions. Who's the expert here? It's ME who's managing your broadband future, right?
You: But I'm not sure.
TA: Look, this is complicated business, right, and I've been in Vegas for years, right? Do I know my way around here, or what? I introduced you to the Casino Manager, didn't I?
Croupier: Round and round she goes, where she stops, nobody knows.
Me: Yeah, you did. You do seem to know everyone, and you sure seem to know your way around here.
TA: You got that right, I sure do. I've been doing this for a quite a while, in fact, I know the people that built this place. I helped design this wheel. When it comes to telecommunications, I wrote the book.
Me: (watching the wheel go around) It's so pretty - amazing.
TA: Look, they're about to spin again - hand me your chips.
Me: What are you going to do with them?
TA: I'm putting them all on Red. Can't lose. Trust me.
Me: But how do you know where to place the bet?
TA: Look, it's complicated. Don't you worry about that, you just have to trust me. You want broadband, don't you?
Me: You bet I do. I love to surf the Internet, and I do like a discount. But I"m not sure of Red. It seems, well, rather risky.
TA: (snorts). What, you want me to put the stack on Lucky Seven? Red is a safer bet. Remember, only I know how to make your broadband dreams come true. Here, hand me your chips, it's time.
Me: Well, OK, if you say so....

The trusted adviser, smiling, takes my stack of chips and places them all on Red. The croupier gives the wheel a good spin. Around and around it goes, where it stops .... I vaguely remember this scene from a not so distant past, but back then the pile of chips were all on Black. Otherwise, the conversation was the same.

How does this scenario turn out? I don't know about you, but for all of our sakes, I sure hope the wheel stops on Red. And I hope we can trust our Trusted Adviser, because it still seems like a gamble to me.

Whatever, who really knows, right? It's complicated. And besides, what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas. And isn't it fun, all those blinking lights? Here, have another cocktail. Don't worry, be happy. Time to place your bets! Hurry up!

When we hand over all of our decision making on broadband infrastructure to a few large companies and a federal government with a long history of cozy corporate relations, we're no better than the visitor to Vegas in my nightmare scenario above.

We're hoping betting that the decisions they make on our behalf will bring us the broadband we need. But if we pause for a moment and reflect on the series of outcomes in the past, we realize that the track record in the recent past has not been all that good - they're coasting on a glorious telecommunications history in the twentieth century that is long gone. In fact, when it comes to current decisions on broadband, they're more or less making it up as they go.

For good background on these issues, check out the website Teletruth, which will give you lots more detailed information than you can swallow at one sitting. Take my advice, swallow this medicine in small doses. These guys are passionate and persistent, and understandably impatient. They've built up a body of evidence that tells a story. They thoroughly unwrap the complex wrapper that obscures the truth about the companies and government relationships that are currently driving our broadband future. While I'm not altogether convinced at how effective they will be outside the circles of power, I respect their attempt to bring facts and truth to the broadband debate.

BROADBAND ROLLOUT FAILURES

As we enter the 21st century, the sparkle of our new fiber-optic future suddenly fades to a dull copper tone - the color of the three-quarters of a century old phone network based on copper wiring that is still in use today.

Our fiber-optic future was supposed to be here by now. Starting in the 1980s and continuing throughout the 1990s, the Bells convinced state and federal regulators that if they changed laws to give them more money, they would use these funds to replace the aging copper network - with a fabulous fiber-optic network and wondrous new applications. In fact, by the year 2000, more than half of American homes were supposed to have been upgraded to a glassy future - a future with very high-speed broadband.

Instead, the Bell companies have been able to keep the money in the form of higher prices for service. We estimate that over $120 billion dollars in excess payments have been collected in the name of Broadband.

We also contend that the downward turn of the Tech sector and thus the current financial recession was caused in a large part because the Bells never fulfilled their obligations, as well as the documented harm to competitors.

Stunningly Bad Regulations by the FCC

The FCC is also seriously to blame for the current situation with the lack of fiber-based broadband in the US. They have consistently created laws to block competition. Most recently, the FCC has created the "Triennial Review" which closes out competitors from using the customer-financed networks and gives private companies, the Bell companies, the exclusive us of fiber-based networks, as well as shutting down 'line-sharing' which allows Internet providers and competitive local phone companies to use even the older copper networks. Teletruth: Broadband and DSL Issues

By all means, read this history and listen to these and other arguments with a healthy dose of skepticism. They may appear to be kooks, or they may even be kooks. But the value of listening to an unconventional viewpoint is that it puts one's assumed reality in perspective. Indeed, WE ALL may be even bigger kooks for taking at face value the information offered us by multi-billion dollar corporations and government regulators: corporate individuals with competing priorities, with strong incentives to shade the truth and government regulators who have consistently given those they regulate everything they wanted, despite a history of broken promises. Trusting the untrustworthy, now how much sense does that make? Just who is getting played here? Indeed, who is more kooky, after all?

The bottom line for me is as follows.

In the Networked Information Age, our broadband information infrastructure has become too vital to be left in the hands of a select few, operating behind closed doors. Broadband has become too vital to place all of our chances for success on a narrow strategy defined and executed by insiders.

This sentiment is especially poignant when one considers that there now exists an alternative when it comes to broadband. We need to challenge our old way of thinking about this subject and factor in some of these new perspectives. I argue that we should be giving strong consideration to implementing a Plan B that doesn't involve trusting either the government or big business. We need a contingency plan that will shield us from the consequences of making the wrong bet because we followed conventional wisdom.

The challenge we face is that the telecom and broadband story is so complex that most people lack the patience to wade through it. The facts are so mind-numbing as to stagger the imagination. It's hard to believe that this situation continues year on year, yet it does.

But the good news is that we have an alternative to the Trusted Adviser scenario above.

Cities and neighborhoods, investors, property developers, business leaders - each can now take matters into their our own hands and craft their own broadband future. The concept of the Wisdom of the Crowds poses the curious finding that many well-informed individuals are consistently better at making decisions than are a small group of really smart people. That concept holds when it comes to building a better broadband tomorrow - why don't we look to more local solutions for more creativity and less risk?

We know that's true when it comes to investing. Experience has taught us that a well-balanced portfolio of smaller investments produces better results at lower risk than does one big investment. We look for a balance of expected return and acceptable risk. We take control and tailor our risk to meet our needs. As much as we would like to be totally safe regarding the future, nobody has a crystal ball. When it comes to investing, there is no such thing as a Trusted Adviser, although many will claim that title. Look closely at the fine print and you'll see that advice comes at a high price, and even after all those high fees, it's not your adviser that takes the risk, you do. You own it, no matter what.

Don't like the idea of putting all your chips on Red and then watching the wheel spin? Want a second opinion? Don't fret, the good news is that now, we can each choose to manage our own chips for ourselves. The beauty of technology is that we've been liberated from a decision-making paradigm that controlled our future. We don't need any large global telecommunications company to build our broadband future for us. That's what the metropolitan broadband movement is all about.

But for non-telecom people to take the steps needed to gain control of their broadband destiny, they will need to get educated. They will need to raise their Network IQs. And they need to build up their self confidence, to show themselves that they can do at least as well or even better than the phone company has done when it comes to broadband. We still need time to let this movement grow and show us their results.

So keep reading this and other resources. And Happy Risk Taking! The good news about learning about risk is that you tend to make smarter bets the more you lose. You make smarter bets, that is, IF you learn from every loss. So start making some small bets in broadband, just to learn. Track how you do, and compare notes with others. Gain some experience, and as you do, you'll also gain confidence.

In the end, becoming aware and taking control of your own destiny is the only way to really live. Playing it "safe" is for wussies, and increasingly, playing it safe has its own risks. Please, avoid being a wussie - take some chances, live life! Remember - Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

And when "safety" turns out to be a chimera, when the opportunity cost of the safe route turns out to bear little to no reward, and when your "Trusted Adviser" is deemed not worthy of your trust, then the "safe route" is even worse, it's for saps. So please, don't be a sap either. Get smart, get experienced, get real, get busy on alternatives to Status Quo Broadband.

Posted on November 11, 2007 at 06:43 AM


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