Pearls of Wisdom make up a Broadband Necklace

2. Technology Change is moving faster than Cultural Adaptation. On the one hand, some technology is entering a mature phase, which means that costs are coming down and acceptance is hitting the mainstream (e.g., desktops, storage, cellular voice). On the other hand, the introduction of innovative new technology continues to occur more rapidly than the mainstream culture is able to adapt, so that we see are pockets of early adopters and large areas of slower adoption. What's more, societal institutions, such as laws and mores, will need to adapt to these changes, in some cases, but in other cases, it is the technology itself that will need to adapt. Either way, such adaptation takes time and it's ugly as it happens. On the one hand, more patience is needed, on the other hand, some parties need a kick in the pants. As much as we want things to move faster, the future will take a while to happen, and that's probably for the best (but once it starts to really take hold, watch out, rapid adoption is likely).

3. Opportunity abounds, even as risk remains high. There are ever more opportunities to accommodate these changes, and there is another Google lurking in the wings - some companies will solve these riddles. The challenge for investors is in discerning which particular idea has legs. Areas to watch include:
a. Infrastructure components - while fiber is fiber, the equipment on either end is where innovation can happen, same goes for radios and end-use devices, there's still more innovation left in this area;
b. Service Providers - Successful innovation in implementing new business models will separate service providers.
c. Data Devices - from Consumer Premise Equipment (CPEs) to handheld devices, to equipment that leverages local storage, innovation in handling and presenting data to meet business and consumer needs. Think Store and Forward as a possibility, for example, or Location-Based solutions...the list goes on and on.

4. We need less hype, more reality. The market has been too harsh and impatient on the new Alternate Broadband industry, whipsawing it in both directions. While riding the Gartner Hype cycle up, it has raised expectations beyond the capability to deliver. When the slide to the trough happened, it dashed hopes beyond reason. Alternate Broadband, from Wi Fi Mesh to WiMAX to BPL, has been neither as good as described, nor as bad as feared.

5. Four Different Story Lines are emerging, use these to connect with others when discussing Alternate Broadband
a. The Real Estate Development Model - anchor tenants lower risk in a development, pre-selling helps too.
b. The Radio/TV Broadcast Model - commercial advertising has the potential to pay for a lot of free content and services
c. The Utility Model - from electricity to gas to water, utilities provide services to entire populations over a single infrastructure, generally at commodity rates
d. The Railroad/Highway Model - my personal favorite, this story line describes two shifts: from closed to open and from service-orientation to infrastructure-orientation.

6. Four Alternate Broadband Business Models hold particular promise; combining two or more into one project compounds the benefits.
a. Ad Hoc Private (and Public) Projects - from Apartment (MDU) projects to high-end developments to downtown Hot Zones, smaller Alternate Broadband projects can define a good Return on Investment (ROI) and fill a gap in the service coverage of Conventional Broadband.
b. Smaller Municipalities - Smaller (>100 K in population) have sufficiently large government to see savings from a digital migration, but are sufficiently small to execute a network project from start to finish without undue political risk.
c. Regional Coordination - The denser the region, the more it makes sense to begin an early-stage coordination project. The easiest project to kick off is a mapping of Status Quo assets, coverage, and attitudes. Such assessments pack a one-two punch: first, they provide vital preliminary data that helps promote more sound broadband projects; and second, they raise up a common level of knowledge and encourage a spirit of cooperation and joint commitment. A natural follow-on to an initial mapping project is a joint planning effort, and taking it one step further, a pooled purchasing arrangement makes good sense if all the other pieces fall in line.
d. Open Access - in almost all scenarios, open systems have less risk than closed systems. Closed systems make sense in a limited market (regulated monopoly), but Open systems are superior in a competitive market, which favor not only more innovation, but also the inherent aspect of diversity to mitigate risk, for both revenue sources and costs.

As in any new endeavor, but especially in a private-sector competitive market, the smart and the quick end up capturing most of the lessons learned sooner and are thus able to gain early market share advantage. Whether they are then able to sustain their early success and grow into the large and the powerful before they get swallowed up by the bigger fish is one thing that makes these new markets so exciting.