Amid the Hype Crash, Hope Floats

But before moving on, let's all first offer up our respect to the efforts of the many brave souls over the past four years who managed to raise awareness and give us all a vision of a world that could be, a different way of looking at how a society can communicate when using new technologies and new approaches.

Let's start with EarthLink and those large cities who had the courage to offer up a new vision, and take the political risk to promote change. And then let's roll up our sleeves and draw lessons from our failed first attempts, all the better to extract success from early failure, as so many others have done with other technologies in the past. For every Microsoft, there is a Netscape, for every Dell a DEC, Compaq and Gateway.

Now that we have that out of the way, (and let's hope we do, soon), I suggest that all those who still care about - a) compelling new municipal applications that bring new government efficiencies and enhanced levels of public service and public safety; b) enhanced regional competitiveness; and c) a more robust market of competitive alternatives to the current DSL, Cable, and Cellular privately offered broadband options - pause and take a deep breath.

It's time to let go of something that we never really did have (i.e., an opportunity to get something for nothing), and then look again more soberly at what we do have. Reality may suck, but hey, at least it's real and it will be here tomorrow - funny how reality has a knack of being dependable that way. And the situation is not half bad, when you put things in perspective, given the advances in technology and the raised levels of public awareness that we all enjoy, compared to just a few years ago. We're all smarter, a bit wiser, and better equipped to take control of our individual and collective destinies when it comes to broadband.

So, back to the Hype Cycle analysis from yesterday's blog.

2. "Peak of Inflated Expectations"
In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.

It was never a smooth ride up to the top of the peak, after all.

As you no doubt recall, throughout the fall of 2004 and into 2005, initiatives at the state level tried to bar cities from owning or operating such networks. Those threatened by these new trends supported state legislation to outlaw public wireless networks, Not sitting idle amid the growing interest among consumer advocates and assertive public officials, incumbent telcos and cable companies got busy in 2004 and 2005 and challenged municipal activist trends that promoted public broadband networks. Many debated the role of the public sector when it came to telecommunications, with some challenging whether public had a role at all.

Amid the debate over the role of the public sector, the challenges inherent in the technology and business model continued, but a combination of lots of investment capital, market opportunism and competitive dynamics drove the industry hype. While early success in campus wireless deployments made sense for Wi Fi Mesh technology, and early stage small city deployments showed much promise, the siren song of larger and larger deployments proved irresistible to equipment vendors, service providers and city leaders, and that's the primary direction the market took, for better or worse. They fed off of each other and the Hype Cycle was off and running.

Private sector service providers like EarthLink, MobilePro, and MetroFi worked with equipment pioneers to outdo their competitors in meeting and exceeding the desires of the pioneer cities and aggressive public officials.

Don't we all just love Monday Morning quarterbacking? It's not hard to see how this happened, certainly, in hindsight. And I don't fault any of them, as a matter of fact. These guys were engaged in pushing out the envelope, and I knew many of the players personally. I saw very few hucksters, although there were a few, no doubt. The industry drew mostly honest, interesting, curious and brave entrepreneurs, from what I could see. It was and still is a very talented group of individuals who toiled to execute on a vision that was not always clear - somewhat cloudy, if you will (sorry, the puns just keep on coming).

Even as I supported those pioneers on both the private and public side who sought to change the world and make a difference, I wrote a lot about the developing industry here on these pages, continuing to suggest alternatives to the conventional wisdom and prevailing sentiment regarding big city deployments and free wireless access. Often it felt a little lonely, as it seemed that my prescription of multiple small projects and experimentation was far less sexy and interesting than the big city projects that got the attention of the Wall Street Journals and the New York Times. I urge you then to go back and browse the many essays and articles on this site. Check out some of the alternative approaches outlined on these pages. I hope it offers some solace to the negative articles you are likely to read over the coming days, because these events are newsworthy.

For a start, here's a slide deck I offered up at a PTI Seminar in September 2005, nearly two years ago, along with the accompanying white paper. I was asked to opine on the "Future of Community Broadband .. Why? How?" While I talked about municipal broadband networks, keep in mind that they may easily come in a different package than the citywide networks that were in vogue back then. A lot can still be accomplished with smaller, more focused networks that come with a sustainable business model, and the projections I made two years ago still hold.

It was a fun time, and I think the ideas from two years ago are especially relevant in light of recent events. I haven't looked at those slides in a while. What's compelling to me is that none of the fundamental dynamics that supported my projections have changed. All that has changed with recent developments is that the Large City Networks Lead model has been severely challenged. I never thought that it made sense to put all one's eggs into one basket. After all, we know that portfolio theory says that to manage risk better, you invest in lots of small risks and then count on a collective success over a broad base of experimentation. We just took a wrong path, IMHO, and now we are correcting.

I think such perspective gathering and a return to fundamentals and reality should offer us all hope for the future, and that's where I hope we begin to focus, on what we can do, rather than putting our energies into lamenting what we have lost, when in fact, we never really had it to begin with. It was a vision of what could be, a chimera. Even if it had continued further, it was never sustainable to expect a company to continue giving free access to cities and citizens. The costs had to be recovered, somehow.

When it comes to the prospects for Municipal Wireless and Metropolitan Broadband, let me offer up a continuing message of hope, because I truly do believe that the best is yet to come, still, despite the current set backs, and those that are sure to follow in days to come. The fundamental dynamics that support alternative wireless broadband approaches are still there. They promise success, amid the rubble, for those that keep an open mind and get down to business. Let's pick out the winners from the losers, make plans, and get back to work. We owe ourselves nothing less.