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FEATURED TOPICDigital Transition -The term "Digital Transition" describes the process all organizations must go through in the 21st Century, as they leverage new technologies that provide new options for Applications, Equipment, Processes, and Networks that make them more effective. In contrast, the term "Municipal Wireless" is limiting. It puts the network technology ahead of the application and process changes that drive the business case. ORIENTATION |
« What's a "Small" Town to Do? Start with Hospitality | Weblog | Changing the Game » Talk, talk, talk ...when will talk REALLY be cheap?Yeahhh!!! iPhone Day has finally arrived! Mark your calendars. Independence (from boring phones) Day has arrived a little early. Or has it? I'm excited as the next consumer about today's events, but I can't help but be reminded of that graph in Clayton Christensen's The Innovator's Dilemma. That business classic describes in a chart how manufacturers of mature products add more and more features to keep the product price (and margins) up, until a disruptive innovator sees an opening to come in with an "inferior" product that does a few things insanely well for a much lower price, then adds quality over time as it gains market share. Instant disruption, and the mature companies disregard the disruptor because they consider it "inferior" ... until its too late. Amid all this hoopla today, we should ask ourselves, is the iPhone the true disruptive product its claiming to be, or is it one of those feature-rich, bloated products meant to keep prices high and give ATT an edge? This has to be a marriage of convenience, where Apple gets a partner to showcase its product launch, because they are and always have been a product company. And ATT gets an exclusive on the best looking date for the high school prom, at least for a little while. ATT will use this event to pull in subscribers, because as a telecom company, its ALL about subscribers and ARPU. So its a little of both, I'd say.There will be a honeymoon, and then...well, we'll see, I guess. Today's launch has certainly gained the attention of competing cell carriers and handset manufacturers, I'd say, but I'm a lonely voice today, daydreaming and waiting for the simple device that will let me make voice calls on a Wi Fi network really cheaply. Is it the Belkin Wi Fi phone for Skype/? With a broadband connection, there's no cheaper voice than Skype. There are more and more of these devices, and watch for the real Dual Use Phone counter punch coming later this year. I think we need more time for this all to play out. Tons of features for lots of money? Or flat rate voice as an IP application on a ubiquitous wireless broadband network? It's a tantalizing question. I'm talking too cheap to meter, that's my vision. I daydream about commoditization. How many more consumers are out there like me? I'm looking at my total cost of ownership with a $100/month ATT plan and a $600 phone, and I'm thinking "that's a lot of dough..." But just like broadband penetration, Wireless VOIP feels like a slow train coming. It's days like today that seem to underscore both how far we've come, and how far we have yet to go when it comes to wireless voice. For all the hoop-la over the offiical debut of the iPhone today (and it is exciting!), there's this lingering feeling that the consumer experience is somehow missing a certain element - a fancy package for a cell phone, sure, but what about wireless data and accessing the Internet? Sure, the image flops around when you move the phone 90 degrees - cool - but what about the limited EDGE network it runs on? So far, that looks like the principal ant at the picnic today. For some good editorializing, be sure to check out Glenn Fleishman's columns on the release of the iPhone at Wi Fi Networking News yesterday (Why the iPhone lacks a Wi Fi Service Plan), later yesterday evening (Steve Jobs Encourages Wi Fi Mooching), and then this morning (Finding Wi Fi for an iPhone, VPN Too). Glenn provides the reader a little more focus from a wireless perspective than you can find at NYT or the technology section of your daily newspaper. Here's some more interesting links: here (Apple's coverage), here (ATT's coverage), and here (includes a NYT You Tube video review). As I watch the news coverage last night and today, it's fun to witness the pop culture aspect of a Steve Jobs event, even for a ... telephone. After the Macintosh, Pixar, and the iPod, we'd be fools not to pay attention to this particular product launch. But I also remember the Lisa and the Netwon - I actually was given a Newton when I did an Apple internship in my final semester at graduate business school in Spring 1994. It was neat, but a pain as well. All I can say is: "Timing is Everything," and "It sucks to be the first one at a party." I hope they got it right this time, and I sure won't be betting against them. An unintended consequence may well be some blowback about the slow network speeds on the ATT EDGE network. Or about other things, like corporate IT compatibility. Still, despite the naysayers and the complaints, I'm predicting the iPhone will be rapidly assimilated by the first wave of early adopters (going out on a limb here, aren't I?) and that there will be more happy consumers than not - but with the Apple product, and not so much with the ATT service. And there's the rub. "They" (wireless cellular carriers) still don't seem to get "it." (cheap voice AND high speed mobile data) "We" (everyone) want more from wireless. We need broadband. And we need mobile. Both. Now. When Mobile Voice, Mobile Data, and Wireless Broadband really do come together, we will all sit up and take notice. And that day is coming sooner than we think. And it may well get a big kick in the pants from today's events. Let's hope so. For one last nugget to chew on, here's yet another reference to VOIP as a killer app on wireless networks, and the threat it poses to wireless cellular carriers...GigaOM Mobile VoIP: Killer App in More Ways than One. Happy iPhone Day! You'll remember where you were today ... Posted on June 29, 2007 at 04:31 PM CommentsPost a comment |
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