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June 2007 Archive

Normal Planning for the Future

What do you do when you're not sure what you should do? Study and plan. In today's world, this alternative at least has the benefit of bringing more information to the table with which to make more informed decisions, hopefully.

There is a growing awareness of the importance of high-speed Internet connections, referred to as broadband. The path often starts when cities recognize a business reason to have a reliable, economical network to link their departments. Sharing complex information mandates a well-planned secure system with flexibility for upgrades that are coming at lightning speed.
Mayor Cities and Towns Must Fill the Broadband Void by Sonja Reece, Mayor Pro-Tem of Normal, Illinois

I first met Mrs. Reece and her husband at W2i's Digital Cities conference in Houston in spring 2006. As Chairman of the Information Technology and Communications Steering Committee of the National League of Cities (NLC), she has an influence far beyond her role on her city council.

Normal, a midwest city of about 50,000 that sits just north of Bloomington and about 130 miles southwest of Chicago, is no doubt like a lot of towns and cities in the US. In this article, Mrs. Reece has documented the prudent and deliberate steps that the city leaders in her city have taken to prepare for the unknown.

In the face of rapid technology change, Normal city leaders focused on what they did know, not what they were unsure of: technology and digital infrastructure, especially of the mobile kind, will be more and more important to citizens and city government. Knowing that, they came together as a community and crafted a plan that will position their city well, no matter which direction the future takes them.

I recommend you check out this article and share it in your community.

Posted on June 30, 2007 at 06:00 AM | Comments (0)

Birds of a Feather

One of the ways to lower risk that we don't think a lot about is to gather together with others who are in a similar situation. "Birds of a Feather, Flock Together" and all that.

You and/or your organization probably participate in some traditional industry associations or groups. As you get more into municipal wireless, I recommend you also take a look at this handy list I came across the other day. It may be that these groups have a place for your organization, or even better, that your org is already a member. I'd bookmark this one and check out the websites. Muni Forum - MUNI Directory - Wireless

Happy Hunting!

Posted on June 29, 2007 at 06:24 PM | Comments (0)

Changing the Game

In my previous post, I talked about VOIP as a killer app, one that I think is like a racehorse coming up on the outside lane to disrupt the lead horse. While all the attention today is on the iPhone, and rightly so, it's a beauty, watch for ATT's competitors to counter their "Apple" advantage with some other type of fruit. One of the best ways to compete against an exclusive is to refocus the market on something else. I suspect one of them will try to change the game in some way, sometime in the near term. One way will be to leverage new types of wireless spectrum that do data transmission better than ATT's Edge, like say, for instance, the 700 MHz spectrum coming available soon in an FCC auction.

To better understand the potential inherent in a new type of wireless wavelength technology, I recommend this guide: Obsidian Wings: The Spectrum Auction for Dummies (and by Dummies).

I think you will find it to be a good primer to help the layman understand wireless spectrum, both from a physical and from a political perspective. Check it out!

Posted on June 29, 2007 at 06:13 PM | Comments (0)

Talk, talk, talk ...when will talk REALLY be cheap?

Yeahhh!!! iPhone Day has finally arrived! Mark your calendars. Independence (from boring phones) Day has arrived a little early. Or has it?

I'm excited as the next consumer about today's events, but I can't help but be reminded of that graph in Clayton Christensen's The Innovator's Dilemma. That business classic describes in a chart how manufacturers of mature products add more and more features to keep the product price (and margins) up, until a disruptive innovator sees an opening to come in with an "inferior" product that does a few things insanely well for a much lower price, then adds quality over time as it gains market share. Instant disruption, and the mature companies disregard the disruptor because they consider it "inferior" ... until its too late.

Amid all this hoopla today, we should ask ourselves, is the iPhone the true disruptive product its claiming to be, or is it one of those feature-rich, bloated products meant to keep prices high and give ATT an edge? This has to be a marriage of convenience, where Apple gets a partner to showcase its product launch, because they are and always have been a product company. And ATT gets an exclusive on the best looking date for the high school prom, at least for a little while. ATT will use this event to pull in subscribers, because as a telecom company, its ALL about subscribers and ARPU. So its a little of both, I'd say.There will be a honeymoon, and then...well, we'll see, I guess.

Today's launch has certainly gained the attention of competing cell carriers and handset manufacturers, I'd say, but I'm a lonely voice today, daydreaming and waiting for the simple device that will let me make voice calls on a Wi Fi network really cheaply. Is it the Belkin Wi Fi phone for Skype/? With a broadband connection, there's no cheaper voice than Skype. There are more and more of these devices, and watch for the real Dual Use Phone counter punch coming later this year.

I think we need more time for this all to play out. Tons of features for lots of money? Or flat rate voice as an IP application on a ubiquitous wireless broadband network? It's a tantalizing question. I'm talking too cheap to meter, that's my vision. I daydream about commoditization. How many more consumers are out there like me? I'm looking at my total cost of ownership with a $100/month ATT plan and a $600 phone, and I'm thinking "that's a lot of dough..."

But just like broadband penetration, Wireless VOIP feels like a slow train coming. It's days like today that seem to underscore both how far we've come, and how far we have yet to go when it comes to wireless voice.

For all the hoop-la over the offiical debut of the iPhone today (and it is exciting!), there's this lingering feeling that the consumer experience is somehow missing a certain element - a fancy package for a cell phone, sure, but what about wireless data and accessing the Internet? Sure, the image flops around when you move the phone 90 degrees - cool - but what about the limited EDGE network it runs on? So far, that looks like the principal ant at the picnic today.

For some good editorializing, be sure to check out Glenn Fleishman's columns on the release of the iPhone at Wi Fi Networking News yesterday (Why the iPhone lacks a Wi Fi Service Plan), later yesterday evening (Steve Jobs Encourages Wi Fi Mooching), and then this morning (Finding Wi Fi for an iPhone, VPN Too). Glenn provides the reader a little more focus from a wireless perspective than you can find at NYT or the technology section of your daily newspaper.

Here's some more interesting links: here (Apple's coverage), here (ATT's coverage), and here (includes a NYT You Tube video review).

As I watch the news coverage last night and today, it's fun to witness the pop culture aspect of a Steve Jobs event, even for a ... telephone. After the Macintosh, Pixar, and the iPod, we'd be fools not to pay attention to this particular product launch. But I also remember the Lisa and the Netwon - I actually was given a Newton when I did an Apple internship in my final semester at graduate business school in Spring 1994. It was neat, but a pain as well. All I can say is: "Timing is Everything," and "It sucks to be the first one at a party." I hope they got it right this time, and I sure won't be betting against them.

An unintended consequence may well be some blowback about the slow network speeds on the ATT EDGE network. Or about other things, like corporate IT compatibility. Still, despite the naysayers and the complaints, I'm predicting the iPhone will be rapidly assimilated by the first wave of early adopters (going out on a limb here, aren't I?) and that there will be more happy consumers than not - but with the Apple product, and not so much with the ATT service.

And there's the rub. "They" (wireless cellular carriers) still don't seem to get "it." (cheap voice AND high speed mobile data) "We" (everyone) want more from wireless. We need broadband. And we need mobile. Both. Now.

When Mobile Voice, Mobile Data, and Wireless Broadband really do come together, we will all sit up and take notice. And that day is coming sooner than we think. And it may well get a big kick in the pants from today's events. Let's hope so.

For one last nugget to chew on, here's yet another reference to VOIP as a killer app on wireless networks, and the threat it poses to wireless cellular carriers...GigaOM Mobile VoIP: Killer App in More Ways than One.

Happy iPhone Day! You'll remember where you were today ...

Posted on June 29, 2007 at 04:31 PM | Comments (0)

What's a "Small" Town to Do? Start with Hospitality

NEWTON, Mass.--When it comes to building the infrastructure that makes public high-speed Internet access possible, companies are keen to take on projects for large cities. However, smaller cities are another story. During the past 18 months, MultiState Associates, a consulting firm for lobbyists, has compiled a database on more than 2,000 communities with populations of 60,000 or more interested in developing municipal broadband or wireless services. The database includes cities in the early stages of public broadband interest, not just those that have put out requests for proposals (RFPs) to companies.

Its data shows that while thousands of towns are interested in developing municipal networks, few vendors are willing to take on small projects. "I think towns are putting out RFPs faster than the industry can respond. I mean, there are several thousand cities pursuing this; there are only so many vendors pursuing smaller cities," Mitch Gorsen, vice president at MultiState Associates, said in an interview. Bringing public Wi-Fi to small-town America

Is this a crisis? I don't think so. First, I'd say its very positive that so many city ofificals have caught on that there is significant potential for them in this new infrastructure. The question will be how they address the market realities and what they do with all that interest. Second, I'd point out that tracking cities of over 60,000 in population, while interesting and no doubt compelling, is still limiting and misses an even bigger picture. There are many more "small" towns of a lesser population, say, from 25-60,000, that have much to expect from these new wireless technologies as well, although they may not appeal so much to the larger vendors. Third, the jury is still out on whether the vendor community will step up to partner under new rules of the road, how they will find a new role, and what those public private partnerships - PPPs - will look like. I think we'll see a variety of PPPs emerge this year as a result of these changes.

Fact is, we are in the very beginnings of this new industry, and though much has been written recently about growing pains, disappointments, and problems in these first deployments, after all, isn't that sort of thing to be expected at this early stage? What will be interesting over the next year is to see how the private and public sector deal with the opportunities and risks they encounter as they move forward.

What's driving all this interest from all these small towns? It's pretty plain to me - broadband has become an essential service - many think it is rapidly becoming a "utility," and I agree. Problem is, that new status has yet to sink in - it's not yet acknowledged as a utility and most approaches to bringing in more broadband so far don't treat it as such. What these myriad city officials recognize is that broadband has not only become a useful tool to make their administration task more effective, but it has also become an attractive service.

When city officials take steps to ensure that their cities have this service available, they're demonstrating hospitality, not unlike a host does when they make sure their guests are comfortable and have what they need during their visit. Hospitality, after all, is a key ingredient that is vital to making a city stand out from the rest of the pack. Hospitality is a great place for cities to start when they think about broadband - towns both big and small, should be asking themselves, "What steps, both big and small, can my city take to use broadband as a tool to make my city/town more welcoming?"

The state of this new industry is a topic under intense discussion these days. Here's a sample of some of the industry press I've run across in the past few days.

In Municipal Wireless a Questionable Business Model? Nope...Been There, Seen That!, industry veteran (and my good friend) Eric DaVersa picks up this hospitality theme in a different way. He notes the similarities in market development between cities bringing in broadband access options and what hotels did a few years back. As you will recall, we saw broadband access brought in by Hospitality Industry pioneers as a premium service, only to have it evolve quickly to an amenity that is offered for "free" in order to make their venues more attractive and competitive. The same progression can be expected in the muniicipal wireless industry, as early adopters seek to cover their capital costs with business models that require payment - initially. But as the technology becomes more affordable (lower costs) and the service becomes more widely adopted, it becomes an expected amenity widely offered to attract visitors. Sound argument, worked for air conditioning back in the early 20th Century in the South.

The recent MuniWireless Conference in New England became a forum for this discussion as well. Andy Oram, an editor at O'Reilly Media, offered a succinct commentary that challenges the direction the municipal wireless industry took over the past two years, and suggests that cities will need to add to their technological strengths if they are to adapt and take advantage of the potential of this trend.

Every city is unique. You cannot bring in a consultant and just expect solutions to fall into place. The geographic and demographic details of each region make all the difference in the world as to what solution to choose. Just to give a feel for the mind-boggling diversity of subtleties a town has to look at, here are a few I've heard of:

* What local, state, and federal rules govern the use of poles
* Where the hills, tall buildings, and other barriers to wireless are
* Who has to buy in to the solution politically
* What areas can be reasonable left off the grid because they're in unpopulated zones and would be expensive to reach
* Usage patterns of the neighborhood population: middle-aged people do more web surfing and teenagers more high-bandwidth downloads of things such as games and videos (see MuniWireless conference: city politicians need to understand the lay of the LAN).

So, we find ourselves at a cross roads, in need of a map. Not sure if this trend is for real? See this article cited in GigaOm - 53% of US Homes have broadband, which confirms the progression of broadband and ties progression of broadband to income.

And we're not done yet. We've learned over the years that any technology trend can be spurred on to mass acceptance by a Killer App, in this case, I predict the Killer App driving adoption of metropolitan broadband will be VOIP telephones being used on citywide wireless networks. Cities that have a Wi Fi cloud will offer their citizens a very attractive option in addition to simple broadband access - residents as well as visitors will be able to significantly reduce their cellular phone bills by using a dual-use cell phone, but switching over to the LAN when under the local wireless cloud. The future, it's coming.

Substantial Market Niche Emerging for Wi-Fi/Cellular Phones

A recent survey of US early adopters by high-tech market researcher, In-Stat, found that almost half of those respondents planning to replace their cell phones want Wi-Fi capability. To meet the growing demand, there is an avalanche of dual-mode phones in the pipeline. By the end of this year, the Wi-Fi Alliance will have certified more than 100 different models of Wi-Fi/cellular phones.

In the years ahead, dual-mode VoIP-capable phone systems will have increasing competition from other technologies, like femtocells for cellular coverage, but widespread Wi-Fi deployment and the variety of Wi-Fi/cellular handsets offers Wi-Fi/Cellular based systems a significant head-start in the market. Other technologies, such as WiMAX and Ultra Wideband, are also poised to enter the handset market, but Wi-Fi fills a unique niche that WiMAX and UWB cannot match.

Recent research by In-Stat found the following:
- Phones supporting voice over Wi-Fi are limited in numbers today but will exceed 100 models by year end.
- VoIP will be big; the number of Wi-Fi/cellular phones shipped incorporating some form of SIP voice support is forecasted to exceed 50 million by 2011.
- Many of the issues with early Wi-Fi/Cellular handsets, such as limited battery life, will be resolved in models released during 2007.

In-Stat e-mail update June 13, 2007

Posted on June 13, 2007 at 10:30 AM | Comments (0)

"SkypeFone" Decision? More Accessible Bandwidth? Pigs Flying?

Oh, what a time to be hanging around the FCC. Will they grasp the opportunity to embrace the future and unbottle the Genie that technologies embody? There is talk in the air, certainly.

In the spotlight: Skype's Libertelli describes an opportunity to mimic the historic Carterphone decision by the FCC that led to the opening up of "ATT's" telecom network in 1968 by permitting 3rd party devices to attach to the network as long as they caused no harm. "What would happen to the wireless cellular world if that were the case?" asks an executive at Skype, a company that knows a thing or two about challenging the status quo in telephony. For those of you not up on Skype, I urge you to check out this Wikipedia link, download the software on your laptop, buy a headset, and try it out yourself. It may well start a change in your own paradigm about telecommunications and new possibilities.

Democratic presidential contender John Edwards has apparently drunk the KoolAid when it comes to alternative uses for the 700 MHz spectrum that will come available when digital TV transitional deadlines come up. John Edwards' letter to the FCC, is highlighted in news articles here, here, and here. Before diving in, though, I recommend the novice check out this primer, 700 MHz Explained in 10 Steps on GigaOm, from 10 weeks ago.

Here's the letter, below.

Dear Chairman Martin:

The upcoming 700 megahertz spectrum auction presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to shape the next generation of American technology.

In recent years, the Internet has grown to touch everything and transform much of what it touches. It's not the answer to everything, but it can powerfully accelerate the best of America. It improves our democracy by making quiet voices loud, improves our economy by making small markets big, and improves opportunity by making unlikely dreams possible.

As you know, the Federal Communications Commission is now preparing to auction the 700 megahertz slice of the spectrum. This "beachfront" band is particularly well suited to wireless broadband because it has wide coverage and can easily pass through walls.

By setting bid and service rules that unleash the potential of smaller new entrants, you can transform information opportunity for people across America -- rural and urban, wealthy and not. As much as half of the spectrum should be set aside for wholesalers who can lease access to smaller start-ups, which has the potential to improve service to rural and underserved areas. Additionally, anyone winning rights to this valuable public resource should be required not to discriminate among data and services and to allow any device to be attached to their service. Finally, bidding should be anonymous to avoid collusion and retaliatory bids.

I urge you to seize this chance to transform the Internet and the future.

Sincerely,

John Edwards

It's a heady combination of events that promises potential for change and dialogue (dare we hope?). Asked about the potential for change just one year ago, I would have said "Pigs will fly before the FCC will lead us to innovation." I'm still skeptical that the FCC will show real leadership in this area.

But look what we have driving the debate: a) upcoming public comment period on a pending spectrum auction of 700 MHz "TV broadcast bands", which many feel may be the last significant chance for a while at putting more spectrum in the hands of more companies; b) an historic presidential election that will foster public debate, hopefully more on the topic of the Internet and the changing paradigms; and c) political turmoil and the chance for a sea change in political leadership, away from a conservative, pro-corporate mindset that has cast a long shadow over administration policy for years.

Here's the Battle of the Titans lining up: against a powerful corporate lobby that argues for a continuance of the status quo we have the seemingly inevitable march of technological change, which every month brings new possibilities to the table. I agree that current fixed and mobile telecommunications companies are very powerful, and I'm not betting against them. But I also acknowledge that technology changes are like the waves of the ocean, battering a sea wall. It takes a very strong dike to hold back those waves, and at some point, you just have a feeling the ocean will prevail.

Want to chime in with your own opniions? Now is the time to be heard. I recommend this website, Tom Evslin's Fractals of Change, for some good ideas on the issues and key information on how to comment.

Posted on June 03, 2007 at 09:03 AM | Comments (0)

Finding a Clear Vision of a "Cloudy" Future

In a blog last week, I highlighted the challenge we all face when we try to imagine a future that is not just an evolution of what we currently have. Without some background in a variety of current technologies and trends, I would ask how one can imagine what one would do were there massive amounts of broadband widely available, not just at one's desktop or on one's laptop, but swimming out in the air, everywhere, like AM or FM radio, able to be accessed from a variety of devices?

I think of such change after reading Om Malik's recent blog at the GigaOm website.

Now what would you do with bandwidth, if you had it is especially noteworthy for its comments on an "Open Thread" - I found this part fascinating and enlightening, as I watched some trends start to emerge. After reading that column, it's easy to imagine what could happen: as high bandwidth applications start to become much more accessible because broadband is everywhere and everyone has access to it, they become more and more popular. So what holds industry back from making this future reality?

One thing is the lack of assurance in these markets - will they really develop? Another thing is the pull of the status quo ... those who would provide this very bandwidth are not altogether sure that it's in their best interest to do so, yet. They have a vested interest in continuing to make money off their current business (see also Mobile VoIP: Killer App in More Ways than One on the same website, which describes the challenges facing the mobile voice industry and details reasons why the major cellular carriers are disinclined to embrace VOIP, or for that matter, broadband data access - it's complicated).

So, if you can get over the hurdles and begin to imagine the possibilities of everywhere cheap broadband, a follow-on question is likely "What will these new markets look like?" I found this short white paper on this subject to be helpful: The Challenges of Measuring Non-Existent Markets. (You'll need to register to access this one - just click the link and it will take you to the Registration page). The white paper lists a variety of steps a company can take to move forward amid such market uncertainty. The bottom line is like a variation on the shampoo bottle - Lather, Rinse, Repeat: Take baby steps. Experiment. Watch what happens. Adjust and retool. Repeat. In other words, look for favorable markets and embrace an iterative strategy with feedback loops.

Back to the subject of AM & FM radio and cultural change, though, not only because I can remember and reminisce about Rock and Roll and how huge the Beatles were, but also because I was taken by how well these issues of cultural change came to light in a segment on NPR's All Things Considered news show yesterday afternoon. The segment was about the 40th Anniversary of the release of the Beatles LP Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Heart's Club Band on June 1 in England and June 2 in the US, where they mentioned the connection between the release of this album and its impact on FM radio and popular music culture.

This radio segment made me think of how clear our vision is in hindsight and the impact of creative artists to stimulate change in our collective concepts of our culture, as well as on technology adoption. As the saying goes, "Hindsight is 20/20," and we're not always clear about what the future holds until some inspired creative types show us. By then the world has changed, as the masses start to "get" a new way of looking at things and they get swept up into the mainstream.

The NPR news article talked about the impact the groundbreaking album, voted #1 All-Time in Rollingstone's 500 Greatest Albums of All Time, had on the music industry and popular culture. It described the popularity of AM radio, but also how its limitations became evident with this pop event. The stock in trade of the AM radio format was playing singles, for instance - that's what pop radio did - it made hits out of singles, which one could then go buy at a record store as 45 RPM records, with an A side and a B side. Popularity of songs was tracked on Billboard magazine's Hot 100 and later, Casey Kasem's American Top 40, which captured the Top 40 on the Top 100 and showcased them. I used to listen to that show in the early 1970s on Saturday mornings. Ah, good times ... sigh ....

The release of this Beatle's album had been eagerly awaited, but when it came out, it created a shock to the popular culture, because there were no singles released. That's what the Beatles did as confident pop stars and creative artists. Their music took on a new format as an art form - it was part of a comprehensive work meant to be listened to as one piece, and it was much more complicated and layered, because the Beatles had decided to stop touring and spend more time in the studio making more complex music. Playing such longer-themed music became the job of FM radio, then an obscure "new" media seeking to get established. There was also the fear among radio stations of being censored by the FCC for some of the drug references in the songs on the album, which were only much later revealed to be mostly in the imagination of listeners.

The music recording industry, in their infinite wisdom, phased out the single format in the late 1980s, for fear that it prevented the sale of albums. For a while, the novelty and improved quality of digital CDs kept the industry going, but they got greedy and lost touch with what consumers wanted (surprise - they DIDN'T want to pay $16.95 for a CD that only had one "hit" song on it). At least that's how I see it. So we see the market working when the music single returned with the help of Apple's iPod and its accompanying website, iTunes. Steve Job in his wisdom has been able to consistently innovate and leverage digital technology, this time with the ubiquity of the PC (or the Mac), making the Internet a new and popular distribution medium for music.

So what comes next with more and more broadband out there? Hard to say, but we can imagine significant changes in our popular culture, and a continuation of this process. Cultural leaders and creative artists push out the boundaries of established "rules of the road," and challenge the status quo. They capture the imagination of the public and create new business models that take advantage of new technologies. And it will be the same with massive availability of broadband - the content will morph to accommodate and take advantage of new capacity. Just watch and have faith that the bandwidth will not go to waste.

Posted on June 02, 2007 at 03:30 PM | Comments (0)