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In Life, and in Muni Wireless, Timing is Everything

Warning - YOU ARE ENTERING A HEAVILY OPINIONATED ZONE. BEWARE OF STRONG OPINIONS EXPRESSED HEREIN.

Here's my first preliminary insight from this conference. When fear paralyzes a city and keeps it from launching, their fear can become a reality as the ship sails without them. If it is true that the perception of risk is keeping many cities from launching a project - that timing is never quite right - there is a corresponding truth: there is a growing risk of an opportunity cost of inaction. I think this attitude is more prevalent to those not in attendance at this conference, by the way. And I should note that I think that of those who are here at this conference, many of them whom I have talked with already have budgets and well-developed plans, so that's a great sign.

Seriously, folks, from what I've seen today, the following situation appears to be developing: the number of interested cities may well be growing faster than the Municipal Wireless Ecosystem of skilled consultants, system integrators, and network operators that will be needed to serve them. That's opinion, not documented by any fact-based research. But I'm not the only one making this observation in the last couple of days, either.

I confess to asking a loaded question of Esme Vos at the end of her speech just now:

"Would you please compare and contrast the risk associated with either jumping in to a project too soon, before you are absolutely ready, and jumping in six months down the road after dotting all the i's and crossing all the t's."

I wasn't surprised when she answered, "No, there are always reasons to delay a project, but there are costs in delay that have to be factored in." Of course, I agree. From my perspective, a conservative project launched TODAY will hasten the progress down the learning curve, provide a cogent learning experience for more people in the city, both staff and citizens, and ensure in the longer-term better decision making on a bigger project.

I think that at this point in the development of this industry, a starter project poses little to no risk, whereas a project postponed results in at least two risks: first, a guaranteed opportunity cost of lost benefit from the delayed project; and second, a potential lost opportunity to partner with one of those busy service providers, who rapidly face a world of too many opportunities and not enough trained staff to pursue them. The cities who launch six months down the road will likely have to sweeten the pot, or collaborate with regional partners to make their deal larger, in order to attract the best and brightest of the service community to their particular project, or pick from a tier of less than top tier service providers.

In time, market harmony will be acheived when new companies get started and employees get trained to capture all this new market demand. But in the meantime, I believe we will see a constrained service provider marketplace, which will require cities to delay their projects, make projects more expensive for cities, or result in extra work for cities as they make their projects larger and more attractive to service provider partners.

And another reason for delay - waiting for WiMAX - doesn't hold water either. I don't think that WiMAX will offer compelling benefits or become a substitute for Wi Fi Mesh, so that path offers no reason to wait either. What we have seen is that the two technologies are likely to be integrated into a combined solution. They will go together.

I'm not saying that cities should jump in with no planning. No, far from it. I believe in a very deliberate approach that includes a broad cross-section of the community and that proceeds incrementally to provide lessons learned along the way. My point is that cities should not wait before launching a project, in order to go that last leg of preparation, from 80% ready to 100% ready. At some point, the preparation you have done should be deemed good enough, the risk of launching is low enough, and the risk of waiting is large enough to make launching a project the prudent path, based on the state of the industry today, as much as on the state of your own preparation. Of course, the lesson is that if you have not started the process of getting ready, time is a'wastin'.

So, as Esme suggested, there is no sound reason to wait from an industry perspective. A technology project that is delayed too long is bypassing an opportunity.

Finally, one little-discussed connection between a wireless project and a fiber (wired) project is that the wireless project is immediate, relatively inexpensive, and it will begin the necessary community mobilization and training that will bring long-term benefits and lower risk for a follow-on fiber optic project.

Posted on March 05, 2007 at 05:00 PM

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