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Grinding the Axes: Three Variables Drive Complexity in Muni Wireless Networks

For the past 18 months, I've been studying the municipal wireless industry and trying on different business development models that might kick start this industry by solving some of the thorny issues that bedevil both the vendors and the cities. While I'm not ready to raise the white flag in surrender, I have to acknowledge that we are unlikely to simplify things to a great degree anytime soon. I will hasten to add that there are still some things we can all do to speed up the deal flow and the learning, but we are quite simply, bounded by unavoidable constraints.

So looking at the state of complexity and risk with regard to municipal networks, I've got good news and bad news. I think the preferred method is to give the good news first, so here goes.

The good news: Collectively, we're getting better and better at this.

As an industry, we know more than we ever have about how to do municipal wireless networks. Industry experience over the past two years - multiple business models, a growing bookshelf of case studies with new lessons learned, aggressive entry by technology vendors, a maturing field of system integrators and service providers, declining technology cost curves, and a few of us ever-more-experienced consultants who continue to learn by doing - all that translates into dramatic improvement in the odds for success and lower risk for those cities who are interested in launching a municipal wireless network (and willing to listen to and act on good advice).

The bad news: No matter what we do, acquiring and running a municpal wireless network will remain a complex process.

This is an industry based on a complex system of variables inside a three dimensional matrix, comprised of three axes: technology, business, and politics. Each of these axes provides a limited amount of wiggle room that will allow cities to drive out complexity and cost and lower risk. That's where MetroNetIQ and a select number of consultants in this new space come in. The good ones will show you how to work the margins to improve your situation regarding technology, business, and political factors that are still within your "Circle of Control."

Technology: Even as the options get better, they also multiply over time, adding complexity to the choices you face. Because its a dynamic scenario, the situation becomes more complex over time. And the fact that we are dealing with radio waves and spectrum means that the laws of physics and government regulation combine to create an incredibly complex scenario loaded up with variables, and to make certain constraints, like network design and environmental management, unavoidable.

Business: Which business model is best? Two years ago, it looked like the Municipally Owned and Operated model. Last year the Public Private Partnership model gained ascendancy, and now I'm hearing that the Municipally Owned, but Privately Operated model has legs. What is the temperature for participation and risk inside your city? How much money do you have access to? This boils down to a political decision after all the business variables are laid out, which leads us to the third axis.

Politics: This topic is a true wild card. Wherever there are human beings and competing interests, politics will be present to complicate matters. In local government, there are politics to deal with in between departments, on the City Council, among the stakeholders in the community, etc., etc., etc. Do you have a strong leader pushing your city into this industry? Or do you have a set of competing barons and political fiefs that add to the complex environment? Whatever your local situation, political issues and risks are best dealt with through anticipation, scenario planning, and political strategy.

All three of these axes must be managed in a Municipal Wireless Project, or the risks mount considerably. For instance, I believe the conflict in San Francisco that I covered in a blog yesterday is the result of an ineffective strategy to manage the political issues and risks. Either that, or it could be that this conflict is just the nature of the beast and there's just no planning around political competitors who would undermine your plans, no matter what you do.

That said, the prudent city will acknowledge the complexity in municipal wireless project, spend ample time contemplating these three axes of project planning and management, devise strategies, and at some point, seek outside help, whether from another city, a vendor, a system integrator, a consultant, or a service provider. In this situation, there is safety in numbers and One truly is the Lonliest Number. The worst thing a city can do, in my opinion, is to jump on the first option presented and move forward; better to go slowly, but surely, step by step, and get input and guidance from experienced hands before taking action.

Posted on November 22, 2006 at 11:18 AM


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