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December 2005 Archive

The sound you hear is the other shoe falling: Cellular Companies signing on to Wi Fi

Nokia gets aggressive on Wi-Fi - vnunet.com According to Jarkko Sairanen, vice president for strategy and planning at Nokia Technology Platforms, Nokia has "the most aggressive LAN roadmap of any manufacturer." The proof is in the pudding: Nokia has confirmed that it will no longer release business phones without Wi-Fi capability.

These plans focus on the handsets using the Series 80 operating system, and a growing number of Series 60 phones. The low cost of Wi-Fi, and the growing installed base of wireless networks in offices, will also drive future demand.

As for other wireless technologies, look for WiMax technology to be integrated as well, but it may take longer as networks will have to be upgraded to deal with the signal. And cellular data speeds will stay lower than for Wi-Fi for the foreseeable future, but Nokia hopes to have 100Mb download speeds by 2010 using enhanced high speed packet access technology.

Add this to the move by Qualcomm to join the Wi Fi Alliance last week, and you can start to connect the dots. When major cellular players like Nokia and Qualcomm get behind Wi Fi, can there still be any doubt that its ready for prime time? The other shoe has fallen, no need to wait any longer - come on in, the water's fine.

Regardless of MAN/LAN debates over Wi-Fi's use, Qualcomm joining the alliance is recognition that handset makers and cellular operators worldwide want unlicensed mobile access (UMA) in their phones, among other uses of Wi-Fi. Qualcomm's participation may make it easier for compatibility and interoperability of standards. Glenn Fleishman in Wi Fi Networking News

Posted on December 15, 2005 at 11:06 PM | Comments (0)

Security Site Collects and Tracks Vulnerabilities

WVE is the source for in-depth information on wireless vulnerabilities. It provides a standardized nomenclature for Vulnerabilities in wireless protocols and products, and the Exploits which take advantage of these vulnerabilities. It is also a database or catalog of these vulnerabilties and exploits.

Here's a good site to bookmark, Wireless VE. I like this site because amid the differing opinions and "facts" on wireless security, this site attempts to catalogue and track vulnerabilites, rather than offering opinions. Check it out.

Posted on December 15, 2005 at 08:42 PM | Comments (0)

Web 2.0 Principles and Lessons

From Web 1.0 to Web 2.0 means ...
From DoubleClick to Google AdSense
From Ofoto to Flickr
From Akamai to BitTorrent
From mp3.com to Napster
From Britannica Online to Wikipedia
From personal websites to blogging
From evite to upcoming.org and EVDB
From domain name speculation to search engine optimization
From page views to cost per click
From screen scraping to web services
From publishing to participation
From content management systems to wikis
From directories (taxonomy) to tagging ("folksonomy")
From stickiness to syndication What Is Web 2.0

In this other "must read" article on advances on the Web (see my previous post The Web is Evolving, and so is its Supporting Cast), Tim O'Reilly explains the origins of the term Web 2.0 and lays out the underlying principles that led he and his colleagues to come up with this terminology and the lessons learned from taking this Web 2.0 perspective.

1. The Web is a platform where the value of the software is proportional to the scale and dynamism of the data it helps to manage, i.e., build bridges to more data, not fences around your data (e.g., Google). Leverage customer-self service and algorithmic data management to reach out to the entire web, to the edges and not just the center, to the long tail and not just the head (e.g., Overture and AdSense). The service automatically gets better the more people use it (e.g., BitTorrent).

2. Embrace the power of the web to harness collective intelligence, so that network effects from user contributions are the key to market dominance (e.g., Wikpedia). Blogs are the best example of this principle. ... like Wikipedia, blogging harnesses collective intelligence as a kind of filter. What James Suriowecki calls "the wisdom of crowds" comes into play, and much as PageRank produces better results than analysis of any individual document, the collective attention of the blogosphere selects for value.

3. Data is the next Intel Inside, as data become the building blocks for Web 2.0 applications (e.g., GoogleMaps). O'Reilly envisions a coming battle over control as data owners line up against applications that seek to leverage that data.

4. End of the Software Release Cycle. When software is viewed as a service rather than a product, operations that ensure service quality become a core competency, users become co-developers, and development moves from an episodic activity characterized by releases, to a constant activity marked by fluid updates.

5. Lightweight programming models drive several shifts, lightweight programming models that allow for loosely coupled systems, a preference for syndication over coordination, and designs that anticipate being hacked and mixed on the back end (designers start the process and let the hordes of smart programers leverage their creativity to continue the process beyond the original vision, in new - and unpredictable - directions).

6. Software Above the Level of a Single Device is a paradigm shift required by web-based businesses, where the web and web services pull together resources to provide a service not possible without a network paradigm. iTunes and TiVo are examples of services that manage data as a service and leverage network dynamics.

7. Rich User Experiences. As new applications are written with the Web as a platform, the creators can leverage not only the new capabilities that network dynamics make available, but also the best of the old PC-based applications, which results in a delightful, new, rich user experience. This transistion provides new companies with a great opportunity, and incumbents with an ongoing challenge.

I'll close this post by emphasizing the dynamic nature of the changes we are in the middle of, and the need for a robust broadband data infrastructure to complement such Web evolution. If you'd like to see my opinions in more detail, take a look at my whitepaper from this spring, UnwireMyCity On Structural Change. For his part, O'Neill concludes with this set of core competencies for any outfit that purports to be a "Web 2.0 Company."

Let's close, therefore, by summarizing what we believe to be the core competencies of Web 2.0 companies:

* Services, not packaged software, with cost-effective scalability
* Control over unique, hard-to-recreate data sources that get richer as more people use them
* Trusting users as co-developers
* Harnessing collective intelligence
* Leveraging the long tail through customer self-service
* Software above the level of a single device
* Lightweight user interfaces, development models, AND business models

The next time a company claims that it's "Web 2.0," test their features against the list above. The more points they score, the more they are worthy of the name. Remember, though, that excellence in one area may be more telling than some small steps in all seven.

Posted on December 15, 2005 at 12:56 PM | Comments (0)

The Web is Evolving, and so is its Supporting Cast

By now we're all familiar with the connection between the software we use and the hardware we use to run it. I'm typing on a 3-year old Dell Inspiron (Hey, I'm not cheap, but I am value-conscious). But I learned today that I will have to upgrade the security software I put on this computer when I bought it - it has become outmoded. This process is dynamic, ever changing. And soon, I'll have to upgrade my hardware to keep up with the new requirements I'm facing re speed and memory. New upgrades and new software and new types of content (MP3 files, MPEG files) require more processing power and more storage capacity, so we go buy new hardware, at least that's how this virtuous circle works in my house. It's exhausting to always be playing catch up and spending more on technology, but we are all pulled along by "progress," and we get off the train at our own risk.

In a similar way, the march of the Web in our lives is driving the need for improved infrastructure to give us better access to the Web. Cities can no more choose to avoid these changes than individuals can - we withdraw from this march at our own risk, making catching up that much harder when we finally are compelled to act. For instance, we increasingly need mobility options to keep up with the essential service the Web has become. Cell phones are making great strides with new features and functions, but as data devices, they still struggle with the limited bandwidth their infrastructure provides, and the large company focus on walled gardens and pay for content models is anathema to what we are used to on the Internet and the World Wide Web.

On this site and others, we're busy looking at competing approaches to such limitations. While one camp would craft software and mobile content to match the constraints of low data bandwidth (cellular and 3G), another camp would work to put in place infrastructure that has fewer such limitations (Wi Fi mesh and WiMax). Ultimately, like the memory and processing speed constraints of the early PC era, we can expect these bandwidth constraints to fade into the woodwork at some point - much of the excitement around technologies like Wi Fi mesh and WiMax has to do with providing us all with ubiquitious high-speed connectivity ahead of schedule. This infrastructure is the key to realizing the full potential in the writing of Kevin Kelly, and for people like Tim O'Reilly who talk about Web 2.0. There's that term again.

While I described those changes and the need to stay aware using the "boiling frog" analogy in a blog the other day, I think that this connection between the evolving web and the evolving infrastructure deserves more attention. What kind of infrstructure will we need to keep up with the what the Web is becoming for us?

The scope of the Web today is hard to fathom. The total number of Web pages, including those that are dynamically created upon request and document files available through links, exceeds 600 billion. That's 100 pages per person alive.

How could we create so much, so fast, so well? In fewer than 4,000 days, we have encoded half a trillion versions of our collective story and put them in front of 1 billion people, or one-sixth of the world's population. That remarkable achievement was not in anyone's 10-year plan.

The accretion of tiny marvels can numb us to the arrival of the stupendous. Today, at any Net terminal, you can get: an amazing variety of music and video, an evolving encyclopedia, weather forecasts, help wanted ads, satellite images of anyplace on Earth, up-to-the-minute news from around the globe, tax forms, TV guides, road maps with driving directions, real-time stock quotes, telephone numbers, real estate listings with virtual walk-throughs, pictures of just about anything, sports scores, places to buy almost anything, records of political contributions, library catalogs, appliance manuals, live traffic reports, archives to major newspapers - all wrapped up in an interactive index that really works. Kevin Kelly in Wired 13.08: We Are the Web

I just reread this article that Kevin Kelly wrote for Wired back in August of 2005. It's appropriate to take a look back as we approach the final days of 2005. This article goes one step further, looking back to the origins of the World Wide Web to show how much a part of our lives it has become, and how it will transform our future. Give yourselves an early Christmas present by pausing to read this article. Good job, Kevin. And pause for a moment with me to think about what these changes in how the web is used will impact business and economics.

What do these changes mean for your organization and the way you accomplish your goals and objectives? Does it make sense in 2006 to do things much the same way you did them in 2005, for instance? Do you have someone looking at the potential for disruptive change and how that will affect your organization?

We can go into the new year with some satisfaction that we are boldly entering a new era, but we should all keep in mind that infrastructure is foundational, and improvements in process and change are only as good as their underlying infrastructure. Progress begins here. That's why what's going on with the Web is relevant to what is going on with its supporting cast, that is, the wire line and wireless infrastructures that bring the Web to us. We must make sure that we have an infrastructure that will enable the Web to be all that it is bound to become.

Posted on December 15, 2005 at 12:08 PM | Comments (0)

Hedging Your Bets About the Future: Crystal Balls and Scenario Planning

Amazon.com: Powerful Times : Rising to the Challenge of Our Uncertain World: Books by Eamon Kelly

"Some of our most basic assumptions about the rules of the global economic game will increasingly come under attack in the coming decade." Eamon Kelly

The world has always been uncertain. But, says Eamonn Kelly, not like this. This book is published by the Wharton Business School Press, and Kelly is the founder of the Global Business Network, an interesting array of "big thinkers who take the long view" and use scenario planning to help hundreds of companies and governments manage the future. So, expectations are high for this book.

I was interested enough to pick it up in an airport book store - I'm a sucker for a good book when I'm traveling, and i was pleasantly surprised to find this one a well-written and intriguing work about what lays ahead in the next decade. Lots of disruption and uncertainty, if you buy this analysis.

This is a book for deep thinkers. Technological, financial, social, economic, cultural, and political systems - what makes up our world - are all moving faster and faster, towards greater complexity and interdependence, according to Kelly. Paradox rears it head here - paradox is a common element of our modern world. I wrote about paradox yesterday, where I explained that what we think we know is not necessarily true, and only by practicing an ever vigilant awareness and education program can we stay in the know.

Kelly explains that we humans seek patterns, but our simplifications of complex issues obscure more than they clarify, and our "either/or" mindsets don't really fit well in today's world. Foundational change is underway: Kelly demonstrates that deep, fundamental dynamics may be unraveling much of what we've taken for granted since the Enlightenment dawned some 400 years ago.

From the Amazon book review: Some of Kelly's dynamic tensions are less familiar, but also vitally important. For example, while value will continue to migrate towards the intangible - services, experiences, relationships - improving physical infrastructure will take on ever-greater urgency. The world is growing more transparent, thanks to a deepening web of computers, networks, sensors, and surveillance systems. However, "conspiracy theories and falsehoods will travel the world instantaneously," and the technologies of transparency will also promote more sophisticated theft and fraud.

For some, successfully navigating these tensions may seem unlikely, if not impossible. However, Kelly's reasonably optimistic. He sees especially significant progress in two key areas: "how we relate - the realm of governance - and how we create - the realm of innovation." Top-down, "Taylorist" organizations are being supplanted (or at least supplemented) by structures that are more fluid, self-organizing, decentralized, and collaborative. These new structures may be capable of handling change with far greater suppleness and resiliency. In Kelly's view, the move from organizational "citadels" to "webs" - while not inexorable - is currently moving more rapidly than many decision makers recognize.

Down at "street level," Kelly uncovers some surprising innovations in local governance. In British Columbia, 160 randomly selected citizens have recommended important changes in the province's electoral processes. In Zeguo, China, the local Communist Party secretary offered detailed briefings about several proposed municipal projects to 257 citizens, then polled them on which projects should proceed. In Brazil, Guatemala, and Mexico, enlightened local governments are experimenting with new ways to involve citizens year-round, not just on election day.

If you choose to be more aware, this is a book that would be good to have on your bookshelf. I'd like to read it again in two years, five years, and ten years, and see how things have unfolded. I know that ten years ago, I would not have imagined this future that is our present today.

Posted on December 14, 2005 at 08:20 AM | Comments (0)

Web 2.0, Cities, and Boiled Frogs

I am told the above instructions work because frogs are cold-blooded. This means its body temperature is the same as the surroundings, unlike us human beings. We are warm-blooded, meaning our body temperature is kept more or less constant, and does not follow that of our surroundings. We shiver in cold weather to keep up our body temperature. We sweat in warm weather to cool ourselves down. The frog's body temperature follows its surroundings. If you put the frog directly in boiling water, it will sense the heat immediately and jump out. But when you heat the water slowly, the frog keeps adjusting to the rising temperature. When the heat is too much for the frog to take, it is too late. The frog collapses and dies. www.snopes.com

Note to on-line journalists - check your literary and popular references first before publishing - I was about to use the frog in boiling water reference and thought I would Google it first. Unwittingly, I made my point the wrong way around. My angle was that we are now in a time in Internet and Web evolution that we have more changes around the corner (i.e., Web 2.0) that will have more impact on the way we do business than we can realize right now, and what we know is not necessarily the way things are. We are like the frog in water that slowly rises to a boil. By the time the frog realizes its in - pardon the pun - hot water, it's too late and he/she is boiled. This is a cautionary tale to be wary of evolutionary change and keep your sensors tuned to your environment. By the time we realize all the changes around us are really significant, my warning went, it will be too late to do anything about it. As It turns out, acc. to Snopes.com, this is yet another urban myth that is not true. But, its such a good story and it makes the point, so who cares if its entirely accurate. I'll roll with the punches and use Snopes.com instead of that old folk tale to make my point - just want to be on top of things with you all.

As an aside - I'm sitting in a Hot Spot in Austin as I type this blog - its 72 degrees F and sunny - on Dec 12 - this is one of those days when I'm reminded why I live in Austin, I guess. It makes those 100+ degree days in August somewhat easier to swallow, and sitting in a cafe reminds me of how much I enjoy getting out of the office. Note to self - do more of this in 2006.

Back to Snopes.com -

The legend is entirely incorrect! The 'critical thermal maxima' of many species of frogs have been determined by several investigators. In this procedure, the water in which a frog is submerged is heated gradually at about 2 degrees Fahrenheit per minute. As the temperature of the water is gradually increased, the frog will eventually become more and more active in attempts to escape the heated water. If the container size and opening allow the frog to jump out, it will do so. Don't try this experiment at home. Yuchh. So, we get the point, but if it were true, it would be a great analogy, wouldn't it!?!

Another entertaining read out there on the best seller list is Freakonomics by Stephen Dubner and Steven Levitt, a world class economist with an unconventional way of looking at things. This duo debunks a variety of common things we "know" through conventional wisdom, in a well-written and entertaining style that should leave the reader just a little less comfortable in their skin. It seems that even for those of us who count on being "in the know," what we "know" is no longer necessarily true. It's not enough that things are changing so fast we can't keep up, but also our new-found knowledge gets distorted even as it gets disseminated. So, back to Snopes.com - thank God for the Internet and the myriad tools that are popping up, so we can go right to the source with Google and find out for ourselves.

Finally, to the point. Those who read my posts know that I have to warm up a little, like clearing my throat. So here it is. I'd been hearing more and more about Web 2.0 Have you heard this term? It's been around for about 18 months, but it only seemed to start showing up on my screen enough for me to look into it in the last couple of months. So I decided to do a little homework and report back on what I found. I've read things like "its a load of hype" to "its the second coming of the Web." What makes it so relevant to me is that the values we hope to derive from the new infrastructure that takes all of my focus - metropolitan Wi Fi mesh networks and WiMax - those values will come from the innovation we are seeing under the heading Web 2.0.

But there is a common thread. Web 2.0 means using the web the way it's meant to be used. The "trends" we're seeing now are simply the inherent nature of the web emerging from under the broken models that got imposed on it during the Bubble. Paul Graham in his blog

Graham highlights three points in his blog: First, he says to take a look at Ajax, which is a new way of desiging Web applications that are more intuititve and easier to use. Second, he says that Democracy matters, highlighting things like Wikipedia and blogs, where normal people have access through the Web to make a difference, to gain an audience, and to impact the business world without having to go through the establishment, VCs, or an editor. Finally, Graham says that the new mantra of " Don't Maltreat Users" is vital to Web 2.0.

When you can reach millions through the Web, and interact with them at their pleasure, it pays to be as cheap as you can be, and as user-friendly as you can be, so that nobody can undercut you - if you aren't on your toes, your audience can leave you in a heartbeat (no matter if you're a really nice guy like me). I beilieve this is huge. In the Web 2.0 world, there are consequences for not putting your best foot forward with customers. That's good news for customers, and bad news for those slip shod outfits we all are tired of, and for those institutional incumbents who still believe that they own market share as some sort of Manifest_Destiny.

Here's another look in an essay called- the web 2.0 experience continuum. There's much more to talk about with Web 2.0, but I'm running long here.

What I'd like to leave those interested in wireless technologies and city government is this point. The days of being a late adopter, of playing it safe and getting by with minimal change are ending. City officials, just like private sector business people, need to adapt to the rules of Web 2.0 because their consituencies will increasingly have these tools at their disposal. The environment is changing more rapidly than we think, and the business and political structures and practices that we are used to will not be the same in 10 years, maybe even in 5 years. The extension of the Internet, helped along by technologies like Wi Fi mesh and WiMax will hasten this change, and we will have a completely new deck of cards to play with.

There is no way around doing your exercises and sit ups if you want a buff body, and there is no way around keeping on top of things by using the latest tools, if you want to stay in the know and avoid nasty surprises down the road. You're on the right path by reading this blog (and I hope many others) and by staying tuned to www.metronetiq.com and www.wimax.com . Stay in touch, so you can jump when the water gets too hot. OK, scratch that, I'll have to find a more topical reference that is "Snopes.com-proof."

Posted on December 12, 2005 at 01:41 PM | Comments (0)

Ode to those Disrupted by Structural Change

Do not go gentle into that good night,
Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Though wise men at their end know dark is right,
Because their words had forked no lightning they
Do not go gentle into that good night.

Good men, the last wave by, crying how bright
Their frail deeds might have danced in a green bay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Wild men who caught and sang the sun in flight,
And learn, too late, they grieved it on its way,
Do not go gentle into that good night.

Grave men, near death, who see with blinding sight
Blind eyes could blaze like meteors and be gay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

And you, my father, there on the sad height,
Curse, bless me now with your fierce tears, I pray.
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

-- Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night by Dylan Thomas

(Anytime I get a chance to quote good poetry, I should take it, right?) This poem for me describes what must be the attitude of those business executives in the unenviable position of being in charge of those companies whose business models are being disrupted by the changes from the maturation of the Internet, and its extension to all corners of the globe with outdoor technologies like Wi Fi Mesh and WiMax. We truly should not expect those displaced by such historic disruption to go quietly. It would be against human nature.

On a more pleasant note, looking at this Structural Change (see my whitepaper) from a different perspective, its actually Good News for the rest of us.

That's where we are headed, to a system where Microsoft doesn't control access to media as much as content controls its own use, and only the content creators get paid. And when it all comes together a decade from now, we'll see that for the very reasons I just described it was inevitable. And that's good news. I, Cringely . August 8, 2002 - Good News! | PBS

OK, so I had to go all the way back to August 2002 to find some good news for you guys. But hey, let's face it - we all need a little good news from time to time (especially when I quote depressing poems). That's why I'm going to plug Robert Cringley again - he writes a weekly column for PBS.org that is consistently one of the most upeat, prescient, insightful columns out there on the Web (and you know there's a lot of good stuff out there, so that's saying a whole lot). Check out Cringely's column, I, Cringely when you get a chance, and browse his archive of articles. You won't be disappointed. You'll also find Cringely listed in my list of Pundits and Blogs elsewhere on this site.

So, in this article enttiled "Good News! Tired of Negativism, Bob Looks Into the Future and Sees Ubiquitous Computing That Not Even Microsoft Can Control" Cringely makes predictions and does a damn good job of it. Wi Fi will take over home networking. Check. Mesh networking will prove to be a dynamite application. Check. UWB will be built into all of our home entertainment devices by 2005. Check. No, wait, oh, OK, so he's not perfect, but he did a good job - I didn't have a clue of this stuff three years ago. And interestingly, WiMax wasn't even on his radar back in August 2002.

I appreciate the insights that Cringely offers regarding content and mesh networking, near the end of this article.

With a fully-realized mesh network, non-private data (this column, a Nat King Cole CD, or a copy of "Debbie Does Dallas") resides where it resides and the issue becomes less one of location than ownership. This is the Digital Rights Management endgame that all the current industry players are missing. In their determination to not only control all the money, but to also administer a centralized distribution system, they don't see the power of leaving data where it lies. With five or five thousand or five million copies of an audio file or a movie already on the network, why do I have to get my copy from Warner Brothers, rather than from my neighbor? The issue finally comes down to compensation, and turning Warner Brothers from a distribution empire with hundreds of employees to a royalty acceptance web site with no employees means that royalties could drop by an order of magnitude and profits could stay the same.

See the reference to Schumpeter's Creative Destruction in my post from a few weeks back:. UnwireMyCity.com: Time for Municipal Broadband? Three years later and digital rights advocates are still fighting this fight, emboldened perhaps by court victories on DRM and their ability to push smaller companies around with their lawyers. But as compelling as their position is, and I believe in digital rights, by the way, I do not agree in maintaining the status quo for large distribution corporations at the expense of content creators. I hope that abusing the content creator is becoming an antiquated business practice.

Somehow I draw some consolation that distribution executives just cannot be sleeping well these days. I think they're afraid of these changes, don't like them one bit. How could they? Tthe Internet is like the Blob meets the Energizer Bunny - it just keeps going and going, and eating everything up in its path, leaving death and destruction in its wake. That has to be depressing for an established honcho in the line of fire. Personally, I would start looking for a new job.

Think of it this way. I just bought a "Lord of the Rings" DVD at Fry's Electronics for $16.95. That $16.95 has to support not only the movie production, but also an immense manufacturing, distribution, and marketing organization that at the end of the day probably yields two dollars or less in pure profit to the intellectual property owner. So why not cut out that manufacturing, distribution, and marketing operation - and its associated administrative overhead - and instead just hurl a copy of the movie onto the Net, let it propagate as demand dictates, with that same two dollars making its way back to the film makers from every subsequent owner? This is an example of the concept now referred to as The Long Tail, which is well described in this article by Chris Anderson of Wired magazine.

Basically, The Long Tail concept says that a few buyers of multitudes of niche content may well prove to be a more attractive market in the future than trying to compete for a multitude of buyers of a few mass-market Hits. The costs to distribute the mass-market stuff eats up much of the profit. With the help of the Internet, niche buyers can now seek out their content and if it's priced right, it's a quick sale (think iTunes and iPod). Michael Dell figured out that a shorter supply chain is the more efficient way to go, and look where he is, living in a 38,000 sq foot mansion on a hill up the street here in Austin. But in my experience, well-heeled established executives like say, those in the recording industry, do not tend to fold up their tents and go quietly into the night, they rage (see above). So I think we are in for a long struggle, with ups and downs for both sides.

So if we're in for more of our bumpy ride into the future, I recommend you hold on tight, keep your sense of humor, newcomers and displaced incumbents alike, and seek until you find what you want. Sellers, please try to align with new and changing market conditions, and don't try to stop the market from changing. Buyers, don't settle for mass-marketed goods that are too expensive, or of inferior quality and try new ways of doing things - hopefully that will keep up the pressure on the incumbents to innovate and adapt, or maybe they will fade away at some point. Either way, I agree with Cringely that this future he described three years ago has a sense of inevitability to it. So, connecting the dots from 2002 to 2005 and projecting forward, we can see that it really is a matter of When, not If, when it comes to digital content distribution.

Posted on December 01, 2005 at 05:51 PM | Comments (0)

What's the Opposite of a Pin-Drop Network?

For Mark Burris, Internet-based calling is a mixed blessing. Burris, who runs a branding and marketing business in Greensboro, N.C., is delighted because his Vonage service comes with cool features such as voicemail over the Web. Plus, it slashes about $260 a month off phone bills. The downside: glitches galore. So many calls are dropped -- as many as half -- that company employees all use their mobile phones to make outgoing calls. Burris' operations manager lately is spending upwards of a half-hour a day trying to get to the bottom of the problem. For now, "we are bearing it and going on," says Burris. But other companies and consumers taking the plunge into Internet-based calling may not be so patient.

VoIP Providers: Heeding the Call? Ouch! This article lays bare the dirty underbelly of the exciting new VOIP technology. A little harsh? Maybe, but is good to read something besides all the rah rah rah all the time about these new applications. I have heard that buzz before- residential yes, but not yet ready for business...

Still, I remember my first cell phone about 10 years ago, and I had dropped calls. And I've used the "Drop Network" to describe my cell phone service at my house even today. (names kept hidden to protect the guilty) So, if we accept such lousy service for cell phones because the price is right and they are an essential service, and we don't have any alternatives, my guess is that a sizeable chunk of the market will accept the poor service/cheap price trade off for VOIP as well. We can only hope that its service level improves faster than the "Drop Network" that I'm currently stuck with.

Posted on December 01, 2005 at 04:39 PM | Comments (0)

Ali v. Frazier? Godzilla v. Mothra? Texas v. USC?

When they're done spending their billions, the phone companies say, they will surpass their rivals. They promise a seemingly infinite number of channels, many in crisp high definition, and plenty of interactive tie-ins, like the ability to check e-mail messages or screen incoming telephone calls on the TV set. But as the Baby Bells know better than most, talk is cheap and the challenge is daunting. The capital expenditures are staggering. Holding little leverage with the content creators, they also end up paying more for programming than cable companies and satellite operators, who already hold the accounts of 92 million consumers and are rapidly making inroads into the telephone companies' own business of phone service.

Calling Out the Cable Guy - New York Times It's almost as if we all have ringside seats to watch Ali and Frazier duke it out. Or if you prefer, Godzilla and Mothra. As this article's analysis shows, when Cable gets its bundle together, and ATT & Verizon have theirs together, then we will begin to see more clearly who will be victorious. For now, it's fun sport to speculate on which system will prove superior to delivering high speed broadband, VOIP AND video, fulfilling the promise of interactive video features and a truly digital bundle. My friends at the satellite companies think they will be in the mix at some point as well. Don't count them out with their millions of subscribers and billions of dollars.

Were business like sports, we could better pick a clear winner. We would have a playoff like in college basketball, (and every other sport of note), or be stuck with computer and human polls, like with college football. Even though there are no polls, or bowls, for that matter, the speculation will continue in this new spectator sport. So pick your poison and see how you line up in this debate. Cable has its first mover advantage, while telecoms have their cash and political oomph. Cable has an easier job to provide VOIP than telecom has to provide video. Cable has deficient technology compared to fiber. DSL sucks. Muncipal broadband is coming on strong and will push down prices. WiMax will leave them all in the dirt (once it gets standardized).

Me, I'll keep my ringside seat in this struggle, but I'm also going to keep an eye on football. I'm ready to watch my Texas Longhorns whip up on those big city USC Trojans in the Rose Bowl. Now that's what I call a spectator sport.

Posted on December 01, 2005 at 03:48 PM | Comments (0)

I'l have the Combo, please

StarSight combines a street light -- something which can bring down crime rates dramatically -- with solar panel, wireless network (WiFi or WiMax), remote management, local network access, and (optionally) hookups for charging small devices.

WorldChanging: Another World Is Here: StarSight There's nothing like an awesome bundle to make one appreciate the heart of a good marketer. And this is an awesome bundle. This is really one of those cases where a picture is worth a thousand words, so click on the link to see a picture of this contraption. Whether for infrastructure in the Third World, or as an overlay in the Developed World, this approach has a lot of merit: a self-contained bundle of new technologies that elegantly addresses a number of society's needs with an integrated solution. I hope the price point is right and that they are successful at marketing this - it would be good to see this in production.

Posted on December 01, 2005 at 03:20 PM | Comments (0)