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One Crystal Ball Has This Future in Mind

Google says it wants to use the city of Mountain View as a test ground to show that giving people wireless Internet connections on a large scale is a good idea socially and financially. ``We believe that free (or very cheap) Internet access is a key to bridging the digital divide,'' Google product manager Minnie Ingersoll wrote in a letter Thursday to Mountain View city leaders. ``In our self-interest, we believe that giving more people the ability to access the Internet will drive more traffic to Google and hence more revenue to Google.'' Ingersoll continued, ``We are committed to showing the world that this technology works and we would like to learn more about the costs of operations so that we can build a well-informed business model.'' Google details Mtn. View WiFi plan

So Google is interested in deploying a wireless network in its hometown of Mt. View, CA, to check out metro-scale Wi Fi and verify the business model. This is good news, what we've all been waiting for. No, make that GREAT news! When giants decide to do something substantial, we will all be affected at some point. Google-watching is a fascinating sport.

Speaking of Google, I really enjoy the writing of Robert Cringely. In his weekly e-column on PBS.com, Cringely provides some of the best insights around. In the column below, he opines on Google and two other industry giants, Microsoft and WalMart. Many comparisons have been drawn between Microsoft and Google, given their size and influence on the technology world. But Cringely says the appropriate comparison is to WalMart, not Microsoft:

Sam Walton Taught Google More About How to Dominate the Internet Than Microsoft Ever Did
By Robert X. Cringely

Play to your strengths. That's the key to success in any industry. This is the week I promised to explain where I think Google is headed, and playing to the company's strengths is key if they are going to do what I think, which is effectively take over the Internet. Oh they won't steal it or strong-arm us. They'll seduce us into giving it to them. And I am not at all sure that's a bad thing.

Google's strengths are searching, development of Open Source Internet services, and running clusters of tens of thousands of servers. Notice on this list there is nothing about operating systems. There are many rumors about Google doing an operating system to compete with Microsoft. I'm not saying they aren't doing that (I simply don't know), but I AM saying it would not be a good idea, because it doesn't play to any of the company's traditional strengths.

The same follows for the rumor that Google, as a dark fiber buyer, will turn itself into some kind of super ISP. Won't happen. And WHY it won't happen is because ISPs are lousy businesses and building one as anything more than an experiment (as they are doing in San Francisco with wireless) would only hurt Google's earnings. Google-Mart

Cringely goes on to describe how Google is placing whole datacenters throughout the world to make data widely available at low latency to users. The focus on distribution of data mimics the focus that WalMart brought to the retail industry, only Google moves bits rather than physical goods. For ths model to really be complete, Google needs high-speed Internet ubiquity, and that's where municipal broadband comes in. I don't expect that Google is willing to wait while Verizon, ATT, Comcast, and TimeWarner push their version of broadband out to the world.

Call this Chapter One in a grand experiment that holds great promise for the municipal broadband industry. If Google puts its considerable weight behind this industry - the "Google Model" anyone? - to stimulate the Interent market and bring more and more people on line, then the pace of municipal deployments will pick up conisderably. How will it happen? Don't know, but the entry of Google into this industry will send a signal, as I say in the Vision Statement on the Home Page of this website. And that signal will say "Come on in, the water's fine!" and "Let's get Busy!" And then, the rush will be on.

Who knows, we may have to create an entirely new Google section on this website at some point. You should also check out a post I made on Google about a month ago GoogleNet? Not as Far Fetched as You Might Think.

Posted on November 20, 2005 at 07:24 PM

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