Oregon: EZ Wireless covers 600 sq miles

We can expect wireless network penetration to be different, however. It actually helps that rural areas are lacking in broadband now (demand) and that their populations are less dense, their territories less attractive to the big guys (less competition). First, wireless in its new forms (Wi Fi Mesh and WiMAX) is dramatically less expensive to install than wired networks, and goes in much quicker. Second, technology has matured and not only do we have a tremendous array of tools at our disposal, we also have lots of lessons on how to "get the job done" from an entrepreneurial perspective. Third, low barriers to entry mean that smaller providers will be there when rural area governments or businesses decide they need wireless networks. Web sites like mine are trying to raise the awareness level of the potential of such public-private partnerships and soon the benefits of such networks will be more and more common knowledge.

So Kristof poses an interesting challenge - how will urban wireless networks develop? and when? We're waiting on some RFPs to wind their way through the process, and this is a key challenge in larger cities - this is territory worth fighting for, and cable and telecom incumbents will do all in their power to slow any interlopers on "their turf." I expect prices to come tumbling down where wireless networks are installed. And I expect prices to come down when cable and telecom DSL start to slug it out. Just not as fast.

This prevailing view is shared by an accommodating FCC, which views an unshackled duopoly of cables and telecom DSL providers as the quickest route to broadband, equating deregulation with competition. So as you listen to the telecom establshment talk about a broadband blowout prize fight between the cables and the telecom DSL heavyweights following the DSL ruling on Friday, don't be surprised if the rollout of broadband doesn't happen quite as quickly as you might expect.

There are political hurdles to overcome and a duopoly, if that is what we end up with in urban areas, can be expected to move at its own pace, especially if the telecoms stick to their Fiber to the Home or Fiber to the Curb plans. There will most likely be further excuses for why penetration is not proceeding apace, now that they have slain the regulatory dragon. "Progress takes time," you can almost hear them say.

Urban areas will no doubt get their wired broadband, and in time prices will creep down, and some wireless networks as well. But for now, as Kristof suggests, wireless networks in rural areas seem like a sure thing. It may be that to get on a wireless network for free or next to free in the next two years, you will have to get in the car and drive ten miles out of town. Wouldn't that be ironic, for those who witnessed electricity's rollout 100 years ago, to witness today?