If You Build It, They Will Come

This editorial states that broadband is not a panacea, that there will be more heavy lifting after any network is in place. I agree. Also, if the new connectivity is only used for playing high-speed video games, the potential will be wasted. I agree again, but I think that is an extremely low probability. There are people who use their PCs as video game players, but few would make the argument that the PC was a wasted venture.

Infrastructure has always been an enabler. The railroads were built and provided for the movement of physical goods, and economies flourished along their routes - ask Chicago or St. Louis about the impact of railroads. The highways and Interstate system were built and provided for more movement of goods, and dramatic increases in personal mobility - ask Ford and GM about the impact of roads. Both infrastructures were enablers, and relative impact depended on where the routes went.

We all know about some roads that go nowhere, and the weeds grow on them, and we wonder how they got built. Often there were politics involved, which trumped good business planning. I think it comes down to sound business planning, with anticipated revenues planned out to cover costs. But broadband is a special kind of highway, and there is no chance that its roads will go nowhere. This highway connects the world, and it also can be used to create a local Intranet.

As the Qwest executive said the other day, words to the effect that "we don't need a superhighway when a sidewalk will do." While those are inflammatory words, I think the lesson holds that networks should be built to serve anticipated traffic and needs, with growth in mind. Not every town or region needs fiber. His words should ring true as a caution against overbuilding infrastructure in sparsely populated areas.

So, granted, broadband is no panacea and it will depend on what purpose a network serves, and if its capacity and cost match the anticipated uses. But show me any rich trade route in history that went unused, show me any communications network that did not follow Metcalfe's Rule by incressing in value as more people joined it. The nature of man is to connect with others - we are social. And in today's world, information is the be all and end all. History is in our corner on this one, and the odds are great that broadband will bring econmomic benefits to the regions that invest.

I think the bigger concern is paving the streets with gold, when blacktop will do. With the relatively low costs of wireless broadband, and the many uses it can find, its hard to think of a more sure-fire thing to come across the technology threshold in a long time. It's a conservative bet. In the case of wireless broadband, if you build it, they WILL come.